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fix(experiments): Calculate win probability against control #27804

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merged 17 commits into from
Jan 29, 2025

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danielbachhuber
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@danielbachhuber danielbachhuber commented Jan 22, 2025

See #26713
See https://posthog.slack.com/archives/C07PXH2GTGV/p1737374020186379

Changes

Switches all three win probability calculations to calculate the win probability solely against the control, instead of absolute win probability. Docs update: PostHog/posthog.com#10437

Tests document the difference between v1 and v2 behavior.

How did you test this code?

Tests should pass.

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Nice!

This tool-tip explanation is outdated now
Screenshot 2025-01-23 at 13 43 02

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github-actions bot commented Jan 23, 2025

Size Change: -5 B (0%)

Total Size: 1.16 MB

ℹ️ View Unchanged
Filename Size Change
frontend/dist/toolbar.js 1.16 MB -5 B (0%)

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📸 UI snapshots have been updated

1 snapshot changes in total. 0 added, 1 modified, 0 deleted:

  • chromium: 0 added, 1 modified, 0 deleted (diff for shard 1)
  • webkit: 0 added, 0 modified, 0 deleted

Triggered by this commit.

👉 Review this PR's diff of snapshots.

@PostHog PostHog deleted a comment from posthog-bot Jan 24, 2025
@PostHog PostHog deleted a comment from posthog-bot Jan 24, 2025
@PostHog PostHog deleted a comment from posthog-bot Jan 24, 2025
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📸 UI snapshots have been updated

1 snapshot changes in total. 0 added, 1 modified, 0 deleted:

  • chromium: 0 added, 1 modified, 0 deleted (diff for shard 1)
  • webkit: 0 added, 0 modified, 0 deleted

Triggered by this commit.

👉 Review this PR's diff of snapshots.

@danielbachhuber danielbachhuber merged commit d28991b into master Jan 29, 2025
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@danielbachhuber danielbachhuber deleted the experiments/win-probability branch January 29, 2025 20:05
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3 participants