Updating links to pdf in website

Manuscript/Article/bib/biblio.bib

@@ -1306,7 +1306,7 @@ @Article{Requena-Suarez2019
 @Article{Harris2021,
   author    = {Nancy L. Harris and David A. Gibbs and Alessandro Baccini and Richard A. Birdsey and Sytze de Bruin and Mary Farina and Lola Fatoyinbo and Matthew C. Hansen and Martin Herold and Richard A. Houghton and Peter V. Potapov and Daniela Requena Suarez and Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta and Sassan S. Saatchi and Christy M. Slay and Svetlana A. Turubanova and Alexandra Tyukavina},
   title     = {Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes},
-  journal   = {Nature Climate Change},
+  journal   = {{Nature Climate Change}},
   year      = {2021},
   month     = jan,
   doi       = {10.1038/s41558-020-00976-6},

Manuscript/Org-mode/paper.org

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-p# -*- mode: org -*-
+# -*- mode: org -*-
 # -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
 
 # ==============================================================================
@@ -172,7 +172,7 @@ Min (Pg/yr): 0.432, Max (Pg/yr): 0.59, Diff (Pg/yr): 0.159, Inc (%): 37
 #+end_src
 
 #+begin_abstract
-Tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate due to human activities. Here, we provide spatial models of deforestation in 92 countries covering all the tropical moist forests in the world. Our models question the global effectiveness of protected areas in decreasing deforestation and reinterpret the impact of roads on deforestation in terms of both accessibility and forest fragmentation. Using our models, we derive high-resolution pantropical maps of the deforestation risk and future forest cover for the 21^{st} century under a "business-as-usual" scenario based on the deforestation rates observed in the 2010s. Under this scenario, 48% (39--56%) of tropical moist forests are expected to disappear during the course of the 21^{st} century, and many tropical countries will have lost all their forests by 2100. The remaining forests in 2100 will be highly fragmented and located in remote places. We also show that future deforestation will likely concern forests with higher carbon stocks, and hence that carbon emissions from tropical deforestation are expected to increase (up to 0.583--0.628 Pg/yr in 2100). Combined with the decreasing carbon absorption (down to 0.312 Pg/yr in 2100) due to the decrease in forest cover, tropical moist forests will likely become a strong net carbon source in the 21^{st} century.
+Tropical forests are disappearing at an alarming rate due to human activities. Here, we provide spatial models of deforestation in 92 countries covering all the tropical moist forests in the world. Our results question the global effectiveness of protected areas in decreasing deforestation and allow reinterpreting the impact of roads on deforestation in terms of both accessibility and forest fragmentation. Using our models, we derive high-resolution pantropical maps of the deforestation risk and future forest cover for the 21^{st} century under a "business-as-usual" scenario based on the deforestation rates observed in the 2010s. Under this scenario, 48% (39--56%) of tropical moist forests are expected to disappear during the course of the 21^{st} century, and many tropical countries will have lost all their forests by 2100. The remaining forests in 2100 will be highly fragmented and located in remote places. We also show that future deforestation will likely concern forests with higher carbon stocks, and hence that carbon emissions from tropical deforestation are expected to increase (up to 0.583--0.628 Pg/yr in 2100). Combined with the decreasing carbon absorption (down to 0.312 Pg/yr in 2100) due to the decrease in forest cover, tropical moist forests will likely become a strong net carbon source in the 21^{st} century.
 #+end_abstract
 
 @@latex:\keywords{@@
@@ -211,7 +211,9 @@ ascii(df, include.rownames=FALSE)
 
 @@latex:\significancestatement{@@
 
-Under a business-as-usual scenario of deforestation (i.e. projecting the 2010--2020 deforestation rates at the country level in the future), three quarters of the tropical moist forests that remained in 2000 will have disappeared by 2120, 2160, and 2220 in Asia, Africa, and America, respectively. By 2100, 41 tropical countries, plus 14 states in Brazil and one region in India, will lose all their tropical forests. Remaining forests will be highly fragmented and concentrated in remote areas (far from roads and towns), preferentially in protected areas, and at high elevations. Future deforestation will likely happen in forests with higher carbon stocks. In the absence of change in the deforestation rates, increase in carbon emissions from deforestation and decrease in carbon absorption due to reduction of forest cover will make tropical forests a major carbon source in the 21^{st} century.
+Projecting the 2010--2020 deforestation rates at the country level in the future, 75% of the tropical moist forests that remained in 2000 will have disappeared by ca. 2120, 2160, and 2220 in Asia, Africa, and America, respectively. By 2100, 41 countries, plus 14 states in Brazil and one region in India, will lose all their tropical forests. Remaining forests will be highly fragmented and concentrated in remote areas (far from roads and towns), preferentially in protected areas, and at high elevations. Future deforestation will likely happen in forests with higher carbon stocks. Increase in carbon emissions from deforestation and decrease in carbon absorption due to forest cover loss will make tropical forests a major carbon source in the 21^{st} century.
+
+# Under a business-as-usual scenario of deforestation (i.e. projecting the 2010--2020 deforestation rates at the country level in the future), three quarters of the tropical moist forests that remained in 2000 will have disappeared by ca. 2120, 2160, and 2220 in Asia, Africa, and America, respectively. By 2100, 41 tropical countries, plus 14 states in Brazil and one region in India, will lose all their tropical forests. Remaining forests will be highly fragmented and concentrated in remote areas (far from roads and towns), preferentially in protected areas, and at high elevations. Future deforestation will likely happen in forests with higher carbon stocks. In the absence of change in the deforestation rates, increase in carbon emissions from deforestation and decrease in carbon absorption due to reduction of forest cover will make tropical forests a major carbon source in the 21^{st} century.
 
 @@latex:}@@
 
@@ -646,7 +648,7 @@ ascii(df)
 
 Here we show that protected areas significantly reduce the risk of deforestation in 70 study areas out of 119 (59% of the study areas). These 70 study areas accounted for 88% of the tropical moist forest in 2010 ([[SI:][/SI Appendix/, Table S6]]). Although this result shows a statistically significant effect of protected areas on the risk of deforestation in most of the study areas, the effectiveness of protected areas at reducing tropical deforestation is less evident. First, the magnitude of the effect is relatively low. On average, we found that protected areas reduce the risk of deforestation by 34% (Figs. [[fig:prob]], [[fig:proba-var]] and [[SI:][/SI Appendix/, Table S5]]). In a recent global study, [cite/t:@Wolf2021] estimated that deforestation was 41% lower inside protected areas, a value higher than our estimate which is restricted to tropical moist forests. This means that protected areas do not prevent deforestation (deforestation does not stop at the boundaries of the protected areas) and that the risk of deforestation is only reduced to some extent within protected areas. Second, our study shows that the effect of protected areas is very variable from one region to another ([[SI:][/SI Appendix/, Table S6]]). For 18 countries or regions with a forest cover greater than 1 Mha in 2010, the effect of protected areas in reducing deforestation was not significant. Some of these countries or regions, such as the Amapa state in Brazil, Gabon, or Papua New Guinea, have very low historical deforestation rates ($\leq$ 0.10% in 2010--2020) so that it seems complicated to reduce further the deforestation with a protected area network. But for some other countries or regions such as the Tocantins state in Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast or Nigeria, which have high historical deforestation rates ($\ge$ 1% in 2010--2020), protected areas are ineffective at reducing deforestation on average. Moreover, when considering countries or regions with a forest cover greater than 1 Mha in 2010 where protected areas significantly reduce the risk of deforestation, the decrease in the risk of deforestation within protected areas varies considerably (standard deviation = 18.72%) from 2% (for the Bahia state in Brazil) to 82% (for Malaysia).
 
-Like other studies reporting the effect of protected areas on deforestation [cite:@Wolf2021; @Yang2021; Andam2008], our study shows that protected areas are effective on average in \emph{displacing} deforestation outside protected areas in tropical countries, but not necessarily that protected areas play a role in \emph{reducing} the deforestation intensity per se. Indeed, the factors that drive the intensity of deforestation at the country scale are more socio-economic or political, such as the level of economic development, which determines people's livelihood and the link between people and deforestation [cite:@Geist2002], the size of the population [cite:@Barnes1990], or the environmental policy [cite:@Soares-Filho2014]. In tropical countries with weak governance (where environmental law enforcement is low) and with a low level of development (where the pressure on forests is high), it is very unlikely that protected areas will remain forested. Under a business-as-usual deforestation scenario, we assume that the deforestation intensity will remain constant over time. When all forests outside protected areas will have disappeared, deforestation is expected to occur inside protected areas (Fig. [[fig:fcc2100]]). In this scenario, protected areas are efficient at protecting forest areas of high and unique biodiversity in the medium term, i.e., forests will be concentrated in protected areas, where the probability of deforestation is lower. In the long term, under a business-as-usual scenario, forests will completely disappear from protected areas (Fig. [[fig:fcc2100]]). This phenomenon is already clearly visible in countries or states where deforestation is advanced, such as in Rondonia state (Brazil) in South America [cite:@Ribeiro2005], Ivory Coast [cite:@Sangne2015] or Madagascar [cite:@Vieilledent2020] in Africa, or Cambodia [cite:@Davis2015] in Southeast Asia. In these countries, several forested protected areas have been entirely deforested (e.g., the Haut-Sassandra protected forest in Ivory Coast, or the PK-32 Ranobe protected area in Madagascar) or severely deforested (e.g., the Beng Per wildlife sanctuary in Cambodia).
+Like other studies reporting the effect of protected areas on deforestation [cite:@Wolf2021; @Yang2021; @Andam2008], our study shows that protected areas are effective on average in \emph{displacing} deforestation outside protected areas in tropical countries, but not necessarily that protected areas play a role in \emph{reducing} the deforestation intensity per se. Indeed, the factors that drive the intensity of deforestation at the country scale are more socio-economic or political, such as the level of economic development, which determines people's livelihood and the link between people and deforestation [cite:@Geist2002], the size of the population [cite:@Barnes1990], or the environmental policy [cite:@Soares-Filho2014]. In tropical countries with weak governance (where environmental law enforcement is low) and with a low level of development (where the pressure on forests is high), it is very unlikely that protected areas will remain forested. Under a business-as-usual deforestation scenario, we assume that the deforestation intensity will remain constant over time. When all forests outside protected areas will have disappeared, deforestation is expected to occur inside protected areas (Fig. [[fig:fcc2100]]). In this scenario, protected areas are efficient at protecting forest areas of high and unique biodiversity in the medium term, i.e., forests will be concentrated in protected areas, where the probability of deforestation is lower. In the long term, under a business-as-usual scenario, forests will completely disappear from protected areas (Fig. [[fig:fcc2100]]). This phenomenon is already clearly visible in countries or states where deforestation is advanced, such as in Rondonia state (Brazil) in South America [cite:@Ribeiro2005], Ivory Coast [cite:@Sangne2015] or Madagascar [cite:@Vieilledent2020] in Africa, or Cambodia [cite:@Davis2015] in Southeast Asia. In these countries, several forested protected areas have been entirely deforested (e.g., the Haut-Sassandra protected forest in Ivory Coast, or the PK-32 Ranobe protected area in Madagascar) or severely deforested (e.g., the Beng Per wildlife sanctuary in Cambodia).
 
 # Forested protected areas are usually located in areas of high or unique biodiversity, in a non-random way. They are also usually found in remote places with less human disturbances and reduced accessibility, i.e. far from roads or cities, and usually at higher elevation ([[SI][/SI Appendix/, Fig. S6]]), because low-lying arable lands have already been preempted for agriculture [cite:@Geist2002]. As a consequence, it is often difficult to unravel the effect of protected areas from other correlated variables, for example distance to the nearest road, city, or elevation [cite:@Andam2008]. The multivariate logistic regression model we use makes it possible to disentangle the effect of each explanatory variable in the spatial deforestation process. Moreover, the spatial random effects included in our model (see Methods and [[SI:][/SI Appendix/, Fig. S8, S9]]) correct the potential bias in the protected area effect that could be associated with other unmeasured confounding variables, such as population density [cite:@Andam2008].
 

Website/index.Rmd

@@ -38,8 +38,8 @@ This website is accompanying the following scientific article:
 Spatial scenario of tropical deforestation and carbon emissions for the 21^st^ century.
 _bioRxiv_.
 doi: [10.1101/2022.03.22.485306](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.03.22.485306).
-[![manuscript in pdf](images/logo-pdf.png "manuscript in pdf")](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.22.485306v1.full.pdf)
-Supplementary Information [![SI](images/logo-zip.png "supplementary information")](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2022/03/25/2022.03.22.485306/DC1/embed/media-1.pdf)
+[![manuscript in pdf](images/logo-pdf.png "manuscript in pdf")](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.22.485306v2.full.pdf)
+Supplementary Information [![SI](images/logo-zip.png "supplementary information")](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2022/07/23/2022.03.22.485306/DC1/embed/media-1.pdf)
 
 
 ### Interactive maps