sde_fitting_example.jl

using DifferentialEquations
using Plots
using StatsPlots
using DifferentialEquations
using Turing

u0 = [1.0,1.0]
tspan = (0.0,10.0)
function multiplicative_noise!(du,u,p,t)
  x,y = u
  du[1] = p[5]*x
  du[2] = p[6]*y
end
p = [1.5,1.0,3.0,1.0,0.1,0.1]

function lotka_volterra!(du,u,p,t)
  α,β,γ,δ = p
  du[1] = dx = α*x - β*x*y
  du[2] = dy = δ*x*y - γ*y
end


prob_sde = SDEProblem(lotka_volterra!,multiplicative_noise!,u0,tspan,p)

ensembleprob = EnsembleProblem(prob_sde)
@time data = solve(ensembleprob,SOSRI(),saveat=0.1,trajectories=1000)
plot(EnsembleSummary(data))

Turing.setadbackend(:forwarddiff)
@model function fitlv(data, prob)
    σ ~ InverseGamma(2,3)
    α ~ truncated(Normal(1.3,0.5),0.5,2.5)
    β ~ truncated(Normal(1.2,0.25),0.5,2)
    γ ~ truncated(Normal(3.2,0.25),2.2,4.0)
    δ ~ truncated(Normal(1.2,0.25),0.5,2.0)
    ϕ1 ~ truncated(Normal(0.12,0.3),0.05,0.25)
    ϕ2 ~ truncated(Normal(0.12,0.3),0.05,0.25)
    p = [α,β,γ,δ,ϕ1,ϕ2]
    prob = remake(prob, p=p)
    predicted = solve(prob,SOSRI(),saveat=0.1)

    if predicted.retcode != :Success
        Turing.acclogp!(_varinfo, -Inf)
    end
    for j in 1:length(data)
        for i = 1:length(predicted)
            data[j][i] ~ MvNormal(predicted[i],σ)
        end
    end
end

model = fitlv(data, prob_sde)
chain = sample(model, NUTS(0.25), 5000, init_theta = [1.5,1.3,1.2,2.7,1.2,0.12,0.12])
plot(chain)