Expanding the scope to include public health policy / epidemiology

[rdvelazquez]

Should this review paper also explicitly address public health policy / epidemiology? Is there a critical mass of folks who can help manage contributions in this area?

Some specific subtopics that a section like this could address are listed in the comment below.

[rdvelazquez]

Potential topics could include (the papers are just from a brief google scholar search to get a rough idea of what research may be available):

• Contact tracing (traditional and digital)
  • Quantifying dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests that epidemic control and avoidance is feasible through instantaneous digital contact tracing (https://github.com/BDI-pathogens/covid-19_instant_tracing/blob/master/Manuscript%20-%20Modelling%20instantaneous%20digital%20contact%20tracing.pdf)
  • Sustainable containment of COVID-19 using smartphones in China: Scientific and ethical underpinnings for implementation of similar approaches in other settings (https://github.com/BDI-pathogens/covid-19_instant_tracing/blob/master/Policy%20forum%20-%20COVID-19%20containment%20by%20herd%20protection.pdf)
• Prioritizing testing resources
• Social distancing
  • Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
  • Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in confirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in Mainland China (https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.07572)
• Communication
• Prediction of spread at various geographic and time scales
  • Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data (https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.12298)
  • Artificial Intelligence Forecasting of Covid-19 in China (https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.07112)
  • Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases (https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523/htm)
• Role of symptomatic vs. asymptomatic individuals in spread
  • Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2762028)
• Role of different demographics in spread, particularly the young
• Persistence in the environment
  • Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents (https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext)
  • 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Review of the Current Literature and Built Environment (BE) Considerations to Reduce Transmission (https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0197/v2)
• Reconstruction of transmission networks (phylogenetic techniques, understanding the role of community spread vs. new introductions)
  • https://nextstrain.org/ncov

I don't personally have expertise in this area but I've seen it play a huge role in the response to COVID-19 and find it hard to understand what the research actually says about these topics. If there are others with expertise in this area who would like to contribute... here's your invitation.

[rando2]

Hi @rdvelazquez , Thank you for opening this issue for people to discuss ideas! I think some of your proposed topics might be related to an open issue and an open pull request we have right now, #20 and #22 . Feedback would be much appreciated!

[rdvelazquez]

Hi @rando2, Thanks for taking a look at this! I missed #20 and #22 when originally looking into this; they both look good! I think the diagnostics section is a good place to discuss practical considerations for testing. If a section eventually gets added regarding public health policy some of that information could be moved at that point if warranted.

[adamlmaclean]

I think a section on population dynamics could be valuable -- overlapping with several of the bullets mentioned by @rdvelazquez above: covers prediction of transmission dynamics (see #69), and potential guidelines/strategies for contact tracing, may also touch upon demographics (though with more complicated models).

[cgreene]

@nolankav - just saw your introduction over in #17 and I wonder if you want to join this conversation

[rdvelazquez]

FYI - I've narrowed the scope of this issue (changed the tile and intro comment) to help keep things organized. It's now specifically addressing expanding the scope for public health policy / epidemiology rather than any proposed expansion of scope.

[nolankav]

There's a potential angle on SES/income how it complicates social distancing (e.g. if you live paycheck-to-paycheck, you're less likely to distance). This could support targeted, cost-effective policies and economic interventions for reducing transmission.

Or are socioeconomic considerations beyond the scope of the paper?

Also worth discussing ethical issues regarding testing and policy interventions. Tracing movements is less socially acceptable in the West than in China, for example.

Can take a look at other angles, too.

[adamlmaclean]

Re: discussion of epidemiology & population dynamics - I'd be happy to draft a section on this. Several modeling works (including #69 and #109) provide useful estimates of R_0, R_t, and the effects of social distancing.

it seems that this can either belong to its own section of fit within Pathogenesis.md under the heading "Viral Replication, Spreading and Transmission" or elsewhere? Ok to start by drafting this within the Pathogenesis section, and move later if better?

[rando2]

Hi @alavendelm , that sounds great to me! Thank you so much for taking the lead on this! It shouldn't be too hard to move it later if we decide it fits better somewhere else.

[rdvelazquez]

Quick update on level of interest:

Four people have expressed interest or suggested related papers: @alavendelm, @nolankav, @rando2, @cbrueffer

Five paper's have been suggested / summarized:
#69 - Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling study
#103 - Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
#104 - Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
#109 - Potential roles of social distancing in mitigating the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Korea
#114 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Seems like the current approach is to include these areas in background or pathogenesis and then move to their own section later if needed, which makes sense to me.

I'll let the maintainers and contributors take it from here but I'm more than happy to help with organization / administrative things and will keep an eye on this issue in the next few weeks.

[adamlmaclean]

Thanks @rdvelazquez. I am working on a section on transmission for the background, covering #69, #103, and #109.

Here not covering #104 and #114 -- these probably fit best elsewhere.

[rdvelazquez]

Closing this now. There is a section on reproduction number and some of these other items were touched on in the intro.