master: 
https://nmfs-fish-tools.github.io/SSMSE/
- Supported by the NOAA Fisheries Integrated Toolbox
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Note that the SSMSE is a work in progress and not yet a minimum viable product.
To install SSMSE from github:
remotes::install_github("nmfs-fish-tools/SSMSE")You can read the help files with
?SSMSESuppose we want to look at 2 scenarios, one where Steepness (H) is specified correctly and one where it is specified incorrectly in an estimation model (EM):
- H-ctl: Cod operating model (H = 0.65) with correctly specified cod model EM (fixed H = 0.65)
- H-1: Cod operating model (OM; H = 1) with misspecified cod model EM (fixed H = 0.65)
Note that this is a toy example and not a true MSE, so the OM and EM structures for both scenarios are identical, except for different steepness between the OM and EM in scenario 2. We will assume we want to run the MSE loop for 6 years, with a stock assessment occuring every 3 years. The cod model’s last year is 100, so the OM is initially conditioned through year 100. Then, after conditioning the operating model through year 100, assessments will occur in years 100, 103, and 106. Note that the assessment run in year 106 will generate future catch for years 107, 108, and 109, but the future catch values are not input into the operating model because the MSE loop is specified to only run through year 106).
First, we will load the SSMSE package and create a folder in which to
run the example:
## Loading SSMSE
library(SSMSE) #load the package
library(r4ss) #install using remotes::install_github("r4ss/r4ss@development)# Create a folder for the output in the working directory.
run_SSMSE_dir <- file.path("run_SSMSE-ex")
dir.create(run_SSMSE_dir)The cod model with H = 0.65 is included as external package data. However, we will need to modify it to use as an operating model with H = 1.
cod_mod_path <- system.file("extdata", "models", "cod", package = "SSMSE")
# copy to a new location:
file.copy(from = cod_mod_path, to = run_SSMSE_dir, recursive = TRUE)
## [1] TRUE
file.rename(from = file.path(run_SSMSE_dir, "cod"), to = file.path(run_SSMSE_dir, "cod-1"))
## [1] TRUE
cod_1_path <- file.path(run_SSMSE_dir, "cod-1")
# make model read initial values from control file and not ss.par
start <- r4ss::SS_readstarter(file = file.path(cod_1_path, "starter.ss"), verbose = FALSE)
start$init_values_src # verify reading from the control file
## [1] 0
# change the natural mortality paramter from 0.2 to 0.1 in the control files
r4ss::SS_changepars(dir = cod_1_path, ctlfile = "control.ss_new",
newctlfile = "control_modified.ss", strings = "SR_BH_steep", newvals = 1)
## parameter names in control file matching input vector 'strings' (n=1):
## [1] "SR_BH_steep"
## These are the ctl file lines as they currently exist:
## LO HI INIT PRIOR PR_SD PR_type PHASE env_var&link dev_link dev_minyr
## 107 0.2 1 0.65 0.7 0.05 0 -4 0 0 0
## dev_maxyr dev_PH Block Block_Fxn Label Linenum
## 107 0 0 0 0 SR_BH_steep 107
## line numbers in control file (n=1):
## 107
## wrote new file to control_modified.ss with the following changes:
## oldvals newvals oldphase newphase oldlos newlos oldhis newhis oldprior
## 1 0.65 1 -4 -4 0.2 0.2 1 1 0.7
## newprior oldprsd newprsd oldprtype newprtype comment
## 1 0.7 0.05 0.05 0 0 # SR_BH_steep
# remove files with M = 0.2
file.remove(file.path(cod_1_path, "control.ss_new"))
## [1] TRUE
file.remove(file.path(cod_1_path, "control.ss"))
## [1] TRUE
file.remove(file.path(cod_1_path, "ss.par")) # delete control file because no longer need.
## [1] TRUE
# rename file with M = 0.1 to control.ss_new () and make a copy as the control file
file.rename(from = file.path(cod_1_path, "control_modified.ss"),
to = file.path(cod_1_path, "control.ss"))
## [1] TRUERerun this model with no estimation to get valid ss.par and control.ss_new files:
# run SS with no estimateion
SSMSE:::run_ss_model(dir = cod_1_path,
admb_options = "-maxfn 0 -phase 50 -nohess",
verbose = FALSE)The argument sample_struct specifies the structure for sampling from
the OM (and passing to the EM). The function create_sample_struct can
be used to construct a simple sampling structure consistent with an
input data file:
EM_datfile <- system.file("extdata", "models", "cod", "ss3.dat", package = "SSMSE")
sample_struct <- create_sample_struct(dat = EM_datfile, nyrs = 6) # note warning
## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): Pattern not found for lencomp: FltSvy 1, Seas 1.
## Returning NA for Yr in this dataframe.
sample_struct
## $catch
## Yr Seas FltSvy SE
## 1 101 1 1 0.005
## 2 102 1 1 0.005
## 3 103 1 1 0.005
## 4 104 1 1 0.005
## 5 105 1 1 0.005
## 6 106 1 1 0.005
##
## $CPUE
## Yr Seas FltSvy SE
## 1 105 7 2 0.2
##
## $lencomp
## Yr Seas FltSvy Sex Part Nsamp
## 1 NA 1 1 0 0 125
##
## $agecomp
## Yr Seas FltSvy Sex Part Ageerr Lbin_lo Lbin_hi Nsamp
## 1 105 1 2 0 0 1 -1 -1 500The sample structure specifies that catch will be added to the
estimation model every year (years 101 to 106), but an index of
abundance (i.e., CPUE) and age composition (i.e., agecomp) will only be
added in year 105. The user could modify this sampling strategy (for
example, maybe age composition should also be sampled from FltSvy 2 in
Yr 102; the user could add another line to the dataframe in
sample_struct$agecomp).
Note that length comp (lencomp) includes an NA value for year. This is
because no consistent pattern was identified, so the user must define
their own input. In this case, we will remove sampling length comps all
together:
sample_struct$lencomp <- NULL # don't use length samplingThe same sampling structure will be used for both scenarios:
sample_struct_list <- list("H-ctl" = sample_struct, "H-1" = sample_struct)We can now use run_SSMSE to run the MSE analysis loop:
run_res_path <- file.path(run_SSMSE_dir, "results")
dir.create(run_res_path)
# run 1 iteration and 1 scenario of SSMSE using an EM.
run_SSMSE(scen_name_vec = c("H-ctl", "H-1"), # name of the scenario
out_dir_scen_vec = run_res_path, # directory in which to run the scenario
iter_vec = c(5,5), # run with 5 iterations each
OM_name_vec = NULL, # specify directories instead
OM_in_dir_vec = c(cod_mod_path, normalizePath(cod_1_path)), # OM files
EM_name_vec = c("cod", "cod"), # cod is included in package data
MS_vec = c("EM","EM"), # The management strategy is specified in the EM
use_SS_boot_vec = c(TRUE, TRUE), # use the SS bootstrap module for sampling
nyrs_vec = c(6, 6), # Years to project OM forward
nyrs_assess_vec = c(3, 3), # Years between assessments
rec_dev_pattern = c("none"), # Don't use recruitment deviations
impl_error_pattern = c("none"), # Don't use implementation error
sample_struct_list = sample_struct_list, # How to sample data for running the EM.
seed = 12345) #Set a fixed integer seed that allows replication The function SSMSE_summary_all can be used to summarize the model
results in a list of dataframes. Note that if you have issues, try
reinstalling SSMSE using
remotes::install_github("nmfs-fish-tools/SSMSE") and restarting your R
session. Also, make sure you are using the development branch versions
of r4ss and
ss3sim (by installing
remotes::install_github("r4ss/r4ss@development") and
remotes::install_github("ss3sim/ss3sim@development"). These versions
should be installed automatically when SSMSE is downloaded.
# Summarize 1 iteration of output
summary <- SSMSE_summary_all(normalizePath(run_res_path))
## Extracting results from 2 scenarios
## Starting H-1 with 5 iterations
## Starting H-ctl with 5 iterationsPlotting and data manipulation can then be done with these summaries. For example, SSB over time by model can be plotted. The models include the Operating Model (cod_OM), Estimation model (EM) for the historical period of years 0-100 (cod_EM_init), the EM run with last year of data in year 103 (cod_EM_103), and the EM run with last year of data in 106 (cod_EM_106).
library(ggplot2) # use install.packages("ggplot2") to install package if needed
library(tidyr) # use install.packages("tidyr") to install package if needed
##
## Attaching package: 'tidyr'
## The following object is masked from 'package:testthat':
##
## matches
library(dplyr)
##
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'
##
## The following object is masked from 'package:testthat':
##
## matches
## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
##
## filter, lag
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
##
## intersect, setdiff, setequal, unionsummary$ts <- tidyr::separate(summary$ts,
col = model_run,
into = c(NA, "model_type"),
remove = FALSE,
sep = "_",
extra = "drop")
# check values for cod_OM
summary$scalar %>%
dplyr::filter(iteration == 1) %>%
dplyr::filter(scenario == "H-1") %>%
dplyr::select(iteration, scenario, SR_BH_steep, model_run)
## iteration scenario SR_BH_steep model_run
## 1 1 H-1 1.00 cod-1_OM
## 2 1 H-1 0.65 cod_EM_103
## 3 1 H-1 0.65 cod_EM_106
## 4 1 H-1 0.65 cod_EM_init
# plot SSB by year and model run - need to correct using code from the
# think tank
ggplot2::ggplot(data = subset(summary$ts, model_run %in% c("cod_OM", "cod-1_OM", "cod_EM_106")),
ggplot2::aes(x = year, y = SpawnBio)) +
ggplot2::geom_vline(xintercept = 100, color = "gray") +
ggplot2::geom_line(ggplot2::aes(linetype = as.character(iteration), color = model_type))+
ggplot2::scale_color_manual(values = c("#D65F00", "black")) +
ggplot2::scale_linetype_manual(values = rep("solid", 50)) +
ggplot2::guides(linetype = FALSE) +
ggplot2::facet_wrap(. ~ scenario) +
ggplot2::theme_classic()
If you wish to delete the files created from this example, you can use:
unlink(run_SSMSE_dir, recursive = TRUE)If you have thoughts about how to implement the upcoming work or are interested in helping develop SSMSE, please contact the developers by posting an issue in this repository or emailing nmfs.stock.synthesis@noaa.gov.
If you are interested in contributing, please read the NMFS Fisheries Toolbox R Contribution Guide. This project and everyone participating in it is governed by the NMFS Fisheries Toolbox Code of Conduct. By participating, you are expected to uphold this code. Please report unacceptable behavior to fisheries.toolbox@noaa.gov.
SSMSE is still a work in progress, with basic framework in development. Some new directions we hope to work on shortly:
- Expanding on examples to illustrate the package
- Improving usability of the wrapper functions that users access
- Adding more complex sampling options
- Adding functions to calculate performance metrics
- Adding functions to make some basic plots of diagonstics and results
If you have thoughts about how to implement the upcoming work or are interested in helping develop SSMSE, please contact the developers by posting an issue in this repository or emailing nmfs.stock.synthesis@noaa.gov