uber · edwinnglabs · Feb 13, 2021 · Nov 28, 2020 · Dec 4, 2020 · Dec 5, 2020
diff --git a/README.rst b/README.rst
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ This project
 - requires PyStan as a system dependency. PyStan is licensed under `GPLv3 <https://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-3.0.html>`__, which is a free, copyleft license for software.
 
 Orbit: A Python package for Bayesian forecasting models
-====================
+=======================================================
 
 Orbit is a Python package for Bayesian forecasting models developed under object-oriented design. It provides a
 familiar and intuitive initialize-fit-predict interface for working with

diff --git a/RELEASE.md b/RELEASE.md
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+# Orbit Release Process
+
+## Full Release
+1. Create a release branch from `dev`
+    - e.g. `release/v1.0.15`
+2. Update the version number in `orbit/__init__.py`. This version number will propagate to `docs/conf.py`, `setup.cfg`, and `setup.py`.
+3. Commit changes
+4. If necessary, additional PRs may be merged to the release branch directly, but this should be reserved for bug fixes only and should not add or change any features
+5. Merge the release branch to both `dev` and `master`
+6. Draft a new release: https://github.com/uber/orbit/releases/new
+    - Select the master branch as the target branch
+    - Use version number for both the tag and title
+    - Add a bulleted list of changes in the description
+7. Click `Publish Release` once all changes are finalized and description is updated
+
+
+## Quick Release
+Sometimes we just want to release a patch, and no subsequent commits are needed on the release branch.
+In this case, we can avoid creating the branch and create a release directly from dev.
+
+1. From `dev`, update the version number in `orbit/__init__.py`.
+2. Commit changes
+3. Merge to `master`
+4. Draft a new release: https://github.com/uber/orbit/releases/new
+    - Select the master branch as the target branch
+    - Use version number for both the tag and title
+    - Add a bulleted list of changes in the description
+
+
+## Hotfix
+Sometimes we may need to address a bug fix directly from master after a release, but `dev` may have moved on with new commits.
+
+1. Create a hotfix branch from master and update the version number
+2. Make fix
+3. Merge changes into `master`
+4. Draft a new release: https://github.com/uber/orbit/releases/new
+    - Select the master branch as the target branch
+    - Use version number for both the tag and title
+    - Add a bulleted list of changes in the description
+5. Merge changes into `dev`
diff --git a/docs/tutorials.rst b/docs/tutorials.rst
@@ -4,11 +4,11 @@ Tutorials
 .. toctree::
    :maxdepth: 1
 
-   tutorials/quick_start
-   tutorials/lgt
-   tutorials/dlt
+   tutorials/quick_start_DLT
+   tutorials/quick_start_LGT
    tutorials/regression
    tutorials/decompose_prediction
    tutorials/pyro_basic
    tutorials/model_diagnostics
    tutorials/backtest
+   tutorials/utilities_simulation
diff --git a/docs/tutorials/backtest.ipynb b/docs/tutorials/backtest.ipynb
diff --git a/docs/tutorials/decompose_prediction.ipynb b/docs/tutorials/decompose_prediction.ipynb
diff --git a/docs/tutorials/dlt.ipynb b/docs/tutorials/dlt.ipynb
diff --git a/docs/tutorials/lgt.ipynb b/docs/tutorials/lgt.ipynb
diff --git a/docs/tutorials/model_diagnostics.ipynb b/docs/tutorials/model_diagnostics.ipynb
diff --git a/docs/tutorials/pyro_basic.ipynb b/docs/tutorials/pyro_basic.ipynb
@@ -20,11 +20,11 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 2,
+   "execution_count": 1,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:03.673300Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:01.954298Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:20.816128Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:18.895302Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [],
@@ -41,11 +41,11 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 4,
+   "execution_count": 2,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:08.020386Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:08.017595Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:20.821909Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:20.818613Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [],
@@ -62,26 +62,25 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 5,
+   "execution_count": 3,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:19.234379Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:19.226006Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:30.197479Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:29.951038Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [],
    "source": [
-    "df = load_iclaims()\n",
-    "df[\"claims\"] = np.log(df[\"claims\"])"
+    "df = load_iclaims()"
    ]
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 6,
+   "execution_count": 4,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:19.614756Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:19.610808Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:30.203929Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:30.199787Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [],
@@ -107,11 +106,11 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 7,
+   "execution_count": 5,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:23.310264Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:23.306846Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:31.885441Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:31.881952Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [],
@@ -127,20 +126,20 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 8,
+   "execution_count": 6,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:33.627525Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:23.582567Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:42.550294Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:32.096916Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [
     {
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "CPU times: user 9.88 s, sys: 130 ms, total: 10 s\n",
-      "Wall time: 10 s\n"
+      "CPU times: user 10.3 s, sys: 130 ms, total: 10.4 s\n",
+      "Wall time: 10.4 s\n"
      ]
     }
    ],
@@ -151,11 +150,11 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 9,
+   "execution_count": 8,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:33.873416Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:33.629694Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:49.078952Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:48.850112Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [
@@ -172,7 +171,7 @@
    ],
    "source": [
     "predicted_df = lgt_map.predict(df=test_df)\n",
-    "plot_predicted_data(training_actual_df=train_df, predicted_df=predicted_df, \n",
+    "_ = plot_predicted_data(training_actual_df=train_df, predicted_df=predicted_df, \n",
     "                    date_col=lgt_map.date_col, actual_col=lgt_map.response_col, \n",
     "                    test_actual_df=test_df)"
    ]
@@ -193,11 +192,11 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 10,
+   "execution_count": 9,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:33.878749Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:33.875433Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:51.688900Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:51.685180Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [],
@@ -217,11 +216,11 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 11,
+   "execution_count": 10,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:45.942312Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:33.880710Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:54:05.996596Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:53:51.865111Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [
@@ -236,8 +235,8 @@
      "name": "stdout",
      "output_type": "stream",
      "text": [
-      "CPU times: user 11.8 s, sys: 244 ms, total: 12 s\n",
-      "Wall time: 12.1 s\n"
+      "CPU times: user 13.7 s, sys: 261 ms, total: 14 s\n",
+      "Wall time: 14.1 s\n"
      ]
     }
    ],
@@ -248,11 +247,11 @@
   },
   {
    "cell_type": "code",
-   "execution_count": 12,
+   "execution_count": 11,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:45.979904Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:45.943968Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:54:06.032273Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:54:05.998652Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [],
@@ -265,8 +264,8 @@
    "execution_count": 13,
    "metadata": {
     "ExecuteTime": {
-     "end_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:46.183371Z",
-     "start_time": "2020-10-14T01:02:45.981678Z"
+     "end_time": "2021-01-28T21:54:06.435012Z",
+     "start_time": "2021-01-28T21:54:06.234729Z"
     }
    },
    "outputs": [
@@ -282,7 +281,7 @@
     }
    ],
    "source": [
-    "plot_predicted_data(training_actual_df=train_df, predicted_df=predicted_df, \n",
+    "_ = plot_predicted_data(training_actual_df=train_df, predicted_df=predicted_df, \n",
     "                    date_col=lgt_vi.date_col, actual_col=lgt_vi.response_col, \n",
     "                    test_actual_df=test_df)"
    ]
@@ -304,7 +303,7 @@
    "name": "python",
    "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
    "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
-   "version": "3.6.8"
+   "version": "3.7.7"
   },
   "toc": {
    "base_numbering": 1,

diff --git a/docs/tutorials/quick_start.ipynb b/docs/tutorials/quick_start.ipynb