The law of total probability, Bayes rule, and the sum-to-one rule are all properties of probabilities. These properties can be described with a cross-table that includes the cell probabilities, conditional row probabilities, conditional column probabilities, and row/column margins.
In this assignment, you will produce a video blog post to explain how to use a cross-table to answer a popular job interview question often posed to individuals seeking a quantitative position.
Question:
Suppose there are 5 coins. Four of the coins are fair with P(heads)=0.5, and one of the coins is biased with P(heads)=0.75. Suppose a coin is randomly selected and flipped 4 times resulting in 4 heads.
What is the probability that the selected coin was biased? That is, what is P(biased coin selected | HHHH)?
Video Blog:
The audience of your blog post is the undergraduate student body at Vanderbilt. The blog post should explain how to use a cross-table to solve the interview question. Getting the correct answer is not sufficient, the post must explain how you got the answer.
- Start a zoom session. (vanderbilt.zoom.us)
- Record the session to the cloud.
- Use the screen sharing and whiteboard features to explain the cross table and your solution to the interview question.
- After you close the zoom session and the video is processed, you will get an email with a link to the video to share.
- Within the repo
Probability and Inference Portfolio Lastname Firstname, create a folder called02b-interview-question. - Within the folder, create the file
videolink.txt. The text of the file should be a link to the video. - (Optional) Within the folder, include any visuals you used in the video.
- Edit the README to be an index for the portfolio.
- Be prepared to share your video blog post with the class when the deliverable is due.
- The deliverable should be your own work.