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global-warming.html
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<head profile="http://gmpg.org/xfn/11">
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"></meta>
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" media="screen" href="blog.css"/>
<link rel='shortcut icon' href='favicon.ico' />
<title>Global Warming</title>
<style type="text/css" media="screen">
ul {
line-height: 1.6;
}
</style>
</head>
<body class="regtext">
<h2 class="regtext">Global Warming</h2>
<hr/>
<h4 class="regtext">Large historic variability before fossil fuels</h4>
<ul class="regtext">
<li>CO2 Concentration - has varied from 200 - 5000+ ppm [2, p201]. Current level is 400ppm.</li>
<li>Polar Ice - during most of the earth's history the poles have been ice-free [1, p38]</li>
<li>Temperature - Before the end of the Mesozoic era climates were substantially warmer than today [1, p39]</li>
<li>Glacier Retreat - The Scandinavian ice sheet retreated at the rate of about 1km per year between about 10,000 and 9000 years ago [1, p154]</li>
<li>Temperature - The last postglacial thermal maximum was reached about 6000 years ago, and climates since then have undergone a gradual cooling. [1, p181]</li>
<li></li>
<li></li>
<li></li>
</ul>
<p class="regtext">
[1] National Academy of Sciences / National Research Council, "Understanding Climatic Change," 1975, ISBN 0-309-02323-8,
<a href="https://archive.org/details/understandingcli00unit/page/n7">full text from internet archive (accessed Nov 1, 2019)</a>
<br/>
[2] Berner & Kothavala (Yale), "Geocarb III: A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 Over Phanerozoic Time," Feb 2001, American Journal of Science Vol 301 p.182-204,
<a href="http://earth.geology.yale.edu/~ajs/2001/Feb/qn020100182.pdf">Full text (accessed Nov 1, 2019)</a>
</p>
<h4 class="regtext">Model failures</h4>
<ul class="regtext">
<li>IPPC 1990: average global-mean temp increase of 0.3C per decade (uncertainty range 0.2 - 0.5C per deacde) [3, p.73] Actual: 0.14C/decade from 1990 to 2018 [4]</li>
<li>Glacier National Park 2017: computer models show all glaciers will be melted by 2020 [5] Actual: still glaciers</li>
<li></li>
<li></li>
</ul>
<p class="regtext">
[3] IPPC 1990 Assessment, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/ipcc_90_92_assessments_far_full_report.pdf">full text (accessed Nov 1, 2019)</a>
<br/>
[4] NASA Global temperature chart, <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/">link (accessed Nov 1, 2019)</a>, showing anomaly 0.44 in 1990, 0.82 in 2018.
<br/>
[5] Visitor photos of Glacier National Park signs and diorama.
<a href="http://lysanderspooneruniversity.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/IMG_0159.jpg">example</a>,
<a href="https://dandltravel.blogspot.com/2016/07/glacier-national-park.html">example</a>,
<a href="https://youtu.be/Afa6mMMuZhg">example video</a>
</p>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<hr/>
<h3>Global Cooling in 1970s</h3>
<h4>1) NOAA Magazine, Oct 1974, Volume 4 Number 4</h4>
<ul class="regtext">
<li><b>Text Excerpt</b> - Many climatologists have associated this [prolonged African] drought and other recent weather anomalies with a global cooling trend and changes in atmospheric circulation which, if prolonged, pose serious threats to major food-producing regions of the world.</li>
<li><b>Text Excerpt</b> - There is reason to believe, for example, that rice was once grown far north of its present boundary in parts of Asia.</li>
<li><b>Text Excerpt</b> - Some climatologists think that the present cooling trend may be the start of a slide into another period of major glaciation, popularly called an "ice age." Many other scientists disagree. J Murray Mitchell Jr [...] a world authority on climate change, comments, "We observe these trends, and we know they are real. But we can't find the central tendancy; we just don't know how long they will last." Mitchell himself suspects that the present cooling trend will reverse itself rather soon.</li>
<li><b>Text Excerpt</b> - In summary, the current cooling trend may be but a temporary climatic variation, it may lead to another "Little Ice Age," or it may, indeed, signal the death of the present interglacial period. We do not know. We may never know. Whatever the case, a study of the past reveals that the Earth's climate is highly variable - indeed, that variability is one of its fundamental characteristics. </li>
<li><b>Original Source</b> - NOAA Magazine, October 1974, Volume 4 Number 4 -
<a href="https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/journals/noaa/QC851U461974oct.pdf">original url</a>
(no longer works)</li>
<li><b>Source archive</b> - (accessed Nov 1, 2019) -
<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170207000730/https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/journals/noaa/QC851U461974oct.pdf">NOAA url at internet archive of Feb 07 2017</a></li>
<li><b>Local copy</b> -
<a href="noaa-oct-1974.pdf">link</a></li>
<li><b></b></li>
</ul>
<h3>Historic Perspective</h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Raw Text Excerpt</b> - For most of Earth's history our planet had no permanent ice cover</li>
</ul>
<h3>Actual Hurricane Trends</h3>
<h3>Drought</h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Raw Text Excerpt</b> - In India, for example, before the global warming trend of 1890-1940, severe drought struck about once every four years. With the warming, however, and more abundant monsoon rains, drought came only once every 18 years or so, greatly increasing India's grain production. Some climatologists think that if the current cooling trend continues, drought will occur more frequently in India - indeed, through much of Asia</li>
</ul>
<hr/>
<h3>Old Links</h3>
<ul>
<li>Nature:
<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n9/full/nclimate3111.html">
land area has increased</a> (absolute & relative) in past 30 years [upon inspection, appears to be local phenomena, irrelevant]</li>
<li><a href="http://www.populartechnology.net/2013/02/the-1970s-global-cooling-alarmism.html">
List of articles and videos</a> for 1970s global cooling</li>
<li><a href="http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/journals/noaa/QC851U461974oct.pdf#page=5">
NOAA 1974 issue</a> that mentions cooling</li>
<li>NOAA Greenland Ice core data:
<img src="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.gif"/></li>
<li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kGB5MMIAVA">
Leonard Nimoy narration</a> of a science video (1978).
<i>"climate experts believe the next ice age is on its way";
"sea coasts, long free of summer ice, are now blocked year round";
"according to some climatologists, within a lifetime, we might be living in the next ice age"</i></li>
<li><a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/18/climate-alarmists-try-to-redefine-what-a-hurricane-is-so-well-have-more-of-them/">
Graph of Atlantic hurricane history</a> -- unclear source</li>
<li><a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/14/30-peer-reviewed-studies-show-no-connection-between-climate-change-and-hurricanes/">
Great link to 30 peer reviewed studies on hurricane intensity</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf">NOAA study (pdf)</a>
showing low recent hurricane activity (pg 17)</li>
<li><a href="http://linkis.com/wiley.com/lXQQS">300 Year continuous hurricane count from Antilles</a> -- shows no increase</li>
</ul>
Other notes for future writing:
Temp and co2 are highest ever?
W/m2 of carbon forcing is a large perturbation relative to others?
Earth is delicate feedback loop and life has been destroyed by high co2/temps?
Sea levels are rising?
Best models predict the actual future?
</body>