20240501_20240815.jsonl

{"id": "d8268ab0-3a8c-4f96-a1ad-825f75c6a883", "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "body": "Resolves **Yes** if one of these individuals is the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024:\n\n - Donald Trump\n - Donald Trump Jr.\n - Eric Trump\n - Ivanka Trump\n - Tiffany Trump\n - Melania Trump\n - Barron Trump", "resolution_date": "2024-07-15 22:20:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2020-05-09 10:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/4127", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T22:20:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2020-04-13T23:08:12.361286Z", "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", "background_info": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\n\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "a68c19f5-d466-46db-bd23-12cd48a65fa0", "title": "Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question may consider new candidates added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2020-08-27 23:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5049", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2020-08-17T21:21:23.428397Z", "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "afe8ac81-d147-4230-9fc4-163defe794b8", "title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Tucker Carlson is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. Any other candidate being selected will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2020-08-23 22:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/5062", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2020-08-19T16:38:25.863856Z", "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a0a672cf-2805-410a-8503-0cc74aedd353", "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a referendum held in Scotland regarding Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom, and this referendum is held before May 3, 2024.  This referendum may be an \"advisory\" referendum; that is, it is not necessary for the referendum to have any legally binding effect.\n\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a \u201cwildcat\u201d or \u201cCatalan\u201d style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government", "resolution_date": "2024-05-03 23:36:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-02-18 08:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6369", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-05-03T23:36:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2021-01-22T22:31:10.675829Z", "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "background_info": "Scotland is one of the UK\u2019s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \n\nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The \u201cNo\u201d side (\u201cBetter Together\u201d) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\n\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "4c2e199f-12c0-43ba-8a46-dd546f2f0738", "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ron DeSantis is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election. It is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the Republican National Convention.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-03-22 23:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/6590", "market_prob": 0.003, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2021-02-14T23:43:58.719410Z", "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "92cefb00-250e-475f-bf74-3d22f2281397", "title": "Will Mike Pence be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Pence is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-05-03 07:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7083", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2021-04-21T15:45:17.175278Z", "publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "4197a027-705e-4dce-9130-be0e2bcbe59b", "title": "Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2024 Paris Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Paris Olympics do not take place before 2027. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking all the medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-08-17 22:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7664", "market_prob": 0.82, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2021-08-08T16:30:13.579172Z", "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "background_info": "The 2024 Olympic games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\n\nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent Olympics, topping the medal table in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2024?\n\n*Related questions*\n\n* [How many medals will Team USA win in Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)\n* [Will France come in the Top 5 at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "180286b5-0fd9-4cd6-8df9-c88f949908c4", "title": "Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question will resolve positively if France place in the top 5 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2024. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2024.\n\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n\n1. Number of Gold Medals\n2. (Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals\n3. (Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medal", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 16:05:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-08-17 22:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/7669", "market_prob": 0.5, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:05:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-25T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2021-08-09T16:31:20.826357Z", "publish_time": "2021-08-17T22:00:00Z", "background_info": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [How many medals will Team USA win at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/)\n* [Will the Team USA top the medal table at Paris 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7664/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-in-paris/)\n\n----\n\n[There is a phenomenon at the Olympics where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\n\nFrance is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. [Their last 6 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France_at_the_Olympics#Medals_by_Summer_Games):\n\n```\n2000: 6th \n2004: 7th \n2008: 10th \n2012: 7th \n2016: 7th\n2020: 8th\n```"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "5c7916fc-532c-4770-84d4-87b895d62d88", "title": "Will BJP form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the BJP has a member sworn in as the next Indian Prime Minister following the next general elections.  All other parties will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve for the next general election occurring after June 1, 2022 (currently expected for May 2024)", "resolution_date": "2024-06-09 09:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2022-06-12 22:06:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11309", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11309", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-06-09T09:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2022-06-09T22:08:08.094483Z", "publish_time": "2022-06-12T22:06:00Z", "background_info": "India has a [parliamentary government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_India) system, with 543 single-member constituencies which use first-past-the-post voting to elect MPs to the [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha), the lower house in Indian Parliament.  The [Prime Minister](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_India) is appointed by the President and a majority vote of the Lok Sabha; the Prime Minister then leads this governing coalition.  Elections must be held every 5 years, but elections may be called earlier if the President dissolves the Lok Sabha.\n\nThe Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has been in power at the Union government level since 2014, with [Narendra Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) as Prime Minister, with the Indian National Congress (INC) as the main challenger. The next national elections are scheduled for May 2024.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the party who has a member sworn in as the next Indian Prime Minister following the next general elections.  All other parties will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve for the next general election occuring after June 1, 2022 (currently expected for May 2024)"}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "7c9909dd-1c9e-44ec-8f24-2d1e0f01f7f9", "title": "Will INC form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the INC has a member sworn in as the next Indian Prime Minister following the next general elections. All other parties will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve for the next general election occurring after June 1, 2022 (currently expected for May 2024).", "resolution_date": "2024-06-09 09:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2022-06-12 22:06:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11310", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11310", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-09T09:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2022-06-09T22:08:08.094602Z", "publish_time": "2022-06-12T22:06:00Z", "background_info": "India has a [parliamentary government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_India) system, with 543 single-member constituencies which use first-past-the-post voting to elect MPs to the [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha), the lower house in Indian Parliament.  The [Prime Minister](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_India) is appointed by the President and a majority vote of the Lok Sabha; the Prime Minister then leads this governing coalition.  Elections must be held every 5 years, but elections may be called earlier if the President dissolves the Lok Sabha.\n\nThe Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has been in power at the Union government level since 2014, with [Narendra Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi) as Prime Minister, with the Indian National Congress (INC) as the main challenger. The next national elections are scheduled for May 2024.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the party who has a member sworn in as the next Indian Prime Minister following the next general elections.  All other parties will resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve for the next general election occuring after June 1, 2022 (currently expected for May 2024)"}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "59688203-500e-4e73-ad07-9b67ff6e380e", "title": "Will Nikki Haley be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nikki Haley is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-07-03 07:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11699", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11699", "market_prob": 0.005, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2022-07-04T17:03:01.857038Z", "publish_time": "2021-07-03T07:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "824e4a49-c5ee-4fc4-b738-e2fe6022a7eb", "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump Jr. is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently mentioned; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-07-03 07:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11700", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11700", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2022-07-04T17:06:32.458712Z", "publish_time": "2021-07-03T07:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "d486ada5-e744-4ea1-8f2a-5311b3fbe308", "title": "Will Ted Cruz be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ted Cruz is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2021-07-03 07:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11701", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/11701", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2022-07-04T17:06:32.458831Z", "publish_time": "2021-07-03T07:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "12db4c6c-aad4-4077-aaa9-f3ced70c6620", "title": "Will Chris Christie be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Chris Christie is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently mentioned; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the Republican National Convention.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2022-08-10 15:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12158", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12158", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2022-08-10T17:39:04.109239Z", "publish_time": "2022-08-10T15:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "fb2a3e79-2f2b-42e7-a17d-4c74a1d37fa1", "title": "Will Liz Cheney be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Liz Cheney is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2022-08-10 15:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12277", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/12277", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2022-08-18T16:58:36.776027Z", "publish_time": "2022-08-10T15:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "546d26b5-eafa-436a-8cd8-75375f2a0ada", "title": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Vivek Ramaswamy is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-02-22 16:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15255", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15255", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-02-22T23:40:52.928210Z", "publish_time": "2023-02-22T16:00:00Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "6194f870-99ab-4885-8386-260980882c5d", "title": "Will Asa Hutchinson be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Asa Hutchinson is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently considered; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-03 13:22:36", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15711", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15711", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-03T13:21:55.600315Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-03T13:22:36Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "06fb3583-b866-4e7a-907e-9ce035143882", "title": "Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russian athletes are barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics under either (i) the Russian flag, (ii) The Russian Olympic Committee's flag, or (iii) any other independent or neutral flag. This will resolve based on the official list of countries and athletes present at the [2024 Olympics](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/paris-2024) or based on credible media reports, indicating that the 2024 Olympics are underway or have concluded without Russian participation. For the question to resolve as **Yes**, no more than 34 Russians can be competing at the 2024 Olympics. 34 was chosen as 10% of [Russian athletes that participated in the 2020 Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Olympic_Committee_athletes_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics) to allow for a few individual or sport specific exceptions.\n\nIf more than 34 Russian athletes compete at the 2024 Olympics, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf the 2024 Olympics are cancelled or postponed to 2025 or afterwards, this question resolves as ambiguously.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-26 20:11:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-17 16:47:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15796", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15796", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-07-26T20:11:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-26T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-26T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-06T18:49:32.063178Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-17T16:47:00Z", "background_info": "After the [Russian's invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in February 2022, Russia has been subject to a large amount of international pressure. That pressure has taken many different forms;  [sanctions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10266/russia-sanctions-1-year-after-invasion/), [boycotts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_boycott_of_Russia_and_Belarus), protests, oil and gas embargoes, corporate divestment, and more. Many individuals, corporations, and countries have taking action to show international solidarity with Ukraine.\n\nIn the sporting world, Russia has been banned from a number of recent international events. On Feb 28th 2022, four days after Russia invaded, FIFA made an unprecedented decision to [ban Russian clubs and the national team from all competitions](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/worldcup/qatar2022/media-releases/fifa-uefa-suspend-russian-clubs-and-national-teams-from-all-competitions) including the World Cup.\n\n> Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine. Both Presidents [FIFA and UEFA] hope that the situation in Ukraine will improve significantly and rapidly so that football can again be a vector for unity and peace amongst people.\n\nIn 2023, the IOC (International Olympic Committee) has reiterated their position several times [[1]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries)[[2]](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/q-a-on-solidarity-with-ukraine-sanctions-against-russia-and-belarus-and-the-status-of-athletes-from-these-countries) that Russian and Belarusian athletes can only compete as Individual Neutral Athletes.\n\nDespite IOC recommendations Poland banned Russian and Belarusian athletes from [the 2023 European Games](https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/03/29/russians-and-belarusians-banned-from-european-games-in-poland-despite-ioc-recommendations/). In Paris, the 2024 Olympic host city,  event organizers [cancelled a World Cup fencing event](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-france-russia-ukraine-2821983e726628c8bbf21e1eb8dd8c76) after the FIE (International Fencing Federation) [decision](https://apnews.com/article/fencing-russia-ukraine-olympics-9754e17d554df4484c609248019bd1a9) to allow Russian athletes to resume competing one year after the invasion of Ukraine. \n\nLooking back at previous Olympics, Russia's Track and Field team was [barred from the 2016 Olympics](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/18/sports/olympics/russia-barred-rio-summer-olympics-doping.html) over a decade long doping scandal. 68 Athletes filled appeals that were ultimately [dismissed by the Court of Arbitration for Sport](https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/russians-lose-track-appeal-ioc-weigh-total-ban-rio), though [some](https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1133394/russia-ana-athletics) Russian athletes were able to compete as 'Authorized Neutral Athletes'. At the 2016 Paralympics the entire Russian Paralympic team was banned over the same doping scandal."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "2bee3518-c532-4e1d-824d-a4c6b3e748d2", "title": "Will Tim Scott be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Tim Scott is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-14 13:22:36", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15922", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15922", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-14T14:07:19.745252Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-14T13:22:36Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "102cb287-14cd-444d-ba8a-cb3af395810d", "title": "Will S&D hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the S&D holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 08:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-20 11:00:18", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15933", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15933", "market_prob": 0.08, "resolve_time": "2024-06-11T08:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-14T15:17:35.013780Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-20T11:00:18.816000Z", "background_info": "The [European Parliament](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/european_government/eu_institutions/european_parliament.html#:~:text=The%20European%20Parliament%20is%20part,member%20states%20every%205%20years.) is a key legislative body within the European Union (EU) that shares lawmaking responsibilities with the Council of the European Union. Comprising [705](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/11/how-many-meps) directly elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from EU member states, the Parliament holds elections every five years. While it cannot initiate legislation, the European Parliament can approve, reject, or amend proposed laws, and it also supervises EU institutions and budgets.\n\nDuring [European parliamentary elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/elections), candidates run as representatives of their national parties, which are typically affiliated with political groups in the European Parliament. Once elected, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) officially join political groups based on shared ideologies and policy objectives that align with their national parties. According to the [EU Parliament website](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups), the following political groups are currently present in the European parliament:\n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation |\n|------------|--------------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR |\n| The Left group in the European Parliament  | GUE/NGL |\n\nIn the [2019 elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/en), the seats were allocated as follows between the political groups: \n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation | Seats |\n|------------|--------------|-------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP | 182 |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D | 154 |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE | 108 |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA | 74 |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID | 73 |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR | 62 |\n| Non-Inscrits | NI | 57 |\n| Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left | GUE/NGL | 41 |\n| **Total Seats** | | **751** |\n\n\nThe next European parliamentary elections are [scheduled for 2024](https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/package/european-elections-2024_23001), with [polling](https://europeelects.eu/ep2024/) indicating a narrow lead for the EPP in early 2023.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the political group that holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "1219cb67-90d4-4db1-9f44-e8df889460b4", "title": "Will Renew hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Renew holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other outcomes. If two groups are tied for seats, this resolution will consider the outcome based on official statements by the European Parliament or credible media reports.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 08:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-20 11:00:18", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15934", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15934", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-11T08:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-14T15:17:35.013873Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-20T11:00:18.816000Z", "background_info": "The [European Parliament](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/european_government/eu_institutions/european_parliament.html#:~:text=The%20European%20Parliament%20is%20part,member%20states%20every%205%20years.) is a key legislative body within the European Union (EU) that shares lawmaking responsibilities with the Council of the European Union. Comprising [705](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/11/how-many-meps) directly elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from EU member states, the Parliament holds elections every five years. While it cannot initiate legislation, the European Parliament can approve, reject, or amend proposed laws, and it also supervises EU institutions and budgets.\n\nDuring [European parliamentary elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/elections), candidates run as representatives of their national parties, which are typically affiliated with political groups in the European Parliament. Once elected, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) officially join political groups based on shared ideologies and policy objectives that align with their national parties. According to the [EU Parliament website](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups), the following political groups are currently present in the European parliament:\n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation |\n|------------|--------------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR |\n| The Left group in the European Parliament  | GUE/NGL |\n\nIn the [2019 elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/en), the seats were allocated as follows between the political groups: \n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation | Seats |\n|------------|--------------|-------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP | 182 |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D | 154 |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE | 108 |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA | 74 |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID | 73 |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR | 62 |\n| Non-Inscrits | NI | 57 |\n| Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left | GUE/NGL | 41 |\n| **Total Seats** | | **751** |\n\n\nThe next European parliamentary elections are [scheduled for 2024](https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/package/european-elections-2024_23001), with [polling](https://europeelects.eu/ep2024/) indicating a narrow lead for the EPP in early 2023.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the political group that holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "79d19752-88c0-4c28-9f81-f78fd421a6db", "title": "Will Greens\u2013EFA hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Greens\u2013EFA political group holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other outcomes. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 08:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-20 11:00:18", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15935", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15935", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-11T08:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-14T15:17:35.013964Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-20T11:00:18.816000Z", "background_info": "The [European Parliament](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/european_government/eu_institutions/european_parliament.html#:~:text=The%20European%20Parliament%20is%20part,member%20states%20every%205%20years.) is a key legislative body within the European Union (EU) that shares lawmaking responsibilities with the Council of the European Union. Comprising [705](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/11/how-many-meps) directly elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from EU member states, the Parliament holds elections every five years. While it cannot initiate legislation, the European Parliament can approve, reject, or amend proposed laws, and it also supervises EU institutions and budgets.\n\nDuring [European parliamentary elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/elections), candidates run as representatives of their national parties, which are typically affiliated with political groups in the European Parliament. Once elected, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) officially join political groups based on shared ideologies and policy objectives that align with their national parties. According to the [EU Parliament website](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups), the following political groups are currently present in the European parliament:\n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation |\n|------------|--------------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR |\n| The Left group in the European Parliament  | GUE/NGL |\n\nIn the [2019 elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/en), the seats were allocated as follows between the political groups: \n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation | Seats |\n|------------|--------------|-------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP | 182 |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D | 154 |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE | 108 |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA | 74 |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID | 73 |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR | 62 |\n| Non-Inscrits | NI | 57 |\n| Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left | GUE/NGL | 41 |\n| **Total Seats** | | **751** |\n\n\nThe next European parliamentary elections are [scheduled for 2024](https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/package/european-elections-2024_23001), with [polling](https://europeelects.eu/ep2024/) indicating a narrow lead for the EPP in early 2023.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens\u2013EFA)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the political group that holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2de8e84c-3a9a-4e8b-97db-75155f8f54a1", "title": "Will ECR hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if ECR holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other outcomes. If two groups are tied for seats, both will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 08:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-20 11:00:18", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15936", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15936", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-11T08:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-14T15:17:35.014054Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-20T11:00:18.816000Z", "background_info": "The [European Parliament](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/european_government/eu_institutions/european_parliament.html#:~:text=The%20European%20Parliament%20is%20part,member%20states%20every%205%20years.) is a key legislative body within the European Union (EU) that shares lawmaking responsibilities with the Council of the European Union. Comprising [705](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/11/how-many-meps) directly elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from EU member states, the Parliament holds elections every five years. While it cannot initiate legislation, the European Parliament can approve, reject, or amend proposed laws, and it also supervises EU institutions and budgets.\n\nDuring [European parliamentary elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/elections), candidates run as representatives of their national parties, which are typically affiliated with political groups in the European Parliament. Once elected, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) officially join political groups based on shared ideologies and policy objectives that align with their national parties. According to the [EU Parliament website](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups), the following political groups are currently present in the European parliament:\n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation |\n|------------|--------------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR |\n| The Left group in the European Parliament  | GUE/NGL |\n\nIn the [2019 elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/en), the seats were allocated as follows between the political groups: \n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation | Seats |\n|------------|--------------|-------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP | 182 |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D | 154 |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE | 108 |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA | 74 |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID | 73 |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR | 62 |\n| Non-Inscrits | NI | 57 |\n| Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left | GUE/NGL | 41 |\n| **Total Seats** | | **751** |\n\n\nThe next European parliamentary elections are [scheduled for 2024](https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/package/european-elections-2024_23001), with [polling](https://europeelects.eu/ep2024/) indicating a narrow lead for the EPP in early 2023.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the political group that holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "dfc1112c-be00-4269-8257-73f9d98c4db8", "title": "Will the ID political group hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the ID political group holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections. It will resolve as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 08:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-20 11:00:18", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15937", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15937", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-11T08:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-14T15:17:35.014140Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-20T11:00:18.816000Z", "background_info": "The [European Parliament](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/european_government/eu_institutions/european_parliament.html#:~:text=The%20European%20Parliament%20is%20part,member%20states%20every%205%20years.) is a key legislative body within the European Union (EU) that shares lawmaking responsibilities with the Council of the European Union. Comprising [705](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/11/how-many-meps) directly elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from EU member states, the Parliament holds elections every five years. While it cannot initiate legislation, the European Parliament can approve, reject, or amend proposed laws, and it also supervises EU institutions and budgets.\n\nDuring [European parliamentary elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/elections), candidates run as representatives of their national parties, which are typically affiliated with political groups in the European Parliament. Once elected, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) officially join political groups based on shared ideologies and policy objectives that align with their national parties. According to the [EU Parliament website](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups), the following political groups are currently present in the European parliament:\n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation |\n|------------|--------------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR |\n| The Left group in the European Parliament  | GUE/NGL |\n\nIn the [2019 elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/en), the seats were allocated as follows between the political groups: \n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation | Seats |\n|------------|--------------|-------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP | 182 |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D | 154 |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE | 108 |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA | 74 |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID | 73 |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR | 62 |\n| Non-Inscrits | NI | 57 |\n| Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left | GUE/NGL | 41 |\n| **Total Seats** | | **751** |\n\n\nThe next European parliamentary elections are [scheduled for 2024](https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/package/european-elections-2024_23001), with [polling](https://europeelects.eu/ep2024/) indicating a narrow lead for the EPP in early 2023.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the political group that holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a63b834f-3d53-4876-a6d8-b7713bb97788", "title": "Will GUE/NGL hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if GUE/NGL holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 08:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-20 11:00:18", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15938", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/15938", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-11T08:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-04-14T15:17:35.014228Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-20T11:00:18.816000Z", "background_info": "The [European Parliament](https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/european_government/eu_institutions/european_parliament.html#:~:text=The%20European%20Parliament%20is%20part,member%20states%20every%205%20years.) is a key legislative body within the European Union (EU) that shares lawmaking responsibilities with the Council of the European Union. Comprising [705](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/11/how-many-meps) directly elected Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from EU member states, the Parliament holds elections every five years. While it cannot initiate legislation, the European Parliament can approve, reject, or amend proposed laws, and it also supervises EU institutions and budgets.\n\nDuring [European parliamentary elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/elections), candidates run as representatives of their national parties, which are typically affiliated with political groups in the European Parliament. Once elected, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) officially join political groups based on shared ideologies and policy objectives that align with their national parties. According to the [EU Parliament website](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/about-parliament/en/organisation-and-rules/organisation/political-groups), the following political groups are currently present in the European parliament:\n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation |\n|------------|--------------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR |\n| The Left group in the European Parliament  | GUE/NGL |\n\nIn the [2019 elections](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/en), the seats were allocated as follows between the political groups: \n\n| Group Name | Abbreviation | Seats |\n|------------|--------------|-------|\n| Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) | EPP | 182 |\n| Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament | S&D | 154 |\n| Renew Europe Group | RE | 108 |\n| Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance | Greens/EFA | 74 |\n| Identity and Democracy Group | ID | 73 |\n| European Conservatives and Reformists Group | ECR | 62 |\n| Non-Inscrits | NI | 57 |\n| Confederal Group of the European United Left - Nordic Green Left | GUE/NGL | 41 |\n| **Total Seats** | | **751** |\n\n\nThe next European parliamentary elections are [scheduled for 2024](https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/package/european-elections-2024_23001), with [polling](https://europeelects.eu/ep2024/) indicating a narrow lead for the EPP in early 2023.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the political group that holds the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections and as **No** for all other political groups. If two groups are tied for seats, both sub-questions will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of [official statements by the European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/portal/en) or credible media reports."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "cfc3d363-6fdc-4f74-aee2-c00616548287", "title": "Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Linda Yaccarino is in the position of CEO at Twitter on July 1, 2024, according to official announcements from Twitter or credible media sources.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-02 11:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-05-27 02:28:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17250", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17250", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-07-02T11:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-05-23T16:17:33.781909Z", "publish_time": "2023-05-27T02:28:00Z", "background_info": "Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been [appointed as the CEO of Twitter](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/tech/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino/index.html) by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to [assume the role in late June, 2023](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048). The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus on Twitter's advertising business and his plans to revamp the social network into  [X, the \u201ceverything app\u201d](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/11/elon-musk-twitter-new-ceo).  Yaccarino has a strong background in the advertising industry and is known for her influential role in Madison Avenue.\n\nAssuming the role of Twitter CEO, Yaccarino will face various challenges, including Twitter's struggles to expand its advertising business, gaps in expertise and technical glitches, and the company's substantial debt. Additionally, she will have to navigate the unpredictable nature of working with Musk."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "6518129b-e4b6-4971-826e-2ad1514df058", "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?", "body": "The question resolves as **YES** if [ChatGPT](chat.openai.com) is generally available in the EU on June 30, 2024, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"Generally available\" here means that the default state for people in the EU is that they can access it without a VPN (possibly requiring paying for it.) If unavailable in certain EU countries (as was the case in Italy in early 2023), or unavailable to (for example) minors, this will still resolve positively, assuming at least >50% of the population can use it.\n\n\"ChatGPT\" here refers to the general web interface (not the API) for interacting with GPT models. Still resolves positively if the name or website has changed, as long as OpenAI's service is substantially the same (entering queries to systems based on Large Language Models).", "resolution_date": "2024-07-12 12:12:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-05-26 15:07:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17260", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17260", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-05-25T04:03:05.833158Z", "publish_time": "2023-05-26T15:07:00Z", "background_info": "From [Reuters on May 24, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-may-leave-eu-if-regulations-bite-ceo-2023-05-24), \"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union.\"\n\nThe [EU AI Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) \"regulates the providers of artificial intelligence systems, and entities making use of them in a professional capacity.\" As of May 24, 2024, [Metaculus expects](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/) the AI Act to be passed between Oct 2023 and Nov 2024, with a median of April 2024, though OpenAI could choose to cease offering ChatGPT in Europe earlier than that, or for some other reason entirely."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "555fa576-c4e5-4eb0-adbb-1e34c7482780", "title": "Will Larry Elder be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Larry Elder is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-14 13:22:36", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17335", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17335", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-06-04T23:09:33.133453Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-14T13:22:36Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "46c1853d-8fae-43e8-8a1a-5c29ceee21ff", "title": "Will Doug Burgum be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Doug Burgum is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-04-14 13:22:36", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17354", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17354", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-06-04T23:15:50.779433Z", "publish_time": "2023-04-14T13:22:36Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "989fa3ab-73c4-4bf9-957f-1fbac543d20c", "title": "Will Francis Suarez be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Francis Suarez is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently mentioned; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-06-15 13:22:36", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17483", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17483", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-06-15T14:23:01.468630Z", "publish_time": "2023-06-15T13:22:36Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "0db172cc-e5c0-4457-8a52-035eded8e8ec", "title": "Will Will Hurd be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Will Hurd is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-06-22 13:22:36", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17561", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/17561", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-06-22T23:59:20.359946Z", "publish_time": "2023-06-22T13:22:36Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "ac78b4da-9724-4553-8f1f-1f4f1ec4cdb3", "title": "Will Anthropic publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, Anthropic publishes a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-02 05:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-07-24 22:53:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18009", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18009", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-07-02T05:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-07-22T16:24:09.595544Z", "publish_time": "2023-07-24T22:53:00Z", "background_info": "On July 21, 2023, the White House announced ([fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/), [full report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ensuring-Safe-Secure-and-Trustworthy-AI.pdf)) that Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI have voluntarily committed to manage AI risks.\n\nThe voluntary commitments are in three categories (a) \"Ensuring Products are Safe Before Introducing Them to the Public\", (b) \"Building Systems that Put Security First\", and (c) \"Earning the Public\u2019s Trust\", and are \"designed to advance a generative AI legal and policy regime\".\n\nFrom [Microsoft](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai/concepts/red-teaming), \"historically described systematic adversarial attacks for testing security vulnerabilities. With the rise of LLMs, the term has extended beyond traditional cybersecurity and evolved in common usage to describe many kinds of probing, testing, and attacking of AI systems.\" Note that this question only asks about _safety_, not _security_. [Google](https://bughunters.google.com/about/rules/6625378258649088/google-and-alphabet-vulnerability-reward-program-vrp-rules) and [OpenAI](https://bugcrowd.com/openai) already have bug bounties for security.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic)", "original_body": "For each AI lab, this question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, they publish a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "b418b999-b795-479b-9ffc-41ef8decd8f5", "title": "Will Google DeepMind publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?", "body": "For Google DeepMind, this question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, they publish a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-02 05:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-07-24 22:53:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18010", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18010", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-07-02T05:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-07-22T16:24:09.595666Z", "publish_time": "2023-07-24T22:53:00Z", "background_info": "On July 21, 2023, the White House announced ([fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/), [full report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ensuring-Safe-Secure-and-Trustworthy-AI.pdf)) that Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI have voluntarily committed to manage AI risks.\n\nThe voluntary commitments are in three categories (a) \"Ensuring Products are Safe Before Introducing Them to the Public\", (b) \"Building Systems that Put Security First\", and (c) \"Earning the Public\u2019s Trust\", and are \"designed to advance a generative AI legal and policy regime\".\n\nFrom [Microsoft](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai/concepts/red-teaming), \"historically described systematic adversarial attacks for testing security vulnerabilities. With the rise of LLMs, the term has extended beyond traditional cybersecurity and evolved in common usage to describe many kinds of probing, testing, and attacking of AI systems.\" Note that this question only asks about _safety_, not _security_. [Google](https://bughunters.google.com/about/rules/6625378258649088/google-and-alphabet-vulnerability-reward-program-vrp-rules) and [OpenAI](https://bugcrowd.com/openai) already have bug bounties for security.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind)", "original_body": "For each AI lab, this question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, they publish a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "79b7af3b-ae45-4de1-a61c-75cb052b84c8", "title": "Will Inflection publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?", "body": "For Inflection, this question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, they publish a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-02 05:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-07-24 22:53:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18011", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18011", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-07-02T05:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-07-22T16:24:09.595756Z", "publish_time": "2023-07-24T22:53:00Z", "background_info": "On July 21, 2023, the White House announced ([fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/), [full report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ensuring-Safe-Secure-and-Trustworthy-AI.pdf)) that Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI have voluntarily committed to manage AI risks.\n\nThe voluntary commitments are in three categories (a) \"Ensuring Products are Safe Before Introducing Them to the Public\", (b) \"Building Systems that Put Security First\", and (c) \"Earning the Public\u2019s Trust\", and are \"designed to advance a generative AI legal and policy regime\".\n\nFrom [Microsoft](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai/concepts/red-teaming), \"historically described systematic adversarial attacks for testing security vulnerabilities. With the rise of LLMs, the term has extended beyond traditional cybersecurity and evolved in common usage to describe many kinds of probing, testing, and attacking of AI systems.\" Note that this question only asks about _safety_, not _security_. [Google](https://bughunters.google.com/about/rules/6625378258649088/google-and-alphabet-vulnerability-reward-program-vrp-rules) and [OpenAI](https://bugcrowd.com/openai) already have bug bounties for security.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection)", "original_body": "For each AI lab, this question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, they publish a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "9d7cdbe3-1efa-4ab9-b39f-400908617520", "title": "Will Meta publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, Meta publishes a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-02 05:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-07-24 22:53:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18012", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18012", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-07-02T05:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-07-22T16:24:09.595844Z", "publish_time": "2023-07-24T22:53:00Z", "background_info": "On July 21, 2023, the White House announced ([fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/), [full report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ensuring-Safe-Secure-and-Trustworthy-AI.pdf)) that Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI have voluntarily committed to manage AI risks.\n\nThe voluntary commitments are in three categories (a) \"Ensuring Products are Safe Before Introducing Them to the Public\", (b) \"Building Systems that Put Security First\", and (c) \"Earning the Public\u2019s Trust\", and are \"designed to advance a generative AI legal and policy regime\".\n\nFrom [Microsoft](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai/concepts/red-teaming), \"historically described systematic adversarial attacks for testing security vulnerabilities. With the rise of LLMs, the term has extended beyond traditional cybersecurity and evolved in common usage to describe many kinds of probing, testing, and attacking of AI systems.\" Note that this question only asks about _safety_, not _security_. [Google](https://bughunters.google.com/about/rules/6625378258649088/google-and-alphabet-vulnerability-reward-program-vrp-rules) and [OpenAI](https://bugcrowd.com/openai) already have bug bounties for security.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta)", "original_body": "For each AI lab, this question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, they publish a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "d627049b-3b45-4cff-b3e9-ce672517c8f4", "title": "Will OpenAI publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, OpenAI publishes a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-02 05:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-07-24 22:53:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18013", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18013", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-07-02T05:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-07-22T16:24:09.595930Z", "publish_time": "2023-07-24T22:53:00Z", "background_info": "On July 21, 2023, the White House announced ([fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/), [full report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Ensuring-Safe-Secure-and-Trustworthy-AI.pdf)) that Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI have voluntarily committed to manage AI risks.\n\nThe voluntary commitments are in three categories (a) \"Ensuring Products are Safe Before Introducing Them to the Public\", (b) \"Building Systems that Put Security First\", and (c) \"Earning the Public\u2019s Trust\", and are \"designed to advance a generative AI legal and policy regime\".\n\nFrom [Microsoft](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/ai-services/openai/concepts/red-teaming), \"historically described systematic adversarial attacks for testing security vulnerabilities. With the rise of LLMs, the term has extended beyond traditional cybersecurity and evolved in common usage to describe many kinds of probing, testing, and attacking of AI systems.\" Note that this question only asks about _safety_, not _security_. [Google](https://bughunters.google.com/about/rules/6625378258649088/google-and-alphabet-vulnerability-reward-program-vrp-rules) and [OpenAI](https://bugcrowd.com/openai) already have bug bounties for security.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI)", "original_body": "For each AI lab, this question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2024, they publish a *public* report with the results from an *external* party red-teaming the safety of one of their AI models."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2da2efb1-297e-452c-8b7d-96817bbe73ad", "title": "Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?", "body": "The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is charged or indicted for any statements related to potential witnesses in *[The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia)*. The indictments must occur before June 1, 2024.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-01 15:47:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-08-18 02:04:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18390", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18390", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-08-15T23:13:21.999852Z", "publish_time": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "background_info": "On August 14, 2023, former President Donald Trump was [indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia#Indictment) by a grand jury in Georgia, alongside 18 other individuals. The state brought charges against Trump related to Trump's alleged participation in an attempt to overturn the state's 2020 presidential election results.\n\nTrump made statements on his social media platform, Truth Social, which [appeared to warn](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/14/trump-witness-tampering-georgia-indictment) potential witnesses not to testify against him.\n\n> Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Monday saying Georgia\u2019s former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan \u201cshouldn\u2019t\u201d testify in grand jury proceedings this week regarding allegations that Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election results in the state\u2014and some legal analysts are saying the post could be witness intimidation or tampering.\n\n> ...\n\n> Per Georgia law, anyone who attempts to [influence](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2020/title-16/chapter-10/article-5/section-16-10-93/) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, can face one to five years in prison; anyone who [threatens](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-10/article-2/section-16-10-32/#:~:text=Attempted%20Murder%20or%20Threatening%20of%20Witnesses%20in%20Official%20Proceedings,-Universal%20Citation%3A%20GA&text=shall%20be%20guilty%20of%20a,nor%20more%20than%2020%20years.) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, faces 10 to 20 years in prison. ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/08/14/trump-suggested-a-witness-shouldnt-testify-in-georgias-grand-jury-proceedings-critics-say-thats-witness-intimidation/?sh=7e14b52a57be))"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "1b1bf29c-4c4e-4bfb-b3e1-0f3cdbe7d10a", "title": "Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season?", "body": "The question resolves **Yes** if Erling Haaland is the player with the largest number of goals after each of the 20 PL teams plays their 38th game of the 2023/24 season, [according to Oracle Cloud via the PL website](https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/goals?se=578)", "resolution_date": "2024-05-20 01:30:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-09-26 22:20:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18695", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18695", "market_prob": 0.999, "resolve_time": "2024-05-20T01:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-19T17:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-19T17:59:00Z", "created_time": "2023-09-07T19:24:53.716372Z", "publish_time": "2023-09-26T22:20:00Z", "background_info": "Erling Haaland plays for Manchester City, a football team which competes in a number of competitions, including the Premier League."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "d99a1f97-5645-47d1-b910-ff1afb9d1304", "title": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "body": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, *on* July 15, 2024:\n\nDonald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\n\nThe removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if these conditions are not met as of July 15, 2024.\n\nNote: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur *after* the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's primary election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of July 15, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a ballot and then reinstated, such that as of July 15th he is not removed or blocked from any ballot, the question resolves negatively.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-16 01:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-09-12 21:24:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18716", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/18716", "market_prob": 0.009, "resolve_time": "2024-07-16T01:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-14T17:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-14T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-09-11T18:51:30.727821Z", "publish_time": "2023-09-12T21:24:00Z", "background_info": "*This question is modeled on [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18606/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-the-ballot/), but asks instead about the possibility of Trump's removal from primary election ballots.*\n\nThe 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the \"Disqualification Clause\" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.\" Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.\n\nIn New Hampshire, Bryant \"Corky\" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has [expressed intentions to file a legal challenge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/08/29/trump-14th-amendment-new-hampshire-gop-feuds-as-states-grapple-with-disqualifying-trump-from-ballot/?sh=70038b512e9a) questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan\u2019s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.\n\nThis question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the primary election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by July 15th, 2024, the planned start of the 2024 Republican National Convention."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "26492d98-5b15-4347-8e0a-550f0631061a", "title": "Will Glenn Youngkin be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Glenn Youngkin is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election. All other candidates will resolve as **No**. This question is not restricted to the candidates currently listed; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who receives the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election; it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-06-28 13:22:36", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19103", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19103", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-15T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-09-28T19:24:24.955471Z", "publish_time": "2023-06-28T13:22:36Z", "background_info": "Following the 2020 US election, Former President Donald Trump has hinted his intentions of running again for President in 2024, [saying at a rally in March 2022](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3), \"[...] in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House [...] I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before\".  [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) for the Republican Party nomination frequently shows Trump as the top choice among respondents.  \n\nFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis has not publicly expressed his intention of running (as of [June 2022](https://floridapolitics.com/archives/531919-ron-desantis-swats-away-2024-speculation-yet-again/)), though Fox News producers have [called him](https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/08/13/inside-fox-news-desantis-is-the-future-of-the-party-and-hes-taking-advantage/) \"the future of the Republican Party\".  DeSantis is a frequent [second-place favorite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Republican_Party_2) in polling behind Trump.\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence has also hinted his intentions of seeking the nomination; [in April 2022](https://archive.ph/uFSD4), when asked if he would run even if Donald Trump were also running, he responded \"We\u2019ll go where we\u2019re called\".", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** for the candidate below who is selected by the Republican National Convention as the nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election.  All other candidates will resolve as **No**.  This question is not restricted to the candidates currently below; other options may be added in the future.\n\nFor this question, it is not relevant who recieves the Republican nomination on the day of the 2024 US election, it is solely determined by who is selected by the delegates of the [Republican National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_National_Convention)."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "85730eb5-9967-4f2f-88e8-69cc16d80d8b", "title": "Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the Milwaukee Bucks are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves as **No** for all other teams and if the Bucks are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-31 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19410", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19410", "market_prob": 0.021, "resolve_time": "2024-05-03T01:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-31T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-03T01:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.580963Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2bd108b2-eadc-4b34-995d-5d9c8b664fa0", "title": "Will the Boston Celtics win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Boston Celtics are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves as **No** for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19411", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19411", "market_prob": 0.9, "resolve_time": "2024-06-18T03:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-18T03:30:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.581097Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "98c601a4-fae8-4da9-a130-15d1230a0305", "title": "Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Philadelphia 76ers are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves **No** for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19412", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19412", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-05-03T03:42:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-03T03:42:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.581188Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "d0ed8010-f500-4b8e-ab06-2bb297767f5c", "title": "Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the Cleveland Cavaliers are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). It resolves as **No** for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19413", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19413", "market_prob": 0.008, "resolve_time": "2024-05-16T01:20:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-16T01:20:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.581275Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "dee0bf93-a05d-48a7-b8e5-10ddea336bcf", "title": "Will the New York Knicks win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Knicks are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). It resolves as **No** for all other teams if they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19414", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19414", "market_prob": 0.033, "resolve_time": "2024-05-19T22:05:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:05:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.581363Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "c508f07d-a634-4579-bc33-4aa56b51ac67", "title": "Will the Miami Heat win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Miami Heat is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/).\n\nIt resolves **No** if any other team is crowned champion or if the Miami Heat is eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19416", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19416", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T01:50:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-02T01:50:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.581531Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2192093d-e90e-4288-9703-c95ffb19779a", "title": "Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the Indiana Pacers are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves as **No** for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19420", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19420", "market_prob": 0.002, "resolve_time": "2024-05-28T02:43:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-28T02:43:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.581861Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "00ec9c85-aa90-491e-8852-30f3499d4ddd", "title": "Will the Orlando Magic win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Orlando Magic are crowned the champions of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). It resolves as **No** for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19422", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19422", "market_prob": 0.004, "resolve_time": "2024-05-05T19:49:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T19:49:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.582024Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "22c1e1ba-670d-46e5-baf7-d78c408e2652", "title": "Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Denver Nuggets are crowned the champions of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). It resolves as **No** for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19425", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19425", "market_prob": 0.3, "resolve_time": "2024-05-20T02:32:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-20T02:32:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.582280Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "55b40d7f-4b2b-4dad-99eb-a211be0297ee", "title": "Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves as Yes if the Los Angeles Clippers are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). It resolves as No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19429", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19429", "market_prob": 0.015, "resolve_time": "2024-05-04T04:24:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-04T04:24:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.582602Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "001d182e-094a-4ae5-b1bf-60cdf7096965", "title": "Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves Yes if the Minnesota Timberwolves are crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No if any other team wins or if the Timberwolves are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19432", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19432", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T02:59:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-31T02:59:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.582844Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "530d4ba3-0c9e-4dcb-9b71-09f29ff35252", "title": "Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Oklahoma City Thunder is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). It resolves as **No** for all other outcomes as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19434", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19434", "market_prob": 0.04, "resolve_time": "2024-05-19T02:41:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-19T02:41:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.583007Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "8feff26a-06dc-4f36-892a-aff000d68b3d", "title": "Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals?", "body": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the Dallas Mavericks are crowned the champions of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/).\n\nIt resolves as **No** for all other outcomes as they are eliminated from contention.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-10-25 17:29:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19435", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19435", "market_prob": 0.1, "resolve_time": "2024-06-18T03:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-18T03:30:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-15T16:58:17.583088Z", "publish_time": "2023-10-25T17:29:00Z", "background_info": "[The Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns have the best odds as of the preseason.](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/finals-odds-championship-nba-betting-bm05/) There is a steep drop-off after that, though the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers also have decent odds and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks)", "original_body": "The question resolves Yes for the team that is crowned the champion of the 2024 NBA Finals, according to [the NBA](https://www.nba.com/). \n\nIt resolves No for all other teams as they are eliminated from contention."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "bc5697cd-0fc7-472d-b1ba-c81b4f64c056", "title": "Will Real Madrid win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "body": "The question resolves \"Yes\" if Real Madrid wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams resolve \"No\".", "resolution_date": "2024-06-02 23:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-11-01 21:43:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19601", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19601", "market_prob": 0.65, "resolve_time": "2024-06-02T23:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-26T18:29:57.950768Z", "publish_time": "2023-11-01T21:43:00Z", "background_info": "[The UEFA Champions League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League) (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid)", "original_body": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams resolve \"No\"."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "da594372-b28c-481c-8163-4a1353ed5713", "title": "Will Bayern Munich win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "body": "The question resolves \"Yes\" if Bayern Munich wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams resolve \"No\".", "resolution_date": "2024-06-01 19:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-11-01 21:43:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19607", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19607", "market_prob": 0.2, "resolve_time": "2024-05-08T22:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-08T22:30:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-26T18:29:57.951273Z", "publish_time": "2023-11-01T21:43:00Z", "background_info": "[The UEFA Champions League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League) (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich)", "original_body": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams resolve \"No\"."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "646a1366-364a-4eda-836b-f3098819578c", "title": "Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "body": "The question resolves **Yes** if Borussia Dortmund wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-01 20:57:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-11-01 21:43:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19608", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19608", "market_prob": 0.259, "resolve_time": "2024-06-01T20:57:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-26T18:29:57.951356Z", "publish_time": "2023-11-01T21:43:00Z", "background_info": "[The UEFA Champions League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League) (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund)", "original_body": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams resolve \"No\"."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "07582c55-1ca7-419f-aa3b-698765f313ef", "title": "Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League?", "body": "The question resolves \"Yes\" if Paris Saint-Germain wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other outcomes resolve \"No\".", "resolution_date": "2024-06-01 19:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-11-01 21:43:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19611", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/19611", "market_prob": 0.13, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-07T22:30:00Z", "created_time": "2023-10-26T18:29:57.951602Z", "publish_time": "2023-11-01T21:43:00Z", "background_info": "[The UEFA Champions League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League) (previously known as the European Cup, abbreviated as UCL, or sometimes, UEFA CL) is an annual club association football competition organised by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) and contested by top-division European clubs, deciding the competition winners through a round robin group stage to qualify for a double-legged knockout format, and a single leg final. The 2023/24 edition features 32 teams, with the final being played on the 1st of June 2024 at Wembley Stadium.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain)", "original_body": "The question resolves \"Yes\" for the team that wins the Final on the 1st of June 2024, according to [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). All other teams resolve \"No\"."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "f1df18e9-eeff-4aff-ab08-44e5c7bffe77", "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The four weeks will be based on the week end dates. The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-12 17:05:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2023-12-01 22:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20334", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/20334", "market_prob": 0.997, "resolve_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2023-12-01T21:14:39.542866Z", "publish_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "background_info": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "c552bbea-bf93-4bed-be7b-4797c55bf7be", "title": "Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?", "body": "The question resolves Yes if Tyson Fury wins the boxing bout against Oleksandr Usyk. It will resolve No if Usyk wins or there is a draw. If there is no fight between the two boxers before May 19th, 2024, the question is annulled.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-18 23:40:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-02-26 02:56:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21256", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/21256", "market_prob": 0.45, "resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-01-28T09:55:57.874336Z", "publish_time": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "background_info": "The heavyweight matchup is scheduled to take place on 18 May 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers. \n\nAccording to Wikipedia: \n\n>[Tyson Luke Fury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Fury), \"Gypsy King\" (born 12 August 1988) is a British professional boxer. He has held the World Boxing Council (WBC) heavyweight title since 2020. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 9 in (206 cm)\nReach\t85 in (216 cm)\nStance\tOrthodox\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t35\nWins\t34\nWins by KO\t24\nDraws\t1\n\n\n\n>[Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Usyk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Usyk) (Ukrainian: \u041e\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0430\u0301\u043d\u0434\u0440 \u041e\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0430\u0301\u043d\u0434\u0440\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0447 \u0423\u0301\u0441\u0438\u043a; born 17 January 1987) is a Ukrainian professional boxer. He has held multiple world championships in two weight classes, including the unified heavyweight titles since 2021, and the Ring magazine title since 2022. He has also held the International Boxing Organization (IBO) title since 2021. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 3 in (191 cm)\nReach\t78 in (198 cm)\nStance\tSouthpaw\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t21\nWins\t21\nWins by KO\t14"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "372cd305-c5dd-455d-bf2f-186efc22eaec", "title": "Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?", "body": "This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that a person representing the Republican Party has won the special election for OH's 6th district. If popular sources are in disagreement, an Ohio State source or statement will be used. If no election is held before January 1, 2025, the question is annulled.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-12 15:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-01-31 15:58:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21274", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/21274", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-12T03:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-12T03:59:00Z", "created_time": "2024-01-29T21:38:30.166744Z", "publish_time": "2024-01-31T15:58:00Z", "background_info": "In early January 2024, Rep. Bill Johnson communicated to the Governor of Ohio that he would be vacating his congressional seat effective of the 21st of January 2024 in order to take up position as the 10th President of Youngstown State University. \n\nOn the 4th of January, [Governor DeWine announced ] (https://governor.ohio.gov/media/news-and-media/governor-dewine-calls-special-election-for-ohios-6th-congressional-district) that the special election process was scheduled as followed: partisan primary elections will happen on the 19th of March, and the general election will happen on the 11th June 2024."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "c5501479-788a-4f36-9f36-67845b0fa494", "title": "Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?", "body": "The question will resolve as Yes if a terrorist attack in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France) injures and/or kills at least one person, other than the terrorist(s), between, and inclusive of, the day of the Opening Ceremony (26 July 2024) and the day of the Closing Ceremony (11 August 2024). The question will resolve as No if the above does not happen.\n\nAn event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the State of France, or by the French President, Prime Minister, or a member of the Council of Ministers.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 23:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-02-09 18:25:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21354", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/21354", "market_prob": 0.05, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "created_time": "2024-02-03T20:01:31.820118Z", "publish_time": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "background_info": "The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany.  Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.\nAt the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 100 injuries.  This was classified as domestic terrorism. [Centennial Olympic Park bombing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Olympic_Park_bombing)\nAt the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, a knife attack at a Beijing market left [three people dead and over 60 injured]((https://www.start.umd.edu/news/olympics-and-terrorism). Although it did not occur during the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, Korea, the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 on November 29, 1987 was [considered to be a terrorist attack by North Korea]( https://www.history.com/news/1988-seoul-olympics-north-korea-terrorist-attack) in an attempt to get the Olympics moved from Seoul."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "986a94d7-8314-4362-a0c2-079a7a736921", "title": "Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win \u226521 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "body": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Individual Neutral Athletes collectively win 21 or more gold medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The source of resolution will be the official medal tally published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if such reporting from the IOC is unavailable. Otherwise the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nIn the event that Individual Neutral Athletes are confirmed to have won 21 or more gold medals prior to the end of the Games, the market will resolve immediately to \"Yes\".", "resolution_date": "2024-08-12 13:52:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-03 16:34:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21486", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/21486", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-02-21T11:25:59.836187Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "background_info": "As per the Olympic Committee\u2019s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.\n\nThe Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged  1.7."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2bc93567-cbdb-4e67-8110-297f03d8e4a5", "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-01 17:53:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-10 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22161", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22161", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-05-01T17:53:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T06:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:59:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-07T03:50:41.923235Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-10T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike [targeted the Iranian embassy](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240) in Damascus, Syria, resulting in significant casualties including the deaths of top Iranian commanders. \n\nIn the aftermath, the United States has increased its security posture in the region, anticipating a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israeli or American assets. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials [consider such an attack \"inevitable.\"](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/politics/us-israel-iran-retaliation-strike/index.html)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "018ec15e-b988-4277-9c10-0ed216b03db5", "title": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 2024.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"}}>\n</iframe>", "resolution_date": "2024-05-31 22:00:31", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-11 20:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22298", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22298", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-11T17:32:31.900568Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-11T20:00:00Z", "background_info": "The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023\u2013present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour which [has threatened](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/egypt-threatens-to-suspend-key-peace-treaty-if-israel-pushes-into-rafah-on-its-border-officials-say.html) to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to state that an invasion is imminent and that Israel has a specific date set, though on April 9 it [was reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/israel-defense-gallant-deny-rafah-invasion-date) that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said there is no date set."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "20d37f8d-5821-43c2-b0ab-27cf86c56801", "title": "Will Albania qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Albania participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. The question will resolve as **No** for all other outcomes regarding Albania.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22314", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22314", "market_prob": 0.3, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.754523Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Albania)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "def787ae-d61f-49d4-9c29-c008e26619ea", "title": "Will Armenia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Armenia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Armenia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22315", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22315", "market_prob": 0.85, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.754671Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "9bad4cfe-06cf-4d17-b36a-c57ac6932827", "title": "Will Australia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Australia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Australia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22316", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22316", "market_prob": 0.15, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.754770Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Australia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2aa26fc9-0cb2-44f3-9a98-0f333023c38f", "title": "Will Austria qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Austria participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22317", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22317", "market_prob": 0.83, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.754866Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "2c4758a5-1593-4994-9248-7788ce96c3b1", "title": "Will Azerbaijan qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Azerbaijan participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Azerbaijan does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22318", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22318", "market_prob": 0.52, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.754962Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Azerbaijan)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "7dd984b2-0b01-4e86-bd22-384258cef5dc", "title": "Will Belgium qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Belgium participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If not, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22319", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22319", "market_prob": 0.95, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755057Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "c05dfe77-0a08-441c-bd91-6d1c1e70844a", "title": "Will Croatia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Croatia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22320", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22320", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755149Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "a9cb0170-8d73-4db1-bf5b-07769243cfcb", "title": "Will Cyprus qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Cyprus participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Cyprus does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22321", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22321", "market_prob": 0.634, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755243Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Cyprus)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "2355dc6a-9fe8-4a9f-ae91-9219524812e6", "title": "Will Czechia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Czechia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Czechia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22322", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22322", "market_prob": 0.05, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755334Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Czechia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "316299ba-c561-40e1-b4db-aa688d4a90dc", "title": "Will Denmark qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Denmark participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Denmark does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22323", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22323", "market_prob": 0.283, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755424Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Denmark)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a21f9798-c4a9-4a19-93a4-cce7b7ab7257", "title": "Will Estonia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Estonia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Estonia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22324", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22324", "market_prob": 0.8, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755514Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Estonia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "8acbd9e9-b791-44fb-898e-dd3e96fb2bc3", "title": "Will Finland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Finland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Finland does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22325", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22325", "market_prob": 0.95, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755626Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "90690ab4-e6f8-4a46-9390-694d293bd900", "title": "Will Georgia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Georgia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For any other outcome, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22326", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22326", "market_prob": 0.6, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755717Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Georgia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "bb0e2274-6a9d-41aa-b9f2-769b99fd7aec", "title": "Will Greece qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Greece participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Greece does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22327", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22327", "market_prob": 0.9, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755806Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "fda703a9-309a-4556-9fda-b5c33858d1f3", "title": "Will Iceland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Iceland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If not, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 23:30:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22328", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22328", "market_prob": 0.04, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T23:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.755897Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Iceland)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "fb2d9e2e-66dc-4044-8dc0-13ac9e840f07", "title": "Will Ireland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ireland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Ireland does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22329", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22329", "market_prob": 0.84, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.757678Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ireland)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "c7e6260b-ddfe-49ad-a7ed-cef3185679b6", "title": "Will Israel qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Israel participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Israel does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22330", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22330", "market_prob": 0.8, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.757814Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Israel)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "474b82c6-526e-4104-8d65-1c503c53532a", "title": "Will Latvia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Latvia participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Latvia does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22331", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22331", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.757908Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Latvia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "bd7da7f9-edd1-4a0e-b134-d5367f88d564", "title": "Will Lithuania qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lithuania participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Lithuania does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22332", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22332", "market_prob": 0.95, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758000Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "20718a14-e619-402f-bac9-cfeb94660759", "title": "Will Luxembourg qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Luxembourg participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other outcomes, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22333", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22333", "market_prob": 0.76, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758091Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Luxembourg)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "1a35fd38-c987-405c-b998-9a3c36e644d0", "title": "Will Malta qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Malta participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If they do not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22334", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22334", "market_prob": 0.038, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758179Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Malta)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "043e88d0-1b71-4a5a-9e66-2890f1e0062f", "title": "Will Moldova qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Moldova participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For any other outcome, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 23:30:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22335", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22335", "market_prob": 0.05, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T23:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758270Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Moldova)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "b6709d66-ad92-4b8b-b06f-60557e671da0", "title": "Will the Netherlands qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Netherlands participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If the Netherlands does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22336", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22336", "market_prob": 0.98, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758360Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "1f2a40ac-5509-4671-9daf-b63c6b93b670", "title": "Will Norway qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Norway participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Norway does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22337", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22337", "market_prob": 0.9, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758450Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "9021c55d-6ec6-4fe0-b854-44af2e3c455d", "title": "Will Poland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Poland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Poland does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 23:30:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22338", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22338", "market_prob": 0.8, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T23:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758538Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Poland)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "71244fe1-dcaf-4f94-9499-6be9c1d0f906", "title": "Will Portugal qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Portugal participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Portugal does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22339", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22339", "market_prob": 0.108, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758627Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Portugal)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "003b82de-fe0b-48fd-9393-07892bd7e411", "title": "Will San Marino qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if San Marino participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22340", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22340", "market_prob": 0.16, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758715Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (San Marino)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "7f268284-9654-4537-a0a5-2f60a78b3335", "title": "Will Serbia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Serbia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22341", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22341", "market_prob": 0.47, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758803Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Serbia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "99367df1-356f-446e-8220-8058c3e86328", "title": "Will Slovenia qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Slovenia participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If it does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22342", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22342", "market_prob": 0.8, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758891Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Slovenia)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "15a70c88-1f17-464a-a913-3cc279cfdd9f", "title": "Will Switzerland qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Switzerland participates in a Semi-final and is officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Switzerland does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-09 21:19:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22343", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22343", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T21:19:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.758979Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "7044aa49-340b-483a-b8da-410ac749f31e", "title": "Will Ukraine qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ukraine participates in a Semi-final and is then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. If Ukraine does not qualify, the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-07 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-12 16:00:03", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22344", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22344", "market_prob": 0.975, "resolve_time": "2024-05-07T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-12T11:16:35.759068Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-12T16:00:03.823000Z", "background_info": "The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 is set to take place in Malm\u00f6, Sweden, following the country's victory at the 2023 contest. The contest will be held at the Malm\u00f6 Arena, and will consist of two semi-finals on 7 and 9 May, and a final on 11 May 2024.\n\nOf the 37 participating countries, 6 are guaranteed to participate in the final: The hosting country (Sweden) and the \"Big Five\" countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). The remaining 31 countries will have to compete in the Semi-finals. In each Semi-final, 10 countries will qualify for the final, and the rest will not.\n\nMore information can be found on [Wikipedia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21827/countries-in-eurovision-2024-final/)\n\nSee also: [How the Eurovision Song Contest works](https://eurovision.tv/about/how-it-works)", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine)", "original_body": "This question will resolve immediately as **Yes** for countries that participate in a Semi-final and are then officially announced by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) as having qualified for the Eurovision 2024 Grand Final. For all other countries, the question will resolve as **No**."}}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "969728bd-2057-4a50-a04c-f80d43e90838", "title": "Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-01 18:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-13 22:04:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22403", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22403", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-13T21:35:02.868594Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "background_info": "In a significant escalation of regional tensions, [Iran launched a coordinated aerial attack targeting Israeli territory on April 13, 2024](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57). This action by Iran came as a direct retaliation for an [Israeli airstrike earlier in the month](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240#:~:text=An%20Israeli%20airstrike%20in%20a,at%20least%20five%20Iranian%20advisers.), which struck the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of seven Iranian officers, including three high-ranking commanders, intensifying Iran's resolve to respond."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "9763b216-e394-4341-887c-6bf8a7ba6814", "title": "Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report Donald Trump has testified, whether in person or remotely, at the [trial](https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/webcrim_attorney/Detail?which=case&docketNumber=q23XFOwZRDQ1d4LrNRdw2clqCMt/CzUoG/kRII/7Nmg=&countyId=K4i18rFVPQh5HTQ/kUoO3Q==&docketId=3Y4iKU5oHM75AtDme2cPhw==&docketDseq=T/O1YN_PLUS_BG65HkOeqEnpAkw==&defendantName=TRUMP,+DONALD&court=New+York+Supreme+Criminal+Court&courtType=U&recordType=U&recordNum=) concerning the so-called \"hush money\" payments to Stormy Daniels.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-15 06:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-17 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22415", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22415", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-15T04:07:58.256342Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The commencement of Donald Trump's [trial in the so-called \"hush money\" case](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4589001-5-things-to-know-ahead-of-trumps-hush-money-trial/) marks a historic moment as he becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges in court. The trial centers around allegations that Trump, during the 2016 presidential campaign, orchestrated a hush money payment to an adult film actress to prevent damaging stories from surfacing. This payment, and similar transactions, are claimed by the Manhattan district attorney to have been unlawfully logged as legal expenses by Trump\u2019s company.\n\nThe trial is scheduled to commence on April 15th, 2024 and is expected to last approximately six weeks.\n\n*This question is part of the Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup, however, if the trial has not concluded when the tournament ends on July 8, 2024, it will not be scored in the Quarterly Cup. It will still count as part of the annual leaderboard.*"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "00b81030-5b37-4e9c-821e-9f1cf8878aae", "title": "Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Gu\u021bul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 24, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that Evghenia Gu\u021bul has traveled to Russian territory within that period.", "resolution_date": "2024-05-31 21:59:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-25 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22547", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22547", "market_prob": 0.5, "resolve_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-23T12:12:26.159782Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "When it comes to separatism and Moldova, most will likely recall Transnistria, which is controlled by separatists and elements of the Russian Federation armed forces since the 1990s.\n\nHowever, another autonomous region of Moldova, [Gagauzia](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2022/walking-the-tightrope-towards-the-eu/4-gagauzia-the-restless-region-in-the-south/), is currently undergoing major \"temptation\" from Russia. The region, inhabited by over 120,000 Gagauzes, who are an Orthodox, mostly Russian speaking Moldovan minority, is newly connected to the Mir banking system, Russian [propaganda](https://dfrlab.org/2024/03/19/kremlin-media-blitz-gagauzia/) is widely spreading (most TV channels are Russian), and control of the [Chisinau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi%C8%99in%C4%83u) government is openly challenged.\n\nThe most important figure in this new development is Evghenia Gu\u021bul, a young pro-Russian politician, who was [elected](https://www.rferl.org/a/gutul-gagauzia-moldova-leader-shor-party/32412419.html) a governor of the region in the last year's elections, which brought a lot of controversy due to allegations of corruption and the fact that Gu\u021bul ran on a ticket of a banned Pro-Russian party (connected to the Russian oligarch Ilan Shor).\n\nGu\u021bul visited Russia twice in the last several weeks. The most recent [visit](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/04/10/moldovas-restive-gagauzia-region-mulls-using-russian-payment-cards/) occurred on the 8th of April, and before that on the 6th of March, during which she [met](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/03/07/pro-moscow-governor-of-moldovas-gagauzia-seeks-putins-help/) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (edit May 6, 2024: Gu\u021bul also appears to have been in Moscow when this question was launched, with a [meeting in Moscow on April 22](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-brings-criminal-case-against-pro-russian-gagauzia-leader-court-2024-04-24/) and on [April 24](https://twitter.com/EvgheniaGutul/status/1783236723297685785)).\n\nIn the aftermath of both visits Russia promised to \"protect\" Gagauzia and also to distribute monthly [payments](https://cepa.org/article/the-kremlin-decides-to-buy-a-population/) to Gagauzian civil servants and senior citizens (together accounting for approximately 25,000 people).\n\nMore Gu\u021bul visits in Russia might signal rapid development in this region, which could mean further deterioration of the relationship between Gagauzia and Moldovan government."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "bf678d40-3036-4032-8f36-2237d771c51a", "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the coordinates 48\u00b035'13.7\"N 37\u00b050'02.1\"E as under any of the following categories:\n\n\n\n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine\n\n- Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n\n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the location\n\n\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the location is not assessed to be in any of the categories indicating Russian control, which includes but is not limited to:\n\n\n\n- Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours\n\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location or a lack of Russian control of the location", "resolution_date": "2024-06-01 19:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-04-25 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22576", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/22576", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-04-24T17:17:59.769170Z", "publish_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). Ukraine has [reportedly said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aims to capture the city by May 9."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "24ccf0e6-fce0-4145-880e-ae41faaa0ea9", "title": "Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before July 1, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a [warrant of arrest](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\n* Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)\n* Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister)\n* Herzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff)", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 23:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-02 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23018", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23018", "market_prob": 0.004, "resolve_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-01T20:50:31.318316Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-02T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "7fee1818-7dbd-4450-85c4-0ea5b8f36a8d", "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before July 1, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after May 2, 2024, and before the listed date, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 23:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-03 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23039", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23039", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-02T16:30:43.731591Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-03T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. \u201cWe will do it in the first half of 2024,\u201d one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had \u201cmost of the means to carry out this goal\u201d. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine\u2019s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to \u201cminimise\u201d Russia\u2019s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)", "original_body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after May 2, 2024, and before the listed date, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "bef251eb-3df7-4747-a47b-55bf143440b3", "title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) holds all three of its main in-person college commencement ceremonies for the graduating Class of 2024 [scheduled](https://commencement.ucla.edu/schedule/ucla-commencement-schedule-alphabetical#college) for the following times and locations on June 14, 2024:\n\n- 11 AM at the Pauley Pavilion\n- 3 PM at the Pauley Pavilion\n- 7 PM at the Pauley Pavilion\n\nThe ceremonies must all occur at the specified locations and begin within 1 hour of the scheduled starting time. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if any ceremony either does not begin within an hour of the scheduled time, is moved to another location, or is held entirely online (i.e., without graduates, faculty, and guests attending in person).", "resolution_date": "2024-06-15 13:59:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-08 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23317", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23317", "market_prob": 0.95, "resolve_time": "2024-06-15T13:59:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-07T15:21:38.009646Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-08T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "On May 6, 2024, Columbia University [cancelled](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/06/columbia-commencement-ceremony-protest-live-updates/73583447007/) its main commencement ceremony, opting instead to honor its graduates in 19 smaller ceremonies for each of its colleges. The decision was made in response to pro-Palestinian protests that erupted at the university. \n\nUCLA has [cancelled in-person classes](https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/ucla-cancel-in-person-classes-again-after-more-israel-hamas-war-protests/) at its campus, and there has been speculation that it may cancel its main commencement as well. Its fellow southern California school, USC, recently [moved its ceremony](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-03/usc-shores-up-campus-limits-access-before-commencement) to the LA Coliseum.\n\nSee Also: \n\nMSN: [Pro-Palestinian Protests Put College Commencements in Jeopardy](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pro-palestinian-protests-put-college-commencements-in-jeopardy/ar-BB1lUU4h)\n\nNewsweek: [Full List of Colleges Cancelling Graduation Services Amid Campus Protests](https://www.newsweek.com/columbia-cancels-graduation-ceremony-universities-palestine-protests-1897560)\n\nUSA Today: [College graduation canceled due to anti-war protests? It's happened before](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2024/05/07/why-do-colleges-cancel-graduation-a-brief-history/73586349007/)"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "562ddbd5-e035-41f8-bfe7-f0febb074550", "title": "Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during the May 2024 World Health Assembly (WHA) the Pandemic Agreement is approved in a vote, according to reports from credible sources.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-02 20:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-09 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23384", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23384", "market_prob": 0.37, "resolve_time": "2024-06-02T20:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-27T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-27T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-07T21:02:57.328870Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "In late 2021 member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) [began negotiating an international agreement on pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-pandemic-agreement-what-it-is-what-it-isnt-and-what-it-could-mean-for-the-u-s), which has been known as the Pandemic Agreement or Pandemic Accord. The [goal of the agreement](https://www.who.int/news/item/01-12-2021-world-health-assembly-agrees-to-launch-process-to-develop-historic-global-accord-on-pandemic-prevention-preparedness-and-response) is to improve responsiveness to better combat future pandemics using lessons learned from the COVID-19 response.\n\nA [round of negotiations](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-03-2024-who-member-states-agree-to-resume-negotiations-aimed-at-finalizing-the-world-s-first-pandemic-agreement) aimed at finalizing the agreement began on April 29, 2024, and are scheduled to end on May 10, 2024. The agreement is [scheduled to be considered for adoption](https://www.who.int/news/item/28-03-2024-who-member-states-agree-to-resume-negotiations-aimed-at-finalizing-the-world-s-first-pandemic-agreement) at the upcoming [Seventy-seventh World Health Assembly](https://www.who.int/about/accountability/governance/world-health-assembly/seventy-seventh) taking place May 27 to June 1, 2024.\n\nThe level of agreement needed to approve the Pandemic Agreement may depend on the final form of the agreement, [such as whether it would be considered a treaty, regulation, or resolution](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-pandemic-agreement-what-it-is-what-it-isnt-and-what-it-could-mean-for-the-u-s/#:~:text=What%20are%20possible%20outcomes%20of%20the%20agreement%20negotiations%3F). Politicians in some WHO member countries, including the United States, [have stated opposition](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-chief-urges-countries-finalise-pandemic-accord-by-deadline-2024-05-03/) to the agreement on the basis of potentially being subject to legally binding rules within the agreement."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "8038bb02-caf1-4c4e-813d-632062ed1b3c", "title": "Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?", "body": "The question resolves as **Yes** if either Drake or Kendrick Lamar releases another diss track directly intended for the other artist after May 9, 2024 and before June 1, 2024.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-02 00:38:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-10 15:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23461", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23461", "market_prob": 0.05, "resolve_time": "2024-06-02T00:38:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-30T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-30T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-09T19:17:39.771617Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-10T15:00:00Z", "background_info": "Popular rappers Drake and Kendrick Lamar have been publicly feuding after a years-long contempt has bubbled into an all-out war, with each artist leveling enormous unsubstantiated accusations at the other. After the most recent round of the beef, with the release of Kendrick's \"Not Like Us\" and Drake's \"The Heart Part 6\", many have speculated that the feud has reached a tipping point and neither artist will release any further music. Do you think it's been played out, or there's more yet?\n\nFurther Background: [Wikipedia Drake\u2013Kendrick Lamar feud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%E2%80%93Kendrick_Lamar_feud)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "4f295219-f63f-41c7-b1f0-380b0fee4939", "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before June 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions): \n\n- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC). \n\n- The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\n- The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\n- The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines. \n\nIf there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-06 22:21:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-14 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23763", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23763", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-06T22:21:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-13T17:55:16.643493Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-14T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the  Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas.  \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "c4ee9645-0a4f-457a-8048-e36ebd8abeec", "title": "Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 5, 2024, credible sources report that the European Union (EU) has announced that new tariffs or duties will be imposed that would apply to imports of Chinese electric vehicles into the EU.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-04 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-16 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/23877", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/23877", "market_prob": 0.99, "resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-15T16:22:56.128271Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration imposed [new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and other goods](https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c), with the EV tariffs increasing to a total level of 102.5% from the previous total of 27.5%. [Analysts have suggested](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html) that the new tariffs may put pressure on the European Union (EU) to protect its own EV industry, as the US tariffs may effectively close off the US market, making the EU market more attractive to Chinese EV manufacturers.\n\nThe [European Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission) has been [conducting an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese EVs](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html) since [September 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsidy-investigation-into-chinese-electric-vehicles-2023-09-13/). The [investigation has a July 4 deadline](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752) to impose provisional anti-subsidy duties."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "5c4be2d5-6468-4416-8cef-4fcee16c7328", "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "body": "The question will be resolved as **YES** if [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Slovak media outlets or international news organizations report that a Slovak journalist or opposition politician has been criminally charged in connection with the assassination attempt.\n\nAlternatively, the resolution will also be **YES** if relevant Slovak institutions (e.g., the public prosecutor's office, courts, police, and similar authorities) issue a statement to that effect.\n\nOtherwise, the question will be resolved as **NO**.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-15 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-20 16:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24033", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24033", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-18T15:04:51.413237Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "background_info": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlov\u00e1. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, \u013dubo\u0161 Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert Kali\u0148\u00e1k, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana \u010caputov\u00e1 and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"Slovensk\u00ed Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "b197d229-e9b1-410a-abfe-a4c52824d747", "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions): \n\n- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC). \n\n- The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\n- The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\n- The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines. \n\nIf there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 04:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-18 22:55:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24034", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24034", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-18T18:53:41.497830Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-18T22:55:00Z", "background_info": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the  Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas.  \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2e2900f7-d216-4df6-9661-b794c27368ec", "title": "Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?", "body": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and/or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the incumbent Secretary-General Michael Lodge has been elected for a third term in the July elections. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-02 14:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-26 13:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24037", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24037", "market_prob": 0.74, "resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-19T12:59:11.290866Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "background_info": "The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:\n\n>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.\n\nIt describes itself as:\n\n>[an] organization through which States Parties to UNCLOS organize and control all mineral-resources-related activities in the Area for the benefit of humankind as a whole.\n\nThis means the ISA controls regulations on [Deep Sea Mining (DSM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_sea_mining) which has slowly become a massively contentious issue between nations, NGOs, and companies due to the fact that, whilst DSM will potentially allow mining companies to access vast amount of minerals critical in the manufacturing of renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, and batteries, those who oppose DSM see it resulting in long-term harm to ecosystems already at risk due to environmental deviations arising from global warming. \n\nThe Secretary-General incumbent is the British national Michael Lodge who is seeking his third term in the upcoming July elections. Tood Woody, via Bloomberg describes his history at the ISA:\n\n>Lodge\u2019s candidacy emerged Sunday in a diplomatic note from ISA member state Kiribati, a small South Pacific island nation that announced it would sponsor Lodge\u2019s nomination. Candidates for secretary-general are usually sponsored by their country of citizenship: The UK sponsored Lodge\u2019s first term as secretary-general (though his election to a second term, which happened under a \u201csilent procedure\u201d during the Covid-19 pandemic, is less clear). Carvalho, an official with UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, was likewise put forth by Brazil\u2019s delegate in March.\n\nNotably, the UK was a signatory of a [memorandum](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-supports-moratorium-on-deep-sea-mining-to-protect-ocean-and-marine-ecosystems) against DSM. However, as noted in the above article, Lodge has found support of island nations - such as Kiribati - who stand to benefit immensely from DSM.\n\nOne DSM company - [The Metals Company (TMC)](https://metals.co) - has been a major supporter of DSM and has carried out extensive environmental studies supporting its position of allowing the practice.  TMC has also carried out [pilot studies](https://metals.co/nori/) in the Clarion-Clipper Zone (CCZ) with Allseas' dedicated Deep Sea Mining Vessel \"*Hidden Gem*\" which were successful.\n\nSee also Southern Fried Science: [International Seabed Authority gears up for a leadership challenge at the July meeting.](https://www.southernfriedscience.com/international-seabed-authority-gears-up-for-a-leadership-challenge-at-the-july-meeting/)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "d1ab33cf-238c-4cd8-9557-6906ad995980", "title": "Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after May 22, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel have arrived in Haiti.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-03 16:06:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-23 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24302", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24302", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-06-03T16:06:00Z", "close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-22T19:01:53.999182Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Violence and unrest have been on the rise in Haiti, resulting in former Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry being blocked from returning to his country and eventually resigning in March of 2023. A [multinational mission](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/05/1149831) to provide security assistance has been in the works since 2023. Forces from Kenya's [General Service Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Service_Unit_(Kenya)) (GSU), a branch of the [Kenya Police Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Police) are [planned to deploy to Haiti](https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/green-light-for-kenyan-police-boots-on-the-ground-in-haiti/) as part of this effort. However, the deployment of the Kenyan police has faced several setbacks, including [legal challenges](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-lawyers-ask-court-hold-government-contempt-planned-police-deployment-2024-05-17/) and [political opposition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/28/kenya-plan-deploy-police-haiti) in Kenya.\n\nOn May 22, 2024, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/americas/kenya-haiti-delegation-intl-latam/index.html) that Kenyan officials had arrived in Haiti to assess readiness to receive the Kenyan police forces, who are scheduled to arrive by the end of the month. However, [recent reporting has also suggested the potential for additional delays](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/kenya-police-deployment-haiti-faces-130709387.html)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "e2e0206a-2e2f-4451-aa9f-9984e0b0e9a4", "title": "Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 6th, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China or Taiwan as a result of armed conflict between the two parties.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-07 12:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-24 14:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24329", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24329", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-23T23:38:53.443930Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "background_info": "China has escalated military tensions with Taiwan, launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. \n\nInitial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "d38e058c-d158-41c5-a76a-a180430e14e1", "title": "Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK general election.\n\nIf Sunak is elected as a Member of Parliament for any constituency in the July 4 2024 UK general election, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nResolution should cite [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports, or an official announcement from the returning officer of the constituency in which Sunak is a candidate (if he is a candidate in any constituency).", "resolution_date": "2024-07-04 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-30 12:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24622", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24622", "market_prob": 0.252, "resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-25T22:12:06.666461Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "background_info": "[Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector) since 2015.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, [Sunak won his seat](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector#Elections_in_the_2010s) with 63.6% of the vote; the nearest competitor was the Labour Party candidate on 16.4% of the vote. \n\nSince 2019 the Conservative Party, in power since 2010, has seen a significant decline in its support according to [opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector#Graphical_summary); and as of late May 2024, it trails the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points. \n\n[Sunak's personal approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) has been in negative territory for nearly his entire tenure as Prime Minister, and is [among the worst for any British Conservative or Labour leader](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader) in Ipsos data going back to 1978.\n\nIn May 2024 [Sunak called a snap general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69050450), to be held on July 4.\n\nSunak is expected to contest the constituency of [Richmond and Northallerton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_and_Northallerton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in the July 4 election, which was created following the [2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies?useskin=vector)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "0a7b9a5f-9ec9-4cd8-ae8c-642c8cd8e320", "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "body": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-12 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-05-30 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24753", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24753", "market_prob": 0.78, "resolve_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-28T21:37:26.756252Z", "publish_time": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla\u2019s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla\u2019s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as \u201ccrap\u201d.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular,  Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "9b9c9395-2a85-4e52-ac2c-6fa14f1f0425", "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "body": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "resolution_date": "2024-06-28 20:10:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-01 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24806", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24806", "market_prob": 0.04, "resolve_time": "2024-06-28T20:10:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:42.866565Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "9aa06c5f-17d5-472b-97da-65a08c196a4e", "title": "Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the South African National Assembly officially elects a president before July 1, 2024, according to reports from credible sources.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-01 03:59:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-01 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24811", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24811", "market_prob": 0.9, "resolve_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-31T17:17:34.077352Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "South Africa's 2024 national election, held on May 29, is highly contested, with the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) potentially losing its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years. The president of South Africa is elected by Parliament, specifically the National Assembly, requiring a simple majority of 201 out of 400 lawmakers. Due to the [ANC's declining support](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320), coalition talks are anticipated, which could delay the election of the president.\n\nThe results of the national election held on May 29, 2024, are expected to be announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) by the Sunday following the election, and the new Parliament [must hold its first session within 14 days of the announcement of the election results](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320)."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "2aa9e48b-1259-48a1-86ed-d27035ea0f00", "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance secures more seats than any other single party or coalition, thereby maintaining the highest number of Hungarian seats in the European Parliament, according to credible sources.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 22:33:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-02 13:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24813", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/24813", "market_prob": 0.96, "resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "created_time": "2024-05-31T20:36:56.545942Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "background_info": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orb\u00e1n's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as P\u00e9ter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet \u00e9s Szabads\u00e1g (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "b2a8d896-795d-4710-a325-7226c5822f22", "title": "Will OpenAI publicly commit to the \"no retaliation for public risk disclosure\" principle before July 1, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2024, both of the following are true:\n\n- OpenAI publicly commits to the \"no retaliation for public risk disclosure\" principle via a statement from the company or a company spokesperson, such as Sam Altman. The statement may be formal (such as a press release) or informal (such as a tweet or quote in an interview). The statement from OpenAI must indicate a new level of commitment to the principle in question, relative to the time the righttowarn.ai statement was published; it cannot be a reiteration that, for example, \"we already have a culture of open criticism\". \n- Metaculus verifies that the company has accepted the principle to the satisfaction of at least one member of righttowarn.ai. Metaculus may reach out to select signatories or endorsers to assess their level of satisfaction with OpenAI's commitment. Statements must be at least as rigorous as \"this was a good first step\" for this question to resolve as **Yes**.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-01 17:47:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-04 23:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25092", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25092", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-07-01T17:47:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-30T18:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-30T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-04T22:35:13.317786Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-04T23:00:00Z", "background_info": "On June 4, 2024, a group of current and former employees at frontier AI labs called for \"[sweeping changes to the artificial intelligence industry, including greater transparency and protections for whistle-blowers](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/04/technology/openai-culture-whistleblowers.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xE0._mTr.aNO4f_hEp2J4&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb).\"\n\nIn a public statement titled \"[A Right to Warn about Advanced Artificial Intelligence](https://righttowarn.ai/),\" the group said:\n\n> We are current and former employees at frontier AI companies, and we believe in the potential of AI technology to deliver unprecedented benefits to humanity.\n\n> We also understand the serious risks posed by these technologies. These risks range from the further entrenchment of existing inequalities, to manipulation and misinformation, to the loss of control of autonomous AI systems potentially resulting in human extinction. AI companies themselves have acknowledged these risks [1, 2, 3], as have governments across the world [4, 5, 6] and other AI experts [7, 8, 9].\n\n> We are hopeful that these risks can be adequately mitigated with sufficient guidance from the scientific community, policymakers, and the public. However, AI companies have strong financial incentives to avoid effective oversight, and we do not believe bespoke structures of corporate governance are sufficient to change this.\n\n> AI companies possess substantial non-public information about the capabilities and limitations of their systems, the adequacy of their protective measures, and the risk levels of different kinds of harm. However, they currently have only weak obligations to share some of this information with governments, and none with civil society. We do not think they can all be relied upon to share it voluntarily.\n\n> So long as there is no effective government oversight of these corporations, current and former employees are among the few people who can hold them accountable to the public. Yet broad confidentiality agreements block us from voicing our concerns, except to the very companies that may be failing to address these issues. Ordinary whistleblower protections are insufficient because they focus on illegal activity, whereas many of the risks we are concerned about are not yet regulated. Some of us reasonably fear various forms of retaliation, given the history of such cases across the industry. We are not the first to encounter or speak about these issues.\n\n> **We therefore call upon advanced AI companies to commit to these principles.**\n\n> 1. **That the company will not enter into or enforce** any agreement that prohibits \u201cdisparagement\u201d or criticism of the company for risk-related concerns, nor retaliate for risk-related criticism by hindering any vested economic benefit;\n2. **That the company will facilitate a verifiably anonymous process** for current and former employees to raise risk-related concerns to the company\u2019s board, to regulators, and to an appropriate independent organization with relevant expertise;\n3. **That the company will support a culture of open criticism** and allow its current and former employees to raise risk-related concerns about its technologies to the public, to the company\u2019s board, to regulators, or to an appropriate independent organization with relevant expertise, so long as trade secrets and other intellectual property interests are appropriately protected;\n4. **That the company will not retaliate against current and former employees who publicly share risk-related confidential information after other processes have failed.** We accept that any effort to report risk-related concerns should avoid releasing confidential information unnecessarily. Therefore, once an adequate process for anonymously raising concerns to the company\u2019s board, to regulators, and to an appropriate independent organization with relevant expertise exists, we accept that concerns should be raised through such a process initially. However, as long as such a process does not exist, current and former employees should retain their freedom to report their concerns to the public.", "reformat_metaculus_question": {"original_question": "Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following \"right to warn\" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)", "original_body": "Each sub-question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2024, both of the following are true:\n\n- OpenAI publicly commits to the indicated [\"right to warn\" principle](https://righttowarn.ai/#:~:text=We%20therefore%20call%20upon%20advanced%20AI%20companies%20to%20commit%20to%20these%20principles%3A) via a statement from the company or a company spokesperson, such as Sam Altman. The statement may be formal (such as a press release) or informal (such as a tweet or quote in an interview). The statement from OpenAI must indicate a new level commitment to the principle in question, relative to the time that the righttowarn.ai statement was published; it cannot be a reiteration that, for example, \"we already have a culture of open criticism\". \n- Metaculus verifies that the company has accepted the principle to the satisfaction of at least one member of [righttowarn.ai](https://righttowarn.ai/). Metaculus may reach out to select signatories or endorsers to assess their level of satisfaction with OpenAI's commitment. Statements must be at least as rigorous as \"this was a good first step\" for a given sub question to resolve as **Yes**."}}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "7b9824dd-e3b5-4001-afce-f07c97b292f1", "title": "Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?", "body": "This question resolves **Yes** if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is included in Iran's Guardian Council's list of qualified presidential candidates for the upcoming presidential election.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-11 06:59:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-07 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25125", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25125", "market_prob": 0.06, "resolve_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-11T06:59:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-06T02:34:00.930791Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-07T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.\n\nIran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran\u2019s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.\n\n[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections. \n\nThe Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "f000aff9-3ef3-451e-9f9d-595ca6be169e", "title": "Will the Republicans Party of France (Les R\u00e9publicains) form a political alliance with the National Rally for the 2024 French legislative election?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before June 30, 2024, an electoral alliance or coalition agreement is officially announced between the Republicans Party (Les R\u00e9publicains) and National Rally (Rassemblement National) for the upcoming [French legislative election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).  If no such agreement is announced, this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-02 19:30:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-13 16:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25410", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25410", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-07-02T19:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-29T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-29T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-12T16:43:52.309671Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-13T16:30:00Z", "background_info": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/world/europe/france-conservatives-far-right-alliance.html):\n\n>The head of France\u2019s conservative party on Tuesday *(June 12, 2024)* called for an alliance with the far right in upcoming snap elections, breaking a longstanding taboo and throwing his party into deep turmoil as the shock waves from President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament coursed through the country.\n\nIn France, due to the incentives of the country's electoral system, coalitions are [generally necessary](https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03359160) prior to the election rather than afterwards as is the case in most parliamentary democracies. National Rally is #1 in the [polling averages](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/), which is creating unprecedented incentives for mainstream French conservatives, who may be faced with the choice of either allying with National Rally if they want to regain power or else in practical terms facing a higher probability of losing the election."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "12dd9a37-79d1-4453-93ab-259d41991bb3", "title": "Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say \"deepfake\" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if during the broadcast of the presidential debate held by CNN scheduled for June 27, 2024, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or one of the moderators utters the word \"deepfake.\" If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nDetermination of whether one of the candidates or moderators has uttered \"deepfake\" will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus's Admins. They will be the sole deciders of whether this has happened or not, and their decision will be final. In cases of ambiguity they may consult CNN's official transcript, typically posted at [transcripts.cnn.com](https://transcripts.cnn.com/). It's important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of the word, especially if it does not appear in the transcript, this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-06-30 16:14:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-19 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25488", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25488", "market_prob": 0.4, "resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-17T21:21:38.419686Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Related Metaculus question: [Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17180/deepfake-costs-election-before-2025/)\n\nBoth candidates have recently had exposure to the subject:\n\n- In his interview with Youtube podcaster Logan Paul on June 13, 2024, Donald Trump [discussed](https://youtu.be/xrFdHO7FH8w?si=f-f0AMwAt_S0F5pB&t=2741) deepfakes, describing them as \"disconcerting\" and \"alarming,\" although avoiding specific usage of the word. \n\n- Joe Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on June 10, 2024, [described](https://wcyb.com/news/nation-world/white-house-claims-recent-viral-videos-of-biden-are-actually-deepfakes-president-joe-biden-karine-jean-pierre-normandy-france-apulia-italy-g7-summit-2024-election-politics) viral videos of Joe Biden appearing confused as \"deepfakes.\" \n\nCNN's current plans are for the debate to be [moderated by](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html) Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It will be 90 minutes, with two commercial breaks.\n\nSee also: \n\nWashington Post [AI deepfakes threaten to upend global elections. No one can stop them.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/23/ai-deepfake-election-2024-us-india/)\n\n[Purdue profs show how deepfakes could impact 2024 presidential election](https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team-8/purdue-profs-show-how-deepfakes-could-impact-2024-presidential-election/)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "ac7602fb-6dd9-4b1b-972a-93e8d947a0a0", "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on Friday June 28, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Gamestop than Docusign, when checked by Metaculus after 4:00 PM EDT (8:00 PM UTC). If CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Docusign than Gamestop, this question resolves as **No**.\n\n- Gamestop's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/gamestop/marketcap/).\n- Docusign's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/docusign/marketcap/).", "resolution_date": "2024-06-28 22:11:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-19 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25513", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25513", "market_prob": 0.16, "resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-18T22:07:06.923011Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000012/gme-20240203.htm), Gamestop is a specialty retailer with 4,169 physical stores, offering games, entertainment products and technology. In the year ended December 31, 2023, it made $6.7 million in net income with $5.27 billion in revenues. Its revenues were *down* 11% year over year.\n\nAccording to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261333/000126133324000045/docu-20240131.htm), Docusign offers contract lifecycle management software and the world's leading electronic signature product. In the year ended January 31, 2024, it made $73.98 million in net income with $2.76 million in revenues. Its revenues were *up* 9.8% year over year. \n\nAs of June 18, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap reported a market capitalization of $10.52 billion for GameStop compared with $10.43 billion for DocuSign.\n\nSee Also\n\nFox Business: [GameStop meme stock mania is SEC\u2019s bad dream on repeat | GameStop shares have advanced over 100% this quarter](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gamestop-meme-stock-mania-secs-bad-dream-repeat)\n\nAP: [Gamestop shares slump following annual shareholder meeting](https://apnews.com/article/gamestop-stock-annual-shareholder-meeting-db6785418358f3446e343d1b6647604d)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "2dca31c7-5156-44fc-afca-0bf5715e35f0", "title": "Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event that in the 2024 UK general election held on July 4, 2024, Nigel Farage is elected as the member of parliament (MP) for any UK constituency. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur, unless the general election is cancelled or postponed beyond July 4 2024, in which case the question will be **annulled**.\n\nResolution should cite credible media reports from the BBC, the Times, the Financial Times, the Guardian, or other major UK news sources; or the official announcement of the returning officer for any constituency in which Nigel Farage is a candidate. \n\nFarage need not be sworn in as an MP for the question to resolve as **Yes** -- this question resolves on the basis of his election or non-election.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-04 22:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-06-20 11:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25520", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25520", "market_prob": 0.95, "resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-19T12:50:46.876535Z", "publish_time": "2024-06-20T11:00:00Z", "background_info": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK?useskin=vector) since June 2024, having previously been the leader of [UK Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party) and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of [Clacton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in Essex.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, the Conservative Party candidate, Giles Watling, won the seat with 72.3% of the vote, and is standing for re-election. However, recent polling suggests that Farage is favoured to win the constituency. \n\nThe Times: [Nigel Farage set to win Clacton \u2018with biggest swing in modern history\u2019](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6)\n\n>Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.\n\n>The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.\n\n>Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Reform would be \u201cextremely rare\u201d and \u201cunprecedented in modern electoral history\u201d."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "98c2b0df-c73b-42b1-a5bc-8bf8dec36e3e", "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "body": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.\n\nTo qualify for a **Yes** resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.\n\nIf such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-15 04:01:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-01 11:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25755", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25755", "market_prob": 0.02, "resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-30T05:29:51.569016Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "background_info": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: \u201cI know I\u2019m not a young man\u2026I don\u2019t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>\u201cI give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn\u2019t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.\u201d"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "45d14e88-9659-400f-9c5c-fecb64baa4ad", "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 16:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-08 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25767", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25767", "market_prob": 0.001, "resolve_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-06T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-06-30T21:09:39.806575Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3                 | Adlai Stevenson                 |\n| 1932 | 4                 | Franklin D. Roosevelt           |\n| 1924 | 103               | John Davis                      |\n| 1920 | 44                | James Cox                       |\n| 1912 | 46                | Woodrow Wilson                  |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman  [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/).   \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br>\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br>\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br>\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a260cfcb-03d0-48d6-8cdf-6431f5e176c6", "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-05 14:44:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-16 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25791", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25791", "market_prob": 0.005, "resolve_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-01T20:43:58.027722Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It\u2019s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden\u2019s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "05af4a29-1f0b-4869-982c-84c17fd53048", "title": "Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than that of \"Deadpool\" and \"The Wolverine\" combined?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office opening for the **Deadpool & Wolverine** reported by Boxofficemojo on the [movie's page](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for **Deadpool** (2016) and **The Wolverine** (2013): $132,434,639 + $53,113,752.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 14:38:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-16 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25850", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25850", "market_prob": 0.33, "resolve_time": "2024-07-29T14:38:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-25T10:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-25T10:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-06T12:50:19.957156Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "**Deadpool & Wolverine** is an upcoming blockbuster by Marvel Studios scheduled to be released on July 26, 2024 featuring the two iconic heroes from the X-Men Universe.\n\nThe recent projection from Deadline puts the domestic opening to [$160-$165 million](https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-opening-projection-1236000799/), which would not only be the best opening year-to-date (beating **Inside Out 2** with $154 million) but also a record start for an R-rated movie. \n\nAnother projection from June was even higher, [at $200+ million](https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545/).\n\nThe ticket seller Fandango [reported on May 21](https://www.gamespot.com/articles/deadpool-and-wolverine-has-strongest-day-one-ticket-pre-sales-in-franchise-history-at-fandango/1100-6523599/) that their ticket pre-sales for the movie were the site's biggest ones in 2024 up to date."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "8bb267da-09f7-4aeb-aac4-efba50232f29", "title": "On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "body": "This question resolves Yes if, on July 17, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to Companies Market Cap, when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "resolution_date": "2024-07-18 23:52:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-08 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25871", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25871", "market_prob": 0.56, "resolve_time": "2024-07-18T23:52:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-08T12:51:01.751852Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "6b6ab6b3-d5ab-4b5d-9db8-bdeb6e105e1a", "title": "Will the  CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)\t\n be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for July 20, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on July 20, 2023.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 19:43:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-09 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25933", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25933", "market_prob": 0.5, "resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.715213Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "4b2d4ecd-127f-4809-86d7-b8547daa11c4", "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-31 11:13:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-10 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25953", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25953", "market_prob": 0.49, "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:13:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-08T20:59:38.944842Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "e5e7f504-3008-4db3-aa00-a7f01ee92374", "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-31 11:15:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-10 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25954", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25954", "market_prob": 0.4, "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.026941Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "c51a36c0-60ec-493b-ab07-962dbe8a2008", "title": "Will Tadej Poga\u010dar win the Tour de France 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 19:36:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-10 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25957", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25957", "market_prob": 0.62, "resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.420182Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note  also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year\u2019s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "02c64e69-bb34-4857-8d64-d260f3a68239", "title": "Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 19:35:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-10 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25958", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25958", "market_prob": 0.4, "resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.500827Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note  also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year\u2019s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "3b16c1d1-de34-4271-8255-727d4aade114", "title": "Will someone other than Tadej Poga\u010dar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "body": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 19:36:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-10 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25959", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25959", "market_prob": 0.23, "resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.580999Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note  also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year\u2019s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "d2cdec75-6dcd-4368-af8d-e9833e07f9cc", "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 10:13:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-28 13:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25981", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25981", "market_prob": 0.49, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T10:43:02.596228Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "background_info": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, [dominate racing in distances between 800m and the marathon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalenjin_people#Sport).  It is estimated that 40% of the top honours available to men in international athletics at these distances (Olympic medals, World Championships medals, and World Cross Country Championships honours) have been earned by Kalenjin runners, in spite of the ethnicity representing less than 0.1% of the human population.\n\nWill they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a8d4831e-ed65-4aa3-a028-ab6cb12c3f62", "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-04 20:05:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-26 12:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25982", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25982", "market_prob": 0.05, "resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T10:52:27.493880Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "background_info": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "72e11e56-78eb-4a66-8cee-5a4316df1de2", "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at the 2024 Paris Olympics, any men's pole vault athlete clears the bar at 6.04m or higher, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-05 21:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-27 11:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25984", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25984", "market_prob": 0.72, "resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T11:23:02.141778Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "background_info": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record for the men's pole vault at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record [has risen to 6.24m](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression), set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024. In 2020, his only chance so far to break the Olympic record, the Swede did succeed at his 6.19m WR attempt, though he had already won gold with 6.02m.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games on account of doping, will his record be broken by the dominant world record holder, or maybe by another competitor?\n\nThe men's pole vault [is scheduled](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/athletics/men-s-pole-vault?day=3-august) to begin August 3, 2024."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "7789be3a-f37c-4cd8-90bb-38d03bd322cb", "title": "Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **No** if women's teams representing eight different National Olympic Committees (NOC) win gold in these eight team sports at the 2024 Paris Olympics: \n\n- association football \n- 3\u00d73 basketball\n- 5\u00d75 basketball\n- field hockey\n- handball \n- rugby sevens\n- volleyball\n- water polo.\n\nOtherwise, the same NOC must have won at least two of these events, so the question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nThe question can resolve as soon as it becomes clear one of these conditions will happen (e.g. neither team playing the final of the last event has won any of the others).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 15:30:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-29 00:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25988", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25988", "market_prob": 0.8, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T12:09:26.815651Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "background_info": "Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. [These are](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/information/team-sports-how-can-your-team-qualify-for-the-paris-2024-olympics):\n\n* Association football\n* Basketball 5\u00d75\n* Basketball 3\u00d73\n* Field hockey\n* Handball\n* Rugby sevens\n* Volleyball\n* Water polo\n\n(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each nation can qualify, unlike the other sports.)\n\nWill the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports? The"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "cadca4c7-4e77-4e80-a3a5-a079198fe341", "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-04 23:30:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-28 03:59:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25989", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25989", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T12:30:56.024760Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "background_info": "[Tennis at the Olympics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics) has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "83dbb226-7fa1-4909-91b3-a96667df5879", "title": "At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic gold medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 17:24:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-26 18:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25992", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25992", "market_prob": 0.06, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T17:24:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T13:34:31.950094Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-26T18:00:00Z", "background_info": "[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "f0fdd2a4-1f24-4897-a648-0d6cc026302e", "title": "Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 11:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-27 18:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25993", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/25993", "market_prob": 0.18, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T13:47:13.862683Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "background_info": "[Medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a fairly small number of countries; the United States alone has won about 1 out of every 6 medals ever awarded, and a total of ten countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are about 60 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal; the most recent countries to win their first medal, in the Tokyo 2020 Games, were Burkina Faso, San Marino and Turkmenistan.\n\nWill at least 5 new countries win their first medal at the current Games?"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "087529c6-907a-4684-a570-2df072b785f6", "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "body": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-17 18:33:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-09 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26004", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26004", "market_prob": 0.5, "resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.693255Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "1454a8b9-4fb5-453c-bb0c-a10d04d6449f", "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "body": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-17 18:33:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-09 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26005", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26005", "market_prob": 0.35, "resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.797426Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "34c4c223-8c1d-487a-8889-3c71307d8ebb", "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "body": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-17 18:34:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-09 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26006", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26006", "market_prob": 0.65, "resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.878926Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "acb9c9f0-0004-4a32-a14e-4c90e30cb2bc", "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "body": "This question resolves as Yes if the winning time of the men's 100m race is less than 9.63s.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-04 20:07:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-11 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26021", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26021", "market_prob": 0.2, "resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.090144Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Usain Bolt's 9.63s Olympic record has stood since the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "1aea8f98-cebf-4efb-aeac-c12a8e4945c7", "title": "Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win \u226515 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "body": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Individual Neutral Athletes collectively win 15 or more gold medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The source of resolution will be the official medal tally published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or other credible sources if such reporting from the IOC is unavailable. Otherwise the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIn the event that Individual Neutral Athletes are confirmed to have won 15 or more gold medals prior to the end of the Games, the market will resolve immediately to \"Yes\".", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 16:32:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-12 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26095", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26095", "market_prob": 0.26, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:32:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.214282Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "As per the Olympic Committee\u2019s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.\n\nThe Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged  1.7."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "3707af72-060e-4433-afbb-e2348dc97e5e", "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?", "body": "This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 19:40:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-12 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26096", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26096", "market_prob": 0.053, "resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:40:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.339940Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "655703fa-82ef-431c-8698-e3200509908a", "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 76k and less than or equal to 77k?", "body": "This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 19:40:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-12 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26097", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26097", "market_prob": 0.2, "resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:40:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.420167Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "09373af3-c8c7-47c2-a4eb-f82569e2ad2c", "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?", "body": "This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 19:39:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-12 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26098", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26098", "market_prob": 0.21, "resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:39:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.501388Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "8100665d-1923-4b3a-9428-871843a7e081", "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 11:12:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-15 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26139", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26139", "market_prob": 0.65, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-12T21:11:00.425968Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, dominate racing in distances 800m and longer. Will they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "09dfe0e3-5313-4455-b7f0-a0f6a617b05e", "title": "Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6?", "body": "This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 5 and less than or equal to 6, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 12:58:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-15 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26157", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26157", "market_prob": 0.35, "resolve_time": "2024-07-29T12:58:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-12T21:20:10.454149Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "e86a616b-70c2-44f3-9f7b-2171bfa37826", "title": "Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5?", "body": "This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 5, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 12:59:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-15 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26158", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26158", "market_prob": 0.47, "resolve_time": "2024-07-29T12:59:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-12T21:20:10.657820Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "96400ef3-2bc6-4210-8890-19b364b2038c", "title": "Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?", "body": "This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 12:59:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-15 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26159", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26159", "market_prob": 0.62, "resolve_time": "2024-07-29T12:59:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-12T21:20:10.767906Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "99f27844-0a4e-4762-9ca8-e2ba5042828f", "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the swimming events.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 16:36:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-16 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26189", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26189", "market_prob": 0.7, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:13.726077Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have athletes competing in multiple events. Will the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "b4a380c8-2a18-4fdd-aeb8-50e92e75d009", "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the winning height of the men's pole vault at the 2024 Paris Olympics is 6.04m or higher.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 00:39:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-17 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26211", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26211", "market_prob": 0.8, "resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:39:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-15T18:08:25.645833Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record has risen to 6.24m, set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games, will his record be broken Duplantis or another competitor?"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "dd039451-e7ca-45c8-9186-d6322b124cef", "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-05 16:54:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-18 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26232", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26232", "market_prob": 0.2, "resolve_time": "2024-08-05T16:54:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-15T18:34:29.851788Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It\u2019s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden\u2019s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "d45c40ed-8175-4304-9131-e5164ac45b88", "title": "Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than that of \"Deadpool\" and \"The Wolverine\" combined?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office opening for the **Deadpool & Wolverine** reported by Boxofficemojo on the [movie's page](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for **Deadpool** (2016) and **The Wolverine** (2013): $132,434,639 + $53,113,752.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 20:06:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-18 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26233", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26233", "market_prob": 0.8, "resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:06:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.217584Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "**Deadpool & Wolverine** is an upcoming blockbuster by Marvel Studios scheduled to be released on July 26, 2024 featuring the two iconic heroes from the X-Men Universe.\n\nThe recent projection from Deadline puts the domestic opening to [$160-$165 million](https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-opening-projection-1236000799/), which would not only be the best opening year-to-date (beating **Inside Out 2** with $154 million) but also a record start for an R-rated movie. \n\nAnother projection from June was even higher, [at $200+ million](https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545/).\n\nThe ticket seller Fandango [reported on May 21](https://www.gamespot.com/articles/deadpool-and-wolverine-has-strongest-day-one-ticket-pre-sales-in-franchise-history-at-fandango/1100-6523599/) that their ticket pre-sales for the movie were the site's biggest ones in 2024 up to date."}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "68d3ce69-b22b-46d4-9ace-cd350a6e839d", "title": "Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of world records broken during the Paris Olympics is 24 or greater.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 16:45:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-18 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26236", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26236", "market_prob": 0.733, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:45:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.958714Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "In the last three Summer Olympics, the number of world records broken was:\n\nLondon 2012: 32\nRio de Janeiro 2016: 23\nTokyo 2020: 27\n\nIn '24, will 24 or more records be broken?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "3cbc291f-d4d6-473c-9593-301f9ba5c6ab", "title": "Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as No if women's teams representing eight different National Olympic Committees (NOC) win gold in the eight team sports - association football, 3\u00d73 basketball, 5\u00d75 basketball, field hockey, handball, rugby sevens, voleyball and water polo.\n\nOtherwise, the same NOC must have won at least two of these events, so the question resolves as **Yes**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 15:35:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-19 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26305", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26305", "market_prob": 0.65, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:35:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-17T15:00:59.863608Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. These are:\n\nAssociation football\nBasketball 5\u00d75\nBasketball 3\u00d73\nField hockey\nHandball\nRugby sevens\nVolleyball\nWater polo\n\n(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each team can qualify, unlike the other sports.)\n\nWill the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports?"}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "335c6964-01cd-4f9d-97d8-7664479cb59e", "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 00:37:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-22 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26388", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26388", "market_prob": 0.525, "resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:37:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.852897Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Tennis at the Olympics has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "6034a751-ff6b-431b-9219-05474cd2cf2e", "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 16:34:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-24 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26555", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26555", "market_prob": 0.78, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.769051Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "4ab87e45-24b5-441f-885c-75c4fb60fab9", "title": "Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "body": "This question will resolve Yes if Poland is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-12 00:11:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-25 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26570", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26570", "market_prob": 0.2, "resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.804748Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "ffc1e1b7-9da0-4a96-a75d-d64894988862", "title": "Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "body": "This question will resolve Yes if Germany is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-12 00:11:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-25 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26571", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26571", "market_prob": 0.2, "resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.019786Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "b9303790-e836-41f8-8b50-d093394c557e", "title": "Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "body": "This question will resolve Yes if a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-12 00:12:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-25 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26573", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26573", "market_prob": 0.2, "resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.441651Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "31365ed8-a055-4037-931c-68ac132ce181", "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-04 20:06:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-26 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26646", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26646", "market_prob": 0.27, "resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:06:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-25T13:46:56.025672Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "6d495944-3450-43b3-a130-8c610c896cd3", "title": "At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?", "body": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic gold medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 18:20:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-07-29 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26683", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26683", "market_prob": 0.45, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T18:20:00Z", "close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-07-26T20:40:51.475188Z", "publish_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "9e4c2428-adf6-4524-891c-cdabcad8e356", "title": "Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?", "body": "This question resolves as Yes if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that, before Monday, August 12, 2024 at 12:01 AM Venezuelan Standard Time (VET), any entity of the Venezuelan government has published results of the July 28, 2024 election purporting to represent 100% of the votes cast, disaggregated to the level of parish (*parroquia*, a subdivision of municipalities).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-12 07:00:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-08-04 11:00:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26898", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/26898", "market_prob": 0.01, "resolve_time": "2024-08-12T07:00:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-12T04:00:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-12T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2024-08-02T15:16:34.668502Z", "publish_time": "2024-08-04T11:00:00Z", "background_info": "On July 28, Venezuela held Presidential elections, but full results have not yet been published by the [National Electoral Council (CNE)](https://www.cne.gob.ve/) as of August 2. Hours after polling stations closed, the head of the CNE proclaimed the incumbent, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, the winner for a third term.\n\nThe opposition and the international community have pointed out irregularities. The CNE [asserted](https://mincyt.gob.ve/nicolas-maduro-gana-las-elecciones-presidenciales/), with 20% of ballots left to count, that Maduro's 7-point lead over the united opposition candidate Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez was \"irreversible\", which is contradictory \u2013 by the CNE's own assertion, there were enough votes left to be counted that Gonz\u00e1lez could still take the lead.\n\nFurthermore, the data published by the CNE reports no more than three numbers: the votes for Maduro (51.2% of the total), the ones for Gonz\u00e1lez (44.2%), and an aggregated figure for \"others\" (4.6%). [Analyses of the data](https://elpais.com/america/2024-08-02/quien-gano-en-venezuela-los-datos-de-la-oposicion-son-mas-verificables-que-los-oficiales.html) show that the numbers correspond *exactly* to those percentages, a result consistent with the percentages being made up and the corresponding vote counts being calculated back from them.\n\nMeanwhile, civil society in the country has been performing an [independent, bottom-up verification of the results](https://resultadosconvzla.com/); reports generated immediately after the election by the voting machines in precincts around the country are digitized and posted online. Aggregation of these vote counts show a 37-point victory for Gonz\u00e1lez over Maduro.\n\nHow will the Chavista president respond? Will he publish a full, disaggregated count of the results?"}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "282b54f6-d5d2-4509-bb96-80dc2e698ce7", "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "body": "This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 16:35:00", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "metaculus", "created_date": "2024-08-06 14:30:00", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27021", "metadata": {"topics": [], "api_url": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/27021", "market_prob": 0.6, "resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:35:00Z", "close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "effected_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.947804Z", "publish_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "background_info": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports)."}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "53955fc7-a7eb-4915-8db9-776a1c742be9", "title": "Iran military response before August 13th midnight Eastern Time?", "body": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between July 30 and August 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a \"military action\" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.\n\nOnly responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-14 14:26:14", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-08-10 14:37:29", "url": "https://manifold.markets/manifest/iran-military-response-before-augus", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-14 14:26:14+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-14 14:26:14+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-14 14:26:14+00:00", "created_time": "2024-08-10 14:37:29+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-14 13:59:06+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/iran-military-response-before-augus", "market_prob": 0.006803963363221597, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between July 30 and August 12, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For the purposes of this market, a \"military action\" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to \"Yes\") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "5bca16ee-29a1-4d51-9ce7-b384a89dc2dd", "title": "Will the Month-over-Month US Core CPI increase by more than 0.1% in July?", "body": "Resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted Core CPI for July 2024 increases by more than 0.1% compared to June 2024.\n\nThe Data for resolution will be https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL and will use the exact (not rounded) value.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-14 13:07:28", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-08-09 19:42:33", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ecoround/will-the-monthovermonth-us-core-cpi", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-14 12:29:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-14 13:07:28+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-14 12:29:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-08-09 19:42:33+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-14 10:37:11+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-monthovermonth-us-core-cpi", "market_prob": 0.52514186005202, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Core CPI ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "for July 2024 increases by more than 0.1% compared to June 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Data for resolution will be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and will use the exact (not rounded) value.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "1612dd0e-41e3-469e-8892-e59a3cf3eb69", "title": "Will USD be worth >= 145 JPY (yen) at close on August 9th, 2024?", "body": "[image]\n\nMarket resolves according to USD/JPY close listed for August 9th, 2024 on Yahoo! Finance.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-10 04:06:22", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-08-06 09:22:02", "url": "https://manifold.markets/knuffa/will-usd-be-worth-145-jpy-yen-by-cl", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-10 04:06:22+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-10 04:06:22+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-10 04:07:29+00:00", "created_time": "2024-08-06 09:22:02+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-09 22:36:25+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-usd-be-worth-145-jpy-yen-by-cl", "market_prob": 0.99, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQOk2zyTRJy.png?alt=media&token=93fe7465-9b18-467b-b059-a47ddfd3cf35", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "USD/JPY close listed for August 9th, 2024 on Yahoo! Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPY%3DX/history/?guccounter=1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "ae69261d-bb9d-4064-b230-c3c630eb15ce", "title": "Will Blake Lively's \"It Ends With Us\" outgross her husband Ryan Reynold's \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" this weekend?", "body": "Resolution \n\nThis market resolves YES \"It Ends with Us\" has a higher (domestic) gross than \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" for the weekend of August 9-11. \n\nSource: The \"weekend\" tab in BoxOfficeMojo, for August 9-11.\n\nI will use the number listed by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically 3-day FSS wekeend + previews).\n\nExample: last weekend, the \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" grossed $96.8M, far ahead of the \"Trap\", which opened to $15.4M.\n\nContext \n\n\"Deadpool & Wolverine\" has been crushing the box office, and is expected to repeat with its 3rd weekend at #1. \n\nThe potential long shot that could dethrone it is \"It Ends With Us\", the adaptation of Colleen Hoover's mega-bestseller, starring (funnily enough) Ryan Reynold's wife, Blake Lively.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-13 15:17:32", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-08-05 02:54:32", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-blake-livelys-it-ends-with-us", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-08 23:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-13 15:17:32+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-13 15:44:29+00:00", "created_time": "2024-08-05 02:54:32+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-08 18:09:24+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-blake-livelys-it-ends-with-us", "market_prob": 0.015346233994776226, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES \"It Ends with Us\" has a higher (domestic) gross than \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" for the weekend of August 9-11. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"weekend\" tab in BoxOfficeMojo, for August 9-11", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2024W32/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the number listed by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically 3-day FSS wekeend + previews).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "last weekend", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2024W31/?ref_=bo_we_nav", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" grossed $96.8M, far ahead of the \"Trap\", which opened to $15.4M.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Deadpool & Wolverine\" has been crushing the box office, and is expected to repeat with its 3rd weekend at #1. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The potential long shot that could dethrone it is \"It Ends With Us\", the adaptation of Colleen Hoover's mega-bestseller, starring (funnily enough) Ryan Reynold's wife, Blake Lively.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "94c807f7-a89d-4742-9d42-4f3b7bb75181", "title": "Will \"Borderlands\" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of B- or above?", "body": "This market resolves YES if \"Borderlands\" (2024) receives a B- CinemaScore or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a C+ or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.\n\n\"Borderlands\" is the adaptation of the hugely popular video game franchise.\n\nHere's a list of CinemaScores for previous video game adaptations.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-10 16:57:20", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-08-03 23:48:09", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-borderlands-2024-receive-a-cin", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-10 16:57:20+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-10 16:57:20+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-10 16:58:28+00:00", "created_time": "2024-08-03 23:48:09+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-10 05:00:51+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-borderlands-2024-receive-a-cin", "market_prob": 0.01000000000000002, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Borderlands\" (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borderlands_(film)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " receives a B- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CinemaScore", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cinemascore.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a C+ or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Borderlands\" is the adaptation of the hugely popular ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "video game franchise", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borderlands_(series)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's a list of CinemaScores", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://br.ign.com/hitman/61069/gallery/cinemascore-what-audiences-think-of-video-game-movies?p=1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for previous video game adaptations.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "3c478526-7b72-4962-a95b-f0ef5af14c9d", "title": "Will Kamala's odds of winning increase over the next week according to Nate Silver's model?", "body": "Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >46.6% on Friday August 9th at 8:40 PM. Resolves NO otherwise.\n\nLink: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model", "resolution_date": "2024-08-10 03:50:41", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-08-03 03:41:33", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dismalscientist/will-kamalas-odds-of-winning-increa", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-10 03:40:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-10 03:50:41+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-10 03:40:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-08-03 03:41:33+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-10 03:38:28+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-kamalas-odds-of-winning-increa", "market_prob": 0.9898385053050152, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >46.6% on Friday August 9th at 8:40 PM. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "39ab4687-264c-4334-92e2-f5f183cce359", "title": "Will Wesley So beat Hans Niemann in Speed Chess Championship?", "body": "The match will be played on 7th of August, 18:00 GMT.\n\nhttps://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games\n\nIf match is cancelled, it resolves N/A.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-08 04:13:50", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-08-01 19:48:54", "url": "https://manifold.markets/weezing/will-wesley-so-beat-hans-niemann-in", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-07 23:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-08 04:13:50+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-07 23:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-08-01 19:48:54+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-07 22:32:44+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-wesley-so-beat-hans-niemann-in", "market_prob": 0.03072083982212822, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The match will be played on 7th of August, 18:00 GMT.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a0acb471-d28e-4438-9a18-a9624444fe07", "title": "Will M. Night Shyamalan's \"Trap\" (2024) gross >$20 million during its (domestic) opening weekend?", "body": "Source: The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for \"Trap\" (2024).\n\nI will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews). \n\nFor example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for the M. Night Shyamalan's \"Old\" was $$16,854,735. This is the equivalent number I will use.\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/hJiPAJKjUVg)", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 03:33:03", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-31 22:59:59", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-m-night-shyamalans-trap-2024-g", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-04 19:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-06 03:33:03+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-04 19:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-31 22:59:59+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-04 19:31:04+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-m-night-shyamalans-trap-2024-g", "market_prob": 0.027375304325479112, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt12584954/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "BoxOfficeMojo for \"Trap\" (2024).", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt26753003/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "M. Night Shyamalan's \"Old\" was $$16,854,735", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2097710593/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/hJiPAJKjUVg", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "496ac594-231e-45cd-b348-d4afb9f2b6c8", "title": "Will Maria Corina Machado be imprisoned before Friday?", "body": "This market will resolve YES if the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is imprisoned before Friday August, 3rd of 2024 at 00:00 VET", "resolution_date": "2024-08-03 14:02:15", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-29 21:19:02", "url": "https://manifold.markets/frag/will-maria-corina-machado-be-impris", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-03 14:02:15+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-03 14:02:15+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-03 14:02:15+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-29 21:19:02+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-02 09:02:19+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-maria-corina-machado-be-impris", "market_prob": 0.014968723253672135, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is imprisoned before Friday August, 3rd of 2024 at 00:00 VET", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "18dd9ff6-0656-49f8-8914-a1b760275375", "title": "Will \"House of the Dragon\" S2E8 (season finale) be rated >8.5 on IMDB, 2 days after release?", "body": "Resolution\n\n\"House of the Dragon\" S2E8 (title TBA) IMDB link\n\nThis market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (August 6th), at noon PT.\n\nThis market closes 90 minutes after the episode premieres.\n\nI will use the precision listed by IMDB (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. \n\nContext\n\nHere are the current IMDB ratings for HotD:\n\nSeason 1\n\nE1: 8.7\n\nE2: 8.3\n\nE3: 8.7\n\nE4: 8.4\n\nE5: 8.5\n\nE6: 8.0\n\nE7: 9.1\n\nE8: 9.3\n\nE9: 8.7\n\nE10: 9.2\n\nSeason 2\n\nE1: 8.4\n\nE2: 8.4\n\nE3: 7.9\n\nE4: 9.6\n\nE5: 7.6\n\nE6: 6.1\n\nE7: ???", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 19:06:54", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-28 20:16:10", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e8-title", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-05 02:30:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-06 19:06:54+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-06 19:51:39+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-28 20:16:10+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-05 02:27:23+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e8-title", "market_prob": 0.5899999999999999, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}, {"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://m.imdb.com/title/tt27160121/?ref_=tt_ep_nx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "S2E8 (title TBA) IMDB link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://m.imdb.com/title/tt27160121/?ref_=tt_ep_nx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (August 6th), at noon PT.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 90 minutes after the episode premieres.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the precision listed by IMDB (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the current IMDB ratings for HotD:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 8.5", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: 8.0", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E7: 9.1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E8: 9.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E9: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E10: 9.2", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 7.9", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 9.6", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 7.6", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: 6.1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E7: ???", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "f9f46ce0-20e0-4c9f-a2f9-ecdf7a6ba9cc", "title": "Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 44 and 45?", "body": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.\n\n\u201cYES\u201d = \u201cYes, there will be a break after chapter 44\u201d\n\n\u201cNO\u201d = \u201cNo, there will not be a break after chapter 44\u201d\n\nPlan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 03:33:04", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-28 20:04:09", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dwax/will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-dk4wd64du4", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-05 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-06 03:33:04+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-05 06:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-28 20:04:09+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-29 07:28:25+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-dk4wd64du4", "market_prob": 0.20291581696356092, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cYES\u201d = \u201cYes, there will be a break after chapter 44\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cNO\u201d = \u201cNo, there will not be a break after chapter 44\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "203273ec-cb96-455c-9506-978e5dd22828", "title": "Will Mathieu van der Poel finish ahead of Wout van Aert in the Men's Olympic Road Race in Paris?", "body": "This market resolves to YES if Mathieu van der Poel ranks higher than Wout van Aert. If both do not finish, the one who gives up first is ranked lower. If both give up due to the same crash or do not start, this market resolves 50%/50%.\n\nThis market will close when the Men's Olympic Road Race starts on August 3rd at 11:00 a.m. and will resolve after the race.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-04 19:49:33", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-28 18:52:04", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lion/will-mathieu-van-der-poel-finish-ah", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-03 09:00:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-04 19:49:33+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-03 09:00:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-28 18:52:04+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-03 08:49:56+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-mathieu-van-der-poel-finish-ah", "market_prob": 0.6407173253509326, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if Mathieu van der Poel ranks higher than Wout van Aert. If both do not finish, the one who gives up first is ranked lower. If both give up due to the same crash or do not start, this market resolves 50%/50%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close when the Men's Olympic Road Race starts on August 3rd at 11:00 a.m. and will resolve after the race.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "0527b588-c3fd-4855-accf-d6245bde0f0f", "title": "Will M. Night Shyamalan's \"Trap\" (2024) receive a CinemaScore of B or above?", "body": "This market resolves YES if \"Trap\" (2024) receives a B CinemaScore or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a B- or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.\n\nContext: \n\n\"Trap\" is the next film directed by the legendary M. Night Shyamalan (with a great trailer).\n\nHere are the CinemaScores for some of his recent films:\n\n\"Split\" - B+\n\n\"Glass\" - B\n\n\"Old\" - C+\n\n\"Knock at the Cabin\" - C\n\nYou can search the CinemaScore website for more examples.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-03 04:32:22", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-27 19:13:18", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-m-night-shyamalans-trap-2024-r", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-03 04:32:22+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-03 04:32:22+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-03 04:32:48+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-27 19:13:18+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-03 04:32:16+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-m-night-shyamalans-trap-2024-r", "market_prob": 0.01085350780635585, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if \"Trap\" (2024) receives a B ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CinemaScore", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cinemascore.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or higher, and it resolves NO if it receives a B- or lower. If for some reason a CinemaScore is not reported, this resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Trap\" is the next film directed by the legendary M. Night Shyamalan (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "with a great trailer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJiPAJKjUVg", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the CinemaScores for some of his recent films:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Split\" - B+", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Glass\" - B", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Old\" - C+", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Knock at the Cabin\" - C", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can search the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CinemaScore website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cinemascore.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for more examples.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "7e509ae4-cf70-48d3-b42c-a48711dc2118", "title": "Will Sha'Carri Richardson win a gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games?\ud83e\udd47\ud83c\udfc3\u200d\u2640\ufe0f[LIQUIDITY ADDED]", "body": "Resolves YES if Sha\u2019Carri Richardson wins gold in any event.\n\n\u201cTrack and field will start on Thursday, Aug. 1, and conclude on Sunday, Aug. 11. Sha'Carri Richardson will compete on the following days:\n\nWomen's 100m: Friday, Aug. 2, to Saturday, Aug. 3\n\nWomen's 4x100m Relay (lineups not yet announced): Thursday, Aug. 8, to Friday, Aug. 9\u201d\n\nhttps://www.nbcolympics.com/news/how-watch-shacarri-richardson-2024-paris-olympics\n\n[image]", "resolution_date": "2024-08-10 01:22:42", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-27 16:55:05", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ooah0/will-shacarri-richardson-win-a-gold", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-10 01:22:42+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-10 01:22:42+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-10 01:22:42+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-27 16:55:05+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-09 19:41:34+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-shacarri-richardson-win-a-gold", "market_prob": 0.99, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Sha\u2019Carri Richardson wins gold in any event.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cTrack and field will start on Thursday, Aug. 1, and conclude on Sunday, Aug. 11. Sha'Carri Richardson will compete on the following days:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Women's 100m: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Friday, Aug. 2, to Saturday, Aug. 3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Women's 4x100m Relay (lineups not yet announced): ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Thursday, Aug. 8, to Friday, Aug. 9\u201d", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nbcolympics.com/news/how-watch-shacarri-richardson-2024-paris-olympics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcolympics.com/news/how-watch-shacarri-richardson-2024-paris-olympics", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "", "src": "https://media2.giphy.com/media/iVjiqJjplSmKi0kzE1/giphy.gif?cid=5ff1f1cav2xg7ehnyyocr3yk2cgmt6dl0zywvgsdbyqspmjr&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "114120a7-b97e-4594-9ce9-969623fd2cc7", "title": "Will JD Vance say \"Couch\" before August?", "body": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if J.D. Vance publicly mentions the word \"Couch\" between July 25, 5:30 PM ET and July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nPluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA 'mention' includes the following:\n\n-A verbal usage of the word \"Couch\".\n-Any written usage of the word \"Couch\" published through J.D. Vance's social media or other official communication channels regardless of capitalization (@JDVance would qualify however @SenVancePress will not count).\n\nVideos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 02:23:18", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-26 07:08:29", "url": "https://manifold.markets/niels/will-jd-vance-say-couch-before-augu", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-01 02:23:18+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-01 02:23:18+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-01 02:23:18+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-26 07:08:29+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-01 02:22:55+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-jd-vance-say-couch-before-augu", "market_prob": 0.99, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if J.D. Vance publicly mentions the word \"Couch\" between July 25, 5:30 PM ET and July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A 'mention' includes the following:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-A verbal usage of the word \"Couch\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-Any written usage of the word \"Couch\" published through J.D. Vance's social media or other official communication channels regardless of capitalization (@JDVance would qualify however @SenVancePress will not count).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "a8dccc19-d645-4989-b6ba-9b52b183dea2", "title": "Will Kamala Harris\u2019 VP Pick be Kelly or Shapiro (YES), or neither of them (NO)?", "body": "The two favorites for Kamala\u2019s running mate are currently Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro. It is reported, Kamala will choose before August 7th.\n\nThis market resolves YES if/when Kamala Harris announces her pick for running mate being either Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro.\n\nThis market resolves NO if/when Kamala Harris announces anyone else being her running mate.\n\nI will wait until the pick is confirmed by Kamala herself to resolve this.\n\ncomment if you have any questions or news \ud83d\udc99", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 13:16:05", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-25 20:22:42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pluffasmr/will-kamala-harris-vp-pick-be-eithe", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-06 13:15:52+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-06 13:16:05+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-06 13:19:14+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-25 20:22:42+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-06 13:11:09+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-kamala-harris-vp-pick-be-eithe", "market_prob": 0.0086917857570478, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "two favorites", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " for Kamala\u2019s running mate are currently ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". It is reported, Kamala will choose before August 7th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if/when Kamala Harris announces her pick for running mate being either Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO if/when Kamala Harris announces anyone else being her running mate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will wait until the pick is confirmed by Kamala herself to resolve this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "comment if you have any questions or news \ud83d\udc99", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "1d43323b-e282-4763-920b-88371aa1b4b2", "title": "Will Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) close sub $100 per share by 7/31?", "body": "This market resolves to YES if NVDA closes below 100$ on any day before 7/31.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-31 23:40:30", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-25 20:02:42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/authbyte/will-nvidia-nasdaqnvda-close-sub-10", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-31 23:40:30+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-31 23:40:30+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-31 23:40:30+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-25 20:02:42+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-31 21:08:10+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-nvidia-nasdaqnvda-close-sub-10", "market_prob": 0.042905197881796794, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if NVDA closes below 100$ on any day before 7/31.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "0dd24ad8-4762-4837-9c3c-053abbadb020", "title": "[Metaculus] Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?", "body": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24034/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question resolves as Yes if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or credible reports:\n\nThe Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).\n\nThe Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\nThe PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\nThe PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.\n\nIf there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as No.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-02 10:23:37", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-25 12:41:40", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-diplomatic-expulsion-fihxmqhsyq", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-02 10:23:37+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-02 10:23:37+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-02 10:23:37+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-25 12:41:40+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-02 07:58:02+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/metaculus-will-diplomatic-expulsion-fihxmqhsyq", "market_prob": 0.010000679731641668, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24034/philippines-expels-chinese-diplomats-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24034/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "credible reports", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24034/philippines-expels-chinese-diplomats-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "12f3f559-3ca9-4dae-ac0f-9da53ef20421", "title": "Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 173 and 174?", "body": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.\n\n\u201cYES\u201d = \u201cYes, there will be a break after chapter 173\u201d\n\n\u201cNO\u201d = \u201cNo, there will not be a break after chapter 173\u201d\n\nPlan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 20:58:55", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-25 02:08:35", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dwax/will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-70wp21xxh9", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-06 20:58:55+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-06 20:58:55+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-06 20:58:55+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-25 02:08:35+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-06 18:32:10+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-70wp21xxh9", "market_prob": 0.06261059866979932, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cYES\u201d = \u201cYes, there will be a break after chapter 173\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cNO\u201d = \u201cNo, there will not be a break after chapter 173\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "7dff9b6b-1254-491d-b259-528f78553db6", "title": "Kamala president by Friday?", "body": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Vice President Kamala Harris is formally designated as President or Acting President of the United States at any point before July 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nResolver", "resolution_date": "2024-07-28 19:17:15", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-23 22:37:33", "url": "https://manifold.markets/niels/kamala-president-by-friday", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-27 21:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-28 19:17:15+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-28 19:20:10+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-23 22:37:33+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-28 19:20:10+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/kamala-president-by-friday", "market_prob": 0.010185063400149947, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Vice President Kamala Harris is formally designated as President or Acting President of the United States at any point before July 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolver", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "9896de72-60c0-4e9f-b3dd-7ac79eb28227", "title": "Will Joe Biden die before Saturday?", "body": "Resolves YES if there is an official announcement of Joe Biden's death before market close at the end of Friday, July 26th. \n\nOtherwise, resolves NO.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-27 15:19:17", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-23 18:21:15", "url": "https://manifold.markets/joshua/will-joe-biden-die-before-saturday", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-27 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-27 15:19:17+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-27 15:55:28+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-23 18:21:15+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-26 15:55:53+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-joe-biden-die-before-saturday", "market_prob": 0.0056280432686752575, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is an official announcement of Joe Biden's death before market close at the end of Friday, July 26th. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a632282a-7cea-4808-a148-68c0f901fb66", "title": "Will Deadpool & Wolverine have biggest opening weekend ever for R-rated movie? [ahead of Deadpool I & II, It, Joker]", "body": "Analysts are projecting a huge opening weekend for \"Deadpool x Wolverine\" crossover movie.\nhttps://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-set-record-360m-global-opening-weekend-biggest-r-rated-debut\n\n\"\"\"\n\nThe film, directed by Shawn Levy and starring Ryan Reynolds, is projected to earn between $340 million and $360 million globally in its opening weekend. This would mark the biggest opening weekend ever for an R-rated movie. Domestically, the film is expected to debut with $160 million to $170 million, making it the biggest R-rated opening of all-time.\n\n\"\"\"\n\n[image]The record for biggest opening weekend for an R-rated movie is the original Deadpool at $284.5M ($152.2M domestic).\n\nhttps://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-deadpool-makes-history-865143/\n\n[image]\nWill the new movie top these marks? It will probably be close...\n\nIt will certainly play at more theaters... Deadpool was a smash hit at the time, and a bit surprising.\n\nSince BoxOfficeMojo is a bit weird on reporting international opening weekends -- it provides the raw numbers but aggregates them weirdly -- we will wait for Hollywood Reporter to let us know what the weekend opening was.\n\nTo clarify on resolution...\n-> this market will resolve YES if Deadpool x Wolverine grosses more than $284.5M globally this opening weekend according to reports\n-> AND the Hollywood Reporter (or equivalent publication) reports it as the record for an R-rated movie release\n\nIn other words the BoxOfficeMojo numbers should be seen as unofficial until there's confirmation in the Hollywood press. And the number we shoot for is >$284.5M internationally... this weekend", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 18:06:39", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-23 17:28:16", "url": "https://manifold.markets/moscow25/will-deadpool-wolverine-have-bigges", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-29 18:06:39+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-29 18:06:39+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-29 18:07:08+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-23 17:28:16+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-29 15:19:50+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-deadpool-wolverine-have-bigges", "market_prob": 0.9898613261709021, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Analysts are projecting a huge opening weekend for \"Deadpool x Wolverine\" crossover movie.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-set-record-360m-global-opening-weekend-biggest-r-rated-debut", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-set-record-360m-global-opening-weekend-biggest-r-rated-debut", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"\"\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The film, directed by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Shawn Levy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/per/shawn-levy", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and starring ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Ryan Reynolds", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepnewz.com/entity/per/ryan-reynolds", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", is projected to earn between $340 million and $360 million globally in its opening weekend. This would mark the biggest opening weekend ever for an R-rated movie. Domestically, the film is expected to debut with $160 million to $170 million, making it the biggest R-rated opening of all-time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"\"\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaQIOs4QmyL.png?alt=media&token=95842175-d6c4-4115-8844-3ac9c2604e7d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The record for biggest opening weekend for an R-rated movie is the original Deadpool at $284.5M ($152.2M domestic).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-deadpool-makes-history-865143/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-deadpool-makes-history-865143/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3LrWWAXtxW.png?alt=media&token=cbbfaf6b-063b-45dd-854d-b6947e245453", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will the new movie top these marks? It will probably be close...", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It will certainly play at more theaters... Deadpool was a smash hit at the time, and a bit surprising.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since BoxOfficeMojo is a bit weird on reporting international opening weekends -- it provides the raw numbers but aggregates them weirdly -- we will wait for Hollywood Reporter to let us know what the weekend opening was.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To clarify on resolution...", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-> this market will resolve YES if Deadpool x Wolverine grosses more than $284.5M globally this opening weekend according to reports", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "-> AND the Hollywood Reporter (or equivalent publication) reports it as the record for an R-rated movie release", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In other words the BoxOfficeMojo numbers should be seen as unofficial until there's confirmation in the Hollywood press. And the number we shoot for is >$284.5M internationally... ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this weekend", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "97032302-eb62-4fd7-9f70-5cd22385409c", "title": "Will Elon Musk show up at the Bitcoin Nashville 2024?", "body": "This market will resolve YES, if Elon Musk becomes a guest on the official stage of the Bitcoin Nashville 2024, one of the largest Bitcoin conferences, taking place on July 25-27, 2024.\n\n[image]", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 12:42:14", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-23 12:19:25", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itstomekk/will-elon-musk-show-up-at-the-bitco", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-28 21:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-29 12:42:14+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-28 21:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-23 12:19:25+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-28 19:28:31+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-elon-musk-show-up-at-the-bitco", "market_prob": 0.011119273962596914, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES, if Elon Musk becomes a guest on the official stage of the Bitcoin Nashville 2024, one of the largest Bitcoin conferences, taking place on July 25-27, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FgP5ROv05t_.png?alt=media&token=612bff26-bbd5-4a9f-8c86-826fe875b18a", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "95b4f020-2c65-4690-bea6-34094df41435", "title": "Will Joe Biden still be president by the end of July?", "body": "This market will resolve yes if at 11:59 pm on July 31st 2024 if Joe Biden is still officially president of the United States.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 14:50:29", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-22 20:33:34", "url": "https://manifold.markets/michaeldarmousseh/will-joe-biden-still-be-president-b", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-01 04:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-01 14:50:29+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-01 04:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-22 20:33:34+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-01 04:08:32+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-joe-biden-still-be-president-b", "market_prob": 0.99, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve yes if at 11:59 pm on July 31st 2024 if Joe Biden is still officially president of the United States.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "e2c90d2d-6a13-4a49-bd85-7ec2acbfdfb9", "title": "Will \"House of the Dragon\" S2E7 (title TBA) be rated >8.5 on IMDB, 2 days after release?", "body": "Resolution\n\n\"House of the Dragon\" S2E7 (title TBA) IMDB link\n\nThis market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (July 30th), at noon PT.\n\nThis market closes 90 minutes after the episode premieres.\n\nI will use the precision listed by IMDB (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. \n\nContext\n\nHere are the current IMDB ratings for HotD:\n\nSeason 1\n\nE1: 8.7\n\nE2: 8.3\n\nE3: 8.7\n\nE4: 8.4\n\nE5: 8.5\n\nE6: 8.0\n\nE7: 9.1\n\nE8: 9.3\n\nE9: 8.7\n\nE10: 9.2\n\nSeason 2\n\nE1: 8.4\n\nE2: 8.4\n\nE3: 7.9\n\nE4: 9.6\n\nE5: 7.6\n\nE6: ???", "resolution_date": "2024-07-30 19:04:59", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-22 04:31:42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e7-title", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-29 02:30:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-30 19:04:59+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-30 19:40:02+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-22 04:31:42+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-28 22:42:27+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-house-of-the-dragon-s2e7-title", "market_prob": 0.3949144497561802, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"House of the Dragon\" S2E7 (title TBA) IMDB link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "spoiler"}, {"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27179981/?ref_=tt_ep_nx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (July 30th), at noon PT.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 90 minutes after the episode premieres.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the precision listed by IMDB (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the current IMDB ratings for HotD:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 8.5", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: 8.0", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E7: 9.1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E8: 9.3", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E9: 8.7", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E10: 9.2", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Season 2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E1: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E2: 8.4", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E3: 7.9", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E4: 9.6", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E5: 7.6", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "E6: ???", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "dd07dc6b-7ddf-46f8-a9b8-95d04813c143", "title": "Will Sifan Hassan win a medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "body": "Resolves YES if Sifan Hassan wins any medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics, NO otherwise", "resolution_date": "2024-08-05 20:21:45", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-21 03:32:50", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-sifan-hassan-win-a-medal-at-th", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-05 20:21:45+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-05 20:21:45+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-05 20:21:45+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-21 03:32:50+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-05 20:21:32+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-sifan-hassan-win-a-medal-at-th", "market_prob": 0.8245330057957807, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Sifan Hassan wins any medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics, NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "6b298403-4ba2-4528-806e-2fc2e98eff5e", "title": "Will the Berkeley City Council pass the Missing Middle ordinance at its July 23 meeting?", "body": "More information: https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/the-big-zoning-battle-of-berkeley\n\nMust be at the July 23 meeting, resolves YES even if they pass it after midnight (on July 24), resolves YES if they water down the ordinance before passing, resolves NO if they continue the vote to a future meeting, or vote NO on the proposed ordinance.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-24 22:52:35", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-19 21:48:47", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kevinburke/will-the-berkeley-city-council-pass", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-24 22:52:35+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-24 22:52:35+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-24 22:52:35+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-19 21:48:47+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-24 22:52:29+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-berkeley-city-council-pass", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000007, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "More information: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/the-big-zoning-battle-of-berkeley", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/the-big-zoning-battle-of-berkeley", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Must be at the July 23 meeting, resolves YES even if they pass it after midnight (on July 24), resolves YES if they water down the ordinance before passing, resolves NO if they continue the vote to a future meeting, or vote NO on the proposed ordinance.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "5693ee7a-ba34-4a2c-ba70-dc442d60a269", "title": "[Metaculus] Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than th...\"The Wolverine\" combined?", "body": "Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than that of \"Deadpool\" and \"The Wolverine\" combined?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25850/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question resolves as Yes if the domestic box office opening for the Deadpool & Wolverine reported by Boxofficemojo on the movie's page is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for Deadpool (2016) and The Wolverine (2013): $132,434,639 + $53,113,752.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 15:53:33", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-19 15:38:11", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-the-domestic-box-off", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-29 15:53:33+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-29 15:53:33+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-29 15:53:33+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-19 15:38:11+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-28 16:20:03+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/metaculus-will-the-domestic-box-off", "market_prob": 0.9898520658668516, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than that of \"Deadpool\" and \"The Wolverine\" combined?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25850/deadpool--wolverine-domestic-opening/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25850/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the domestic box office opening for the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadpool & Wolverine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " reported by Boxofficemojo on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "movie's page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadpool", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (2016) and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Wolverine", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (2013): $132,434,639 + $53,113,752.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25850/deadpool--wolverine-domestic-opening/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "8dd231f6-a69e-48d5-8b65-ba0fac438909", "title": "[Metaculus] Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage th...D, before August 3, 2024?", "body": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25791/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question resolves as Yes if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the .com generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as No.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-05 18:29:42", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-19 15:38:09", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-the-us-government-en", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-04 16:00:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-05 18:29:42+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-04 16:00:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-19 15:38:09+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-04 15:32:30+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/metaculus-will-the-us-government-en", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000023, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25791/will-verisigns-com-monopoly-start-to-fade/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25791/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": ".com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25791/will-verisigns-com-monopoly-start-to-fade/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "c4a44a46-fa2c-4881-b885-9d38288c7fcc", "title": "Will Yuki Tsunoda outscore Daniel Ricciardo at the 2024 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix?", "body": "Resolves YES if Yuki Tsunoda outscores Daniel Ricciardo over the whole weekend, including sprint races. Resolves NO if they score the same non-zero number of points. If neither driver scores, resolves based on classification order in the main race.\n\n Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-28 14:36:26", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-18 18:06:02", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kevinburke/will-yuki-tsunoda-outscore-daniel-r-btfaufrm8l", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-28 14:36:26+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-28 14:36:26+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-28 14:36:26+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-18 18:06:02+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-28 14:13:19+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-yuki-tsunoda-outscore-daniel-r-btfaufrm8l", "market_prob": 0.009999999999999972, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Yuki Tsunoda outscores Daniel Ricciardo over the whole weekend, including sprint races. Resolves NO if they score the same non-zero number of points. If neither driver scores, resolves based on classification order in the main race.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Markets are resolved ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "according to these rules", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", which are subject to change.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "ce267375-bc59-4593-8b3a-6490f40e7b1a", "title": "Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1122 of One Piece on August 1st?", "body": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece\n\nI am basing this off of GMT-7 time zone for July 18th If they release chapter 1122 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as \u201cYES.\u201d Anything else will resolve as \u201cNO.\u201d\n\nTCB Scans usually posts the chapter on the Thursday before official release. 1121. 1120, 1119, 1118, 1117, 1116 and 1115 were Thursdays. 1114 was a Thursday, May 9th. 1113 was a Friday, April 25th. 1112 was a Friday, April 19. 1111 will be uploaded March 22, a Friday. 1110 was uploaded March 15th, a Friday. 1109 was uploaded March 1, a Friday. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15, both Thursdays. \n\nTCB has started posting on Fridays after the twitter account ban. Unknown if this shall continue, thought I\u2019d put the info here for investors.\n\nI do not answer my own questions.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-02 17:55:48", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-18 12:24:58", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dwax/will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1122", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-02 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-02 17:55:48+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-02 06:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-18 12:24:58+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-02 00:36:03+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1122", "market_prob": 0.14, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/shortfuse-one-piece", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am basing this off of GMT-7 time zone for July 18th If they release chapter 1122 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as \u201cYES.\u201d Anything else will resolve as \u201cNO.\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB Scans ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "usually", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " posts the chapter on the Thursday before official release. 1121. 1120, 1119, 1118, 1117, 1116 and 1115 were Thursdays. 1114 was a Thursday, May 9th. 1113 was a Friday, April 25th. 1112 was a Friday, April 19. 1111 will be uploaded March 22, a Friday. 1110 was uploaded March 15th, a Friday. 1109 was uploaded March 1, a Friday. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15, both Thursdays. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TCB has started posting on Fridays after the twitter account ban. Unknown if this shall continue, thought I\u2019d put the info here for investors.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not answer my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "a6e04629-cc9a-4269-94dc-3c0bde258728", "title": "Will Disney announce a new Moana ride for Magic Kingdon at D23 2024?", "body": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces a new Moana-themed ride for the Magic Kingdom park in Florida at or before the D23 convention in August 2024. It will resolve NO if it is discussed in a \"spitballing ideas\" sense similar to the way that some attractions were discussed at the previous D23. It will resolve NO if a Moana ride is announced for a different theme park in Florida or elsewhere. Betting closes on August 8, the day before the convention. It will be resolved after the convention.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-14 15:03:28", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-16 22:58:09", "url": "https://manifold.markets/twirlnhurl/will-disney-announce-a-new-moana-ri", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-09 03:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-14 15:03:28+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-09 03:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-16 22:58:09+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-09 02:54:54+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-disney-announce-a-new-moana-ri", "market_prob": 0.4215197948418893, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces a new Moana-themed ride for the Magic Kingdom park in Florida at or before the D23 convention in August 2024. It will resolve NO if it is discussed in a \"spitballing ideas\" sense similar to the way that some attractions were discussed at the previous D23. It will resolve NO if a Moana ride is announced for a different theme park in Florida or elsewhere. Betting closes on August 8, the day before the convention. It will be resolved after the convention. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "b0d3aeb3-30db-46fc-b377-307ea461a662", "title": "Will Disney announce a new night parade for the Magic Kingdom park at or before D23 2024?", "body": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces at or before D23 2024 a new night time parade at Magic Kingdom in Walt Disney World in Florida. It will be resolved NO if no new night time parade is announced between now and the end of the convention. It will also resolve NO if Disney announces that an existing parade such as the Main Street Electrical Parade or Paint the Night is moving to Florida. This will close August 8 and will resolve at the end of the convention (unless it is announced prior to the convention, in which case it will close as soon as I can after the announcement).", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 11:53:12", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-16 22:47:57", "url": "https://manifold.markets/twirlnhurl/will-disney-announce-a-new-night-pa", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-09 03:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-11 11:53:12+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-09 03:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-16 22:47:57+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-08 19:32:32+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-disney-announce-a-new-night-pa", "market_prob": 0.49556043889125123, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces at or before D23 2024 a new night time parade at Magic Kingdom in Walt Disney World in Florida. It will be resolved NO if no new night time parade is announced between now and the end of the convention. It will also resolve NO if Disney announces that an existing parade such as the Main Street Electrical Parade or Paint the Night is moving to Florida. This will close August 8 and will resolve at the end of the convention (unless it is announced prior to the convention, in which case it will close as soon as I can after the announcement). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "36d31ae4-49db-4cc0-844b-583504fa8df6", "title": "Will 538 Project Biden as the favorite on Friday?", "body": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. This market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50.\n\nThe resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 19 as soon as datapoints for July 20 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 20 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 19 are available by July 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 19.\n\nPlease note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. \"Trump 57 times out of 100\"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-22 16:51:19", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-16 22:21:51", "url": "https://manifold.markets/manifest/will-538-project-biden-as-the-favor", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-22 16:51:19+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-22 16:51:19+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-22 16:51:19+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-16 22:21:51+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-20 02:02:08+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-538-project-biden-as-the-favor", "market_prob": 0.009999999999999988, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Joe Biden has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Donald Trump according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. This market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d if Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning the US presidential election than Joe Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast for the day of July 19, 2024. If Biden and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 19 as soon as datapoints for July 20 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 20 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 19 are available by July 22, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 19.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Please note the resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. \"Trump 57 times out of 100\"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "c89b1d25-db32-4530-b18e-ca9571b5fb20", "title": "Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic VP?", "body": "If Kamala Harris is nominated as the Democratic VP, this market will resolve to yes. If someone else is selected as VP, this market will resolve to no. If the VP is changed for any reason after the initial nomination, that will not change the resolution of this market. The market can resolve immediately after the nomination.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-10 17:24:20", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-16 20:07:42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/destiny3a152/will-kamala-harris-be-the-democrati-t2kxjku3g8", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-10 17:24:20+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-10 17:24:20+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-10 17:24:20+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-16 20:07:42+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-26 21:03:46+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-kamala-harris-be-the-democrati-t2kxjku3g8", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000016, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Kamala Harris is nominated as the Democratic VP, this market will resolve to yes. If someone else is selected as VP, this market will resolve to no. If the VP is changed for any reason after the initial nomination, that will not change the resolution of this market. The market can resolve immediately after the nomination.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "49a0f79f-f0c4-4eb9-8513-18c740e90bed", "title": "Will at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the plan to virtually nominate Biden early?", "body": "Context from Politico:\n\nDozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party\u2019s effort to seal President Joe Biden\u2019s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.\n\nA drafted letter, circulated by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and obtained by POLITICO, offers the first public signal from Democrats since the weekend\u2019s attempted assassination on former President Donald Trump that scores of their own members remain deeply unsettled about the future of Biden\u2019s candidacy.\n\n\u201cIt\u2019s a really bad move by the DNC. Somebody thinks it\u2019s a clever way to lock down debate and I guess by dint of sheer force, achieve unity, but it doesn\u2019t work that way,\u201d Huffman said in an interview. He declined to confirm the existence of a letter.\n\nThis market resolves YES if a public letter opposing the early nomination plan is signed by at least 20 House Members or Senators who caucus with the Democratic Party before market close at the end of Sunday, July 21st. \n\nMultiple such letters with a combined total of 20 lawmaker's signatures would also be sufficient to resolve this market to YES. \n\nIf these criteria are not met by market close, this market resolves NO.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 22:21:43", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-16 17:11:44", "url": "https://manifold.markets/manifoldpolitics/will-at-least-20-housesenate-democr", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-22 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-23 22:21:43+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-22 06:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-16 17:11:44+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-22 06:38:58+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-at-least-20-housesenate-democr", "market_prob": 0.009764270290671909, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context from Politico:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/16/house-dems-biden-nomination-00168645", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party\u2019s effort to seal President Joe Biden\u2019s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A drafted letter, circulated by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and obtained by POLITICO, offers the first public signal from Democrats since the weekend\u2019s attempted assassination on former President Donald Trump that scores of their own members remain deeply unsettled about the future of Biden\u2019s candidacy.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cIt\u2019s a really bad move by the DNC. Somebody thinks it\u2019s a clever way to lock down debate and I guess by dint of sheer force, achieve unity, but it doesn\u2019t work that way,\u201d Huffman said in an interview. He declined to confirm the existence of a letter.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if a public letter opposing the early nomination plan is signed by at least 20 House Members or Senators who caucus with the Democratic Party before market close at the end of Sunday, July 21st. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Multiple such letters with a combined total of 20 lawmaker's signatures would also be sufficient to resolve this market to YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If these criteria are not met by market close, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "8d99e3c0-02f1-4693-a4d2-1e8374cbf3e4", "title": "Will my cat return to my home if I allow them to roam outside according to their own volition?", "body": "I have recently moved with an outdoor cat. And it has been inside for two weeks now. Tomorrow I will let it outside.\n\nWIll it come home?`\n\nResolves YES if it comes home within twelve hours of being let out. Resolves NO if it does not and I have to go bring it back. Resolves N/A in the unfortunate event that it dies.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-21 08:52:50", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-16 14:08:50", "url": "https://manifold.markets/hmys/will-my-cat-return-to-my-home-if-i", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-21 08:52:50+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-21 08:52:50+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-21 17:51:43+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-16 14:08:50+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-18 00:47:59+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-my-cat-return-to-my-home-if-i", "market_prob": 0.8700000000000001, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have recently moved with an outdoor cat. And it has been inside for two weeks now. Tomorrow I will let it outside.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WIll it come home?`", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if it comes home within twelve hours of being let out. Resolves NO if it does not and I have to go bring it back. Resolves N/A in the unfortunate event that it dies.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "747abba1-8d4a-42d3-8f12-012f2954f630", "title": "Will the United States win gold in both Men's and Women's 5v5 basketball at the Paris Olympics", "body": "Resolves Yes if Team USA wins both gold medals. Resolves no if either the men's or women's team places anywhere other than gold.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-11 15:25:24", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-16 12:48:48", "url": "https://manifold.markets/davidsavage/will-the-united-states-win-gold-in", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-11 15:25:24+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-11 15:25:24+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-11 15:25:24+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-16 12:48:48+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-11 15:22:26+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-united-states-win-gold-in", "market_prob": 0.9897567140945355, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Team USA wins both gold medals. Resolves no if either the men's or women's team places anywhere other than gold.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "c4301e12-0e85-4bd2-939b-9cdcedbec2f1", "title": "Will 10 or more Democratic Senators call for Biden to drop out before July 20?", "body": "Resolution source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/biden-drop-out-democrats.html\n\nIf at any point before midnight July 20 Central Time, it shows 10 or more Dem Senators, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-20 07:09:44", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-15 23:00:23", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dialethia/will-10-or-more-democratic-senators", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-20 07:09:44+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-20 07:09:44+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-20 07:09:44+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-15 23:00:23+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-20 07:08:20+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-10-or-more-democratic-senators", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000002, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/biden-drop-out-democrats.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/biden-drop-out-democrats.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If at any point before midnight July 20 Central Time, it shows 10 or more Dem Senators, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "902eab99-a946-4302-93e7-256186adce70", "title": "H2H - Saratoga July 17th:  Will CAP FERRAT finish in front of BOSSY JEANS in the New York Stallion Series Stakes?", "body": "The head-to-head (H2H) horse racing  market closes at the scheduled post time.\n\n \n\nIf there is a dead heat the market resolves to NO.  If either horse scratches the market also resolves to NO.\n\n\nThe market will be resolved with results published at https://www.equibase.com/", "resolution_date": "2024-07-18 20:02:03", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-14 23:47:33", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/h2h-saratoga-july-17th-will-cap-fer", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-18 20:01:53+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-18 20:02:03+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-18 20:01:53+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-14 23:47:33+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-17 21:22:29+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/h2h-saratoga-july-17th-will-cap-fer", "market_prob": 0.2356234488384438, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The head-to-head (H2H) horse racing  market closes at the scheduled post time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a dead heat the market resolves to NO.  If either horse scratches the market also resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.equibase.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.equibase.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "49bae6e2-b344-466c-ac7d-e4b8656459d5", "title": "Will Terunofuji participate in all 15 matches at the 2024 July Grand Sumo Tournament (Nagoya basho)?", "body": "Must start all 15 matches to resolve Yes. Resolves No if he misses any match.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 04:16:47", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-14 06:19:50", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eliza/will-terunofuji-participate-in-all-viv1ynud4c", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-29 04:16:47+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-29 04:16:47+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-29 04:16:56+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-14 06:19:50+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-29 04:16:41+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-terunofuji-participate-in-all-viv1ynud4c", "market_prob": 0.9899999999999999, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must start all 15 matches to resolve Yes. Resolves No if he misses any match.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "cf7e1090-4e1b-4c8f-a737-5f8743efca2a", "title": "Will the head of the Secret Service resign within the next 90 days?", "body": "Will Kimberly Cheatle, the Director of the U.S. Secret Service, resign, be fired, or for any other reason no longer be the director of the Secret Service before October 12, 2024?", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 15:09:10", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-14 02:36:42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/bishopg/will-the-head-of-the-secret-service", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-23 15:09:10+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-23 15:09:10+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-23 15:09:10+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-14 02:36:42+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-23 14:37:02+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-head-of-the-secret-service", "market_prob": 0.99, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Kimberly Cheatle, the Director of the U.S. Secret Service, resign, be fired, or for any other reason no longer be the director of the Secret Service before October 12, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "0c426e5c-1920-431b-a82a-10b64ea1faa0", "title": "Did someone intentionally shoot at Trump on July 13th?", "body": "NYT: \"It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump\u2019s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear.\"\n\nResolves YES if someone intentionally shot a bullet or other bullet-like projectile* at Trump on July 13th. Resolves NO if accidental discharge or ricochet caused something to shoot towards Trump.\n\n*I am using bullet-like projectile to mean something that is for all intents and purposes is a bullet but may not technically be a bullet. For example, I would not count a BB gun pellet since it is not plausibly lethal like a bullet would be.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-24 02:41:42", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-13 22:21:58", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dismalscientist/did-someone-shoot-at-trump-on-july", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-24 02:41:42+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-24 02:41:42+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-24 02:41:42+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-13 22:21:58+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-23 21:03:50+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/did-someone-shoot-at-trump-on-july", "market_prob": 0.9903009377989832, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NYT: \"It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump\u2019s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if someone intentionally shot a bullet or other bullet-like projectile* at Trump on July 13th. Resolves NO if accidental discharge or ricochet caused something to shoot towards Trump.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*I am using bullet-like projectile to mean something that is for all intents and purposes is a bullet but may not technically be a bullet. For example, I would not count a BB gun pellet since it is not plausibly lethal like a bullet would be. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "262f26c7-b8a4-4995-ae61-99ff6a6b680f", "title": "If Joe Biden drops out, will a reliable media outlet cover the story at least 6 hours in advance?", "body": "Question resolves YES if a big and reliable media outlet like Associated Press News, CNN, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Reuters, or Washington Post covers the dropout with an unofficial confirmation at least 6 hours before President Joe Biden officially announces his dropout via letter, speech, etc.\n\nLocal news, conspiracy websites, or comments by individual users on Manifold will not be sufficient.\n\nThis market will be resolved as N/A if President Joe Biden does not drop out before the end of the National Democratic Convention.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-22 21:10:22", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-12 07:44:42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lion/if-joe-biden-drops-out-will-a-relia", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-21 18:14:32+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-22 21:10:22+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-21 18:14:32+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-12 07:44:42+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-21 15:36:46+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/if-joe-biden-drops-out-will-a-relia", "market_prob": 0.39999999999999997, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves YES if a big and reliable media outlet like Associated Press News, CNN, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Reuters, or Washington Post covers the dropout with an unofficial confirmation at least 6 hours before President Joe Biden officially announces his dropout via letter, speech, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Local news, conspiracy websites, or comments by individual users on Manifold will not be sufficient.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved as N/A if President Joe Biden does not drop out before the end of the National Democratic Convention.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "72940552-ade1-4439-808a-3a7d0e346208", "title": "Will TSLABull be profitable on the \"Will TSLABull be profitable on his TSLA market?\" market?", "body": "This market is about the following:\n@/ismellpillows/will-tslabull-be-profitable-on-his \nwhich in return refers to this market:\n@/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e \n\nThis market resolves Yes if after resolution of the first market mentioned above, created by @ismellpillows, user @MolbyDick is shown in the holders tab to have a profit > 0.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-09 16:02:02", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-11 17:39:16", "url": "https://manifold.markets/martydettmann/will-tslabull-be-profitable-on-the", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-08 21:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-09 16:02:02+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-08 21:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-11 17:39:16+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-07 14:07:21+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-tslabull-be-profitable-on-the", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000026, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is about the following:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "BvTK6G4LTEXpKCcWqASO", "label": "/ismellpillows/will-tslabull-be-profitable-on-his"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "which in return refers to this market:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f", "label": "/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves Yes if after resolution of the first market mentioned above, created by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "5pdlqOtBlpT1nNSbFLJk3G2Ozep2", "label": "ismellpillows"}}, {"text": ", user ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "nHX1qmzRItUHm3ifj7wNNR8hGf62", "label": "MolbyDick"}}, {"text": " is shown in the holders tab to have a profit > 0.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "905dce47-0ece-4306-966b-af78dd82b889", "title": "Will the Silver Close above $30.50 @4pm on August 9th, 2024. (According to Kitco.com trading price @ 4pm EST.)", "body": "This market will resolve yes if the price of 1 ounce of silver is above $30.50 (USD) at exactly 4pm Easter standard time on August 9th 2024. The price of 1 ounce of silver will be determined by the live ticker price per ounce listed on Kitco.com. Should the price be exactly 30.50 USD per ounce of silver at 4pm on August 9th the market will resolve as no. The question is particularly specific to the point ABOVE $30.50USD. \n\nShould the price be at 30.50 USD or below 30.50 USD the market will resolve as a NO. \n\nI will do my best to resolve this market on time, if it hasn\u2019t been resolved by 5pm EST time on August 9th 2024, please comment and remind me to resolve the marketplace! \n\nThank you", "resolution_date": "2024-08-09 22:24:38", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-10 20:31:45", "url": "https://manifold.markets/craigmcdermott/will-the-silver-close-above-3050-4p", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-09 22:24:38+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-09 22:24:38+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-09 22:24:38+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-10 20:31:45+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-09 22:23:01+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-silver-close-above-3050-4p", "market_prob": 0.03808398265237236, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve yes if the price of 1 ounce of silver is above $30.50 (USD) at exactly 4pm Easter standard time on August 9th 2024. The price of 1 ounce of silver will be determined by the live ticker price per ounce listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kitco.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Kitco.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Should the price be exactly 30.50 USD per ounce of silver at 4pm on August 9th the market will resolve as no. The question is particularly specific to the point ABOVE $30.50USD. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should the price be at 30.50 USD or below 30.50 USD the market will resolve as a NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will do my best to resolve this market on time, if it hasn\u2019t been resolved by 5pm EST time on August 9th 2024, please comment and remind me to resolve the marketplace! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thank you ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "f1ae08e0-f3dc-47fb-b57f-b16a59187c5e", "title": "Will either Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "body": "Resolves YES if Pogacar or Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Eliza/who-will-win-the-2024-tour-de-franc)", "resolution_date": "2024-07-21 19:28:14", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-10 14:47:56", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lion/will-either-tadej-pogacar-or-jonas", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-21 19:28:14+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-21 19:28:14+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-21 19:28:14+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-10 14:47:56+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-21 19:24:25+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-either-tadej-pogacar-or-jonas", "market_prob": 0.9899999999999999, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Pogacar or Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Eliza/who-will-win-the-2024-tour-de-franc", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "9a77440a-3207-45c5-ab88-1b6973e92f5f", "title": "H2H - Saratoga July 12th:  Will MISS JUSTIFY finish in front of STRIKER HAS DIAL in the Wilton Stakes?", "body": "The head-to-head (H2H) horse racing  market closes at the scheduled post time.\n\n \n\nIf there is a dead heat the market resolves to NO.  If either horse scratches the market also resolves to NO.\n\n\nThe market will be resolved with results published at https://www.equibase.com/", "resolution_date": "2024-07-12 21:21:24", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-09 17:50:44", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/h2h-saratoga-july-12th-will-miss-ju", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-12 21:12:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-12 21:21:24+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-12 21:21:32+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-09 17:50:44+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-12 18:27:05+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/h2h-saratoga-july-12th-will-miss-ju", "market_prob": 0.5119139656968855, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The head-to-head (H2H) horse racing  market closes at the scheduled post time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a dead heat the market resolves to NO.  If either horse scratches the market also resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.equibase.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.equibase.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "8fae5b43-e2dd-4773-b8a0-803f0665c901", "title": "H2H - Saratoga July 12th:  Will PIPSY (IRE) finish in front of CLOUDWALKER in the Coronation Cup Stakes?", "body": "The head-to-head (H2H) horse racing  market closes at the scheduled post time.\n\n \n\nIf there is a dead heat the market resolves to NO.  If either horse scratches the market also resolves to NO.\n\n\nThe market will be resolved with results published at https://www.equibase.com/", "resolution_date": "2024-07-12 21:48:25", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-09 17:39:34", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ovals/h2h-saratoga-july-12th-will-pipsy-i", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-12 21:47:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-12 21:48:25+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-12 21:47:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-09 17:39:34+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-12 21:33:44+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/h2h-saratoga-july-12th-will-pipsy-i", "market_prob": 0.17634730427570403, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The head-to-head (H2H) horse racing  market closes at the scheduled post time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a dead heat the market resolves to NO.  If either horse scratches the market also resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The market will be resolved with results published at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.equibase.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.equibase.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "14275ecc-5994-4c89-9480-bc6f42c45401", "title": "Will Mayor Wilson show at the Roswell City Council Open Forum on July 29th, 2024?", "body": "Resolves to yes if Mayor Kurt Wilson is physically at the Roswell City Council Meeting on July 29th, 2024.If he dials in on zoom, it will resolve to yes, but we need confirmation it's him (e.g., camera on, him speaking and identifying himself).\n\n Resolves to no if he isn't there. \n\nhttps://roswellcityga.iqm2.com/Citizens/Detail_Meeting.aspx?ID=3278", "resolution_date": "2024-07-29 23:58:22", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-09 16:26:13", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-mayor-wilson-show-at-the-roswe", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-29 23:58:22+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-29 23:58:22+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-29 23:58:22+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-09 16:26:13+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-26 10:39:57+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-mayor-wilson-show-at-the-roswe", "market_prob": 0.5235901585435151, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if Mayor Kurt Wilson is physically at the Roswell City Council Meeting on July 29th, 2024.If he dials in on zoom, it will resolve to yes, but we need confirmation it's him (e.g., camera on, him speaking and identifying himself).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Resolves to no if he isn't there. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://roswellcityga.iqm2.com/Citizens/Detail_Meeting.aspx?ID=3278", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://roswellcityga.iqm2.com/Citizens/Detail_Meeting.aspx?ID=3278", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "5692f26b-3a0d-4f38-8964-bc3c6274ad49", "title": "Will Taylor Swift cameo in Deadpool and Wolverine?", "body": "Resolves YES if she appears in the movie in any role, even if it is just her voice used for a character. Will still resolve YES if she is not credited on IMDB, if it is still confirmed by independent sources. \n\n[image]https://people.com/will-taylor-swift-play-dazzler-in-deadpool-and-wolverine-8651310", "resolution_date": "2024-07-24 14:33:43", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-09 06:08:30", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-cameo-in-deadpool", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-24 14:33:43+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-24 14:33:43+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-24 14:33:43+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-09 06:08:30+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-24 14:26:28+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-taylor-swift-cameo-in-deadpool", "market_prob": 0.010439434216147755, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if she appears in the movie in any role, even if it is just her voice used for a character. Will still resolve YES if she is not credited on IMDB, if it is still confirmed by independent sources. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "", "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F45SQVdmdlf.png?alt=media&token=bb815085-4467-450c-8d38-601f611c4955", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://people.com/will-taylor-swift-play-dazzler-in-deadpool-and-wolverine-8651310", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://people.com/will-taylor-swift-play-dazzler-in-deadpool-and-wolverine-8651310", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "4b1e7396-f4e3-4215-8a80-65cd2a78ec56", "title": "Will Biden drop out before July 20?", "body": "If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue the race before July 20 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-20 06:00:30", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-08 23:38:03", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mana/will-biden-drop-out-before-july-20", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-20 06:00:30+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-20 06:00:30+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-20 06:00:30+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-08 23:38:03+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-20 01:12:52+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-biden-drop-out-before-july-20", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000009, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue the race before July 20 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "163feb20-b27a-4876-890f-42bf046415ac", "title": "Will M. Night Shyamalan's \"Trap\" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 60%? (i.e. \"Fresh\")", "body": "\"Trap\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page\n\nThis resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 60% or higher, one week after release (August 9th). \n\nDetails \n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).\n\nFor example, here are the equivalent RT scores for some recent M. Night Shyamalan films:\n\n\"Knock at the Cabin\": 67%\n\n\"Old\": 50%\n\n\"Glass\": 37%\n\nThe \"Fresh\" designation in the title is just used for illustrative purposes, it won't resolve the market (AFAIK, movies >=60% are \"Fresh\", but there may be other restrictions).\n\nCurrently, the close date is set for resolution. If there's sufficient interest & a clear review embargo date is set, I might upgrade this to \"Plus\" and set the close date to be the review embargo\u2014so perhaps don't bet if you're concerned that the close date might shift up.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-09 15:23:18", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-08 20:31:34", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-m-night-shyamalans-trap-2024-h", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-09 15:23:18+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-09 15:23:18+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-09 15:46:53+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-08 20:31:34+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-09 15:21:45+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-m-night-shyamalans-trap-2024-h", "market_prob": 0.009999999999999998, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Trap\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/trap_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 60% or higher, one week after release (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "August 9th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, here are the equivalent RT scores for some recent M. Night Shyamalan films:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Knock at the Cabin\": 67%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/knock_at_the_cabin", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Old\": 50%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/old", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Glass\": 37%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/glass_2019", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The \"Fresh\" designation in the title is just used for illustrative purposes, it won't resolve the market (AFAIK, movies >=60% are \"Fresh\", but there may be other restrictions).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, the close date is set for resolution. If there's sufficient interest & a clear review embargo date is set, I might upgrade this to \"Plus\" and set the close date to be the review embargo\u2014so perhaps don't bet if you're concerned that the close date might shift up.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "5fa218b0-ab1c-49d4-9c98-e52548850ca4", "title": "Will Joe Biden have an in-person interview/conversation on camera for 45+ minutes, before the end of July 2024?", "body": "The most recent qualifying interview was Biden's appearance on The Howard Stern Show in April, when Biden answered questions for ~70 minutes. \n\nIf Biden appears in another such in-person interview for at least 45 minutes, this market resolves YES. If no qualifying interview is released before market close at the end of July, this market resolves NO. \n\nThis market does not include press conferences, speeches, rallies, fundraisers, town halls, etc. It can include appearances on a podcast or late night show, or an interview edited into a show like 60 minutes. However, there must be at least 45 minutes of new footage of Biden being interviewed in-person for such appearances to count. A 50 minute video might only feature 20 minutes of video of Biden being interviewed, and so would not count.\n\nFor context, Biden's interview with Stephanopoulos in July, his appearance on Jimmy Fallon in February, and his past appearances on 60 minutes have each had less than 30 minutes of video footage of Biden being interviewed. \n\nYou can find a list of Biden's interviews and their transcripts here.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 14:03:51", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-08 19:24:44", "url": "https://manifold.markets/manifoldpolitics/will-joe-biden-have-an-inperson-int", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-01 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-01 14:03:51+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-01 06:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-08 19:24:44+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-01 05:04:31+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-joe-biden-have-an-inperson-int", "market_prob": 0.010266426548651996, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The most recent qualifying interview was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Biden's appearance on The Howard Stern Show", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz45sMb4js8", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in April, when Biden answered questions for ~70 minutes. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden appears in another such in-person interview for at least 45 minutes, this market resolves YES. If no qualifying interview is released before market close at the end of July, this market resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market does not include press conferences, speeches, rallies, fundraisers, town halls, etc. It can include appearances on a podcast or late night show, or an interview edited into a show like 60 minutes. However, there must be at least 45 minutes of new footage of Biden being interviewed in-person for such appearances to count. A 50 minute video might only feature 20 minutes of video of Biden being interviewed, and so would not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, Biden's interview with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Stephanopoulos ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8LoAsHz-Mc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "in July, his appearance on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Jimmy ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mw0npm56wn0", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Fallon ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxuN3i84FNY", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "in February, and his past appearances on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "60 ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSAo_1mJg0g", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "minutes ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GBxCDsQFHE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "have each had less than 30 minutes of video footage of Biden being interviewed. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can find a list of Biden's interviews and their transcripts ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/biden/transcripts/interviews/?q=&f=interview&media=&type=&sort=&page=0&browse=1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "4e5beb16-6330-4b0f-8646-e61377870ced", "title": "Will the American League Team win the MLB All Star Game?", "body": "Resolves YES if the American Team wins the MLB All Star Game. I will not bet on this market.\n\nEdit (about 3 minutes after question creation): I changed the title from \"Will the American League Team with the MLB All Star Game.\" It was just a typo.\n\nEdit (7:53 ET July 16): Extended close time", "resolution_date": "2024-07-17 12:06:52", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-08 15:11:51", "url": "https://manifold.markets/qoiuoiuoiu/will-the-american-league-team-with", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-17 03:00:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-17 12:06:52+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-17 03:00:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-08 15:11:51+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-17 02:54:20+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-american-league-team-with", "market_prob": 0.9645699785306875, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the American Team wins the MLB All Star Game. I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit (about 3 minutes after question creation): I changed the title from \"Will the American League Team ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "with ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "the MLB All Star Game.\" It was just a typo.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit (7:53 ET July 16): Extended close time", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "29051615-9e5d-44bb-bf35-2bb84b2a05a1", "title": "Will Biden drop out before 7/13?", "body": "If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue his run as president before midnight July 13 Central Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-13 07:06:55", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-08 11:47:40", "url": "https://manifold.markets/manifest/will-biden-drop-out-before-713", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-13 07:06:55+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-13 07:06:55+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-13 07:06:55+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-08 11:47:40+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-12 16:10:06+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-biden-drop-out-before-713", "market_prob": 0.009999999999999992, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue his run as president before midnight July 13 Central Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "4b478305-6ad1-4408-8b16-abad68f3be2c", "title": "Will there be a red card in either semi-final of UEFA Euros 2024?", "body": "Will a red card be shown to any player or member of support team in either of the UEFA Euros 2024 semi-final games?\n\nA red card is shown either for serious fouls/misconduct, or as the result of a player receiving two 'warning' yellow cards. \n\nThe market will resolve YES if any member of any of the teams playing the semi-finals is shown a red card and sent off the pitch.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-11 08:16:56", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-06 18:43:31", "url": "https://manifold.markets/nico/will-there-be-a-red-card-in-either", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-10 22:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-11 08:16:56+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-10 22:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-06 18:43:31+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-10 20:56:13+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-there-be-a-red-card-in-either", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000009, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a red card be shown to any player or member of support team in either of the UEFA Euros 2024 semi-final games?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A red card is shown either for serious fouls/misconduct, or as the result of a player receiving two 'warning' yellow cards. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if any member of any of the teams playing the semi-finals is shown a red card and sent off the pitch.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "6b91e6a6-f21f-44b3-b645-d54686635be9", "title": "Will Biden be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 before August?", "body": "Resolves YES if the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to formally declare that \"the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office\" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President, before August 2024 (Eastern time).\n\nThe duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.\n\nBiden exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count. Biden invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count.\n\nContext: GOP lawmaker asks Merrick Garland to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office", "resolution_date": "2024-08-02 02:37:37", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-05 20:04:55", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-biden-be-declared-incapacitate-vuf1ucjs33", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-01 03:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-02 02:37:37+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-02 02:56:26+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-05 20:04:55+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-29 22:12:44+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-biden-be-declared-incapacitate-vuf1ucjs33", "market_prob": 0.014542593806172035, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_4:_Declaration_by_vice_president_and_cabinet_members_of_president's_inability", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "formally declare that \"the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office\" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President, before August 2024 (Eastern time).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count. Biden invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "GOP lawmaker asks Merrick Garland to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/gop-lawmaker-asks-merrick-garland-invoke-25th-amendment-remove-biden-o-rcna138112", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "e04685d7-375f-4a02-ad7e-bd6f19ae21bb", "title": "Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?", "body": "Politico reports:\n\nTwo safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they\u2019ve already written off Biden\u2019s chances to win in November.\n\nBehind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts.\n\nThis market resolves YES if a group of at least five named Democratic Party US House Members/US Senators work together to ask Joe Biden to consider ending his 2024 re-election campaign, or to urge him to do so, before Saturday July 20th (Pacific Time).\n\nThis could be by signing a letter like what is reported above, but it could also be in another form such as a group speaking with Biden in person and collectively asking him to drop out.\n\nThis market requires that all five individuals be part of the same group message. Five people separately telling reporters they think Biden should drop out is not sufficient for a YES resolution.\n\nReports of any number of unnamed democrats writing to Biden and asking him to step aside will not satisfy this market's criteria unless at least 5 qualifying names are later made public before this market's end date. In any ambiguous cases where such names are reported but not confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt, this market will err towards resolving NO. \n\nIf these criteria are not met before July 20th, this market resolves NO.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-23 22:24:44", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-05 18:47:55", "url": "https://manifold.markets/manifoldpolitics/will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-20 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-23 22:24:44+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-20 06:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-05 18:47:55+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-20 05:55:57+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-a-group-of-at-least-5-named-de", "market_prob": 0.15844805207094662, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Politico reports:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/03/house-democrats-biden-debate-00166533", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they\u2019ve already written off Biden\u2019s chances to win in November.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if a group of at least five named Democratic Party US House Members/US Senators work together to ask Joe Biden to consider ending his 2024 re-election campaign, or to urge him to do so, before Saturday July 20th (Pacific Time).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This could be by signing a letter like what is reported above, but it could also be in another form such as a group speaking with Biden in person and collectively asking him to drop out.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market requires that all five individuals be part of the same group message. Five people separately telling reporters they think Biden should drop out is not sufficient for a YES resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reports of any number of unnamed democrats writing to Biden and asking him to step aside will not satisfy this market's criteria unless at least 5 qualifying names are later made public before this market's end date. In any ambiguous cases where such names are reported but not confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt, this market will err towards resolving NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If these criteria are not met before July 20th, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "14814f35-c202-4751-b5fa-2800e47e8674", "title": "Will Biden remain President through end of July 2024?", "body": "Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then.\n\nTemporary transfer of power under the 25th amendement (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does not cause a YES resolution. (Acting President is different from President under the Constitution)", "resolution_date": "2024-08-02 02:37:53", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-05 16:35:49", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-biden-remain-president-through-i8q2v7zfqt", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-01 04:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-02 02:37:53+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-02 02:56:42+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-05 16:35:49+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-01 01:56:06+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-biden-remain-president-through-i8q2v7zfqt", "market_prob": 0.994752048426671, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendement (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " cause a YES resolution. (Acting President is different from President under the Constitution)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "05af74d0-44e0-47c1-beeb-ec4b5a7487ea", "title": "Will I earn a medal at the International Geography Championship?", "body": "I'm going to the International Geography Championship, which will last from July 13th to 21st in Vienna, Austria, after doing well in the Chinese national championship (conducted in English), winning several medals there. \n\nResolves YES if I get a medal. Gold, silver and bronze all count.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-25 14:02:42", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-05 02:09:03", "url": "https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-i-earn-a-medal-at-the-internat", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-21 15:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-25 14:02:42+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-21 15:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-05 02:09:03+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-21 15:55:10+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-i-earn-a-medal-at-the-internat", "market_prob": 0.4495869726533969, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm going to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "International Geography Championship", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://geochampionships.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", which will last from July 13th to 21st in Vienna, Austria, after doing well in the Chinese national championship (conducted in English), winning several medals there. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if I get a medal. Gold, silver and bronze all count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "9d0e640f-7333-46c4-91c2-7bf26ce0da88", "title": "Will the linked market get at least 377 traders by end of July 15? (78 more!)", "body": "Sorry to my extremely loyal followers, I\u2019ve become embroiled in some market shenanigans, so I\u2019m making this market.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira_/how-many-traders-will-this-market-g)Resolves YES if the market embedded above has 377 traders before market close (July 15, 11:59 PM Pacific Time). Resolves NO otherwise.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-16 13:43:45", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-04 18:36:42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/joshuab/will-the-linked-market-get-at-least-98nug1q1kr", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-16 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-16 13:43:45+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-16 06:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-04 18:36:42+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-16 06:41:41+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-linked-market-get-at-least-98nug1q1kr", "market_prob": 0.01229640515509848, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sorry to my ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "extremely loyal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " followers, I\u2019ve become embroiled in some market shenanigans, so I\u2019m making this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira_/how-many-traders-will-this-market-g", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the market embedded above has 377 traders before market close (July 15, 11:59 PM Pacific Time). Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "ebec7f78-255b-4404-99aa-64437177e548", "title": "Facing Joe Biden instead of a generic Democrat, will Trump gain at least 3% among Manifold respondents?", "body": "There are two Manifold polls posted, which both close on July 6.  One of the polls asks Manifold respondents to vote with Joe Biden on a hypothetical ballot, and another asks respondents to vote with a generic Democrat on the hypothetical ballot.\n\n@/SteveSokolowski/1-of-2-given-these-choices-who-woul@/SteveSokolowski/2-of-2-given-these-choices-who-woul \n\nPublic opinion polls consistently show Joe Biden losing to Donald Trump outside the margin of error, but every other Democrat hypothetically surveyed polls ahead or within the margin of error.  Are Manifold respondents representative of the general public?\n\nThis market will resolve YES if the percentage of votes for Donald Trump in poll 1 exceeds that in poll 2 by 3% or more when both polls close.\n\nThe formula for determining the percentage of votes for Trump is (Trump / (Trump + (the Democrat in the question) + Someone else)).  The answer is YES if this formula for poll 1 - the formula for poll 2 >= 0.03.  Otherwise, it is NO.\n\nThe polls and this question will never resolve N/A, and will remain open until the close time no matter what.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-07 11:47:38", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-04 11:04:00", "url": "https://manifold.markets/stevesokolowski/comparing-joe-biden-to-a-generic-de", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-07 03:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-07 11:47:38+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-07 03:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-04 11:04:00+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-07 00:42:13+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/comparing-joe-biden-to-a-generic-de", "market_prob": 0.8216526886214566, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are two Manifold polls posted, which both close on July 6.  One of the polls asks Manifold respondents to vote with Joe Biden on a hypothetical ballot, and another asks respondents to vote with a generic Democrat on the hypothetical ballot.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bbyaeg1p8y", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/1-of-2-given-these-choices-who-woul"}}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zmq0xqxk8a", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/2-of-2-given-these-choices-who-woul"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Public opinion polls consistently show Joe Biden losing to Donald Trump outside the margin of error, but every other Democrat hypothetically surveyed polls ahead or within the margin of error.  Are Manifold respondents representative of the general public?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the percentage of votes for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Donald Trump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " in poll 1 exceeds that in poll 2 by 3% or more when both polls close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The formula for determining the percentage of votes for Trump is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(Trump / (Trump + (the Democrat in the question) + Someone else))", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ".  The answer is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if this formula for poll 1 - the formula for poll 2 >= 0.03.  Otherwise, it is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The polls and this question will never resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A, ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "and will remain open until the close time no matter what.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "e27cae29-7196-41cc-8540-e18124f00d4a", "title": "Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee be a Woman?", "body": "Will resolve \u201cyes\u201d if/when the Democratic delegates select a female presidential nominee for the 2024 election.\n\nWill resolve \u201cno\u201d if/when the Democratic delegates select a male presidential nominee for the 2024 election.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-06 13:22:40", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-03 21:21:49", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pluffasmr/will-the-2024-democratic-presidenti-ay3eumqvdl", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-06 13:22:40+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-06 13:22:40+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-06 13:22:40+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-03 21:21:49+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-06 11:59:50+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-the-2024-democratic-presidenti-ay3eumqvdl", "market_prob": 0.9899999999999999, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve \u201cyes\u201d if/when the Democratic delegates select a female presidential nominee for the 2024 election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve \u201cno\u201d if/when the Democratic delegates select a male presidential nominee for the 2024 election.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "ef751c9a-271b-45c8-a5e3-508320f19aa1", "title": "Will Joe Biden announce that he is both dropping out and resigning from the presidency before the end of July?", "body": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden announces both that he is no longer running for re-election and that he will be resigning and not completing his current term. These announcements before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time, but he does not have to have formally resigned and be out of office before the end of July. An announcement of his intention to do so is sufficient to resolve this market.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves NO on August 1st.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-01 14:03:59", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-03 16:32:13", "url": "https://manifold.markets/manifoldpolitics/will-joe-biden-announce-that-he-is", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-01 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-01 14:03:59+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-01 14:07:20+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-03 16:32:13+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-01 01:26:20+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-joe-biden-announce-that-he-is", "market_prob": 0.00889507703335847, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden announces both that he is no longer running for re-election and that he will be resigning and not completing his current term. These announcements before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time, but he does not have to have formally resigned and be out of office before the end of July. An announcement of his intention to do so is sufficient to resolve this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market resolves NO on August 1st. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "df71a475-c0e9-443e-a354-d69bee9b5505", "title": "Will this d20 roll be even?", "body": "I will roll the dice sometime the day the question closes and resolve right when i roll it(in order to be fair i will not invest in this market). resolves yes if even and resolves no if odd.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-07 02:48:04", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-03 07:50:03", "url": "https://manifold.markets/megacoolness/will-this-d20-roll-be-even", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-05 13:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-07 02:48:04+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-05 13:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-03 07:50:03+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-05 13:17:36+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-this-d20-roll-be-even", "market_prob": 0.4700000000000002, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will roll the dice sometime the day the question closes and resolve right when i roll it(in order to be fair i will not invest in this market). resolves yes if even and resolves no if odd.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "25e71629-d816-470b-b1b2-c1a63f4a1dd2", "title": "Will there be another Democratic party presidential debate?", "body": "Resolves YES if there is a debate between potential Democratic nominees (e.g. Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Biden etc.) prior to the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Resolves NO otherwise.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-12 04:01:42", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-02 19:28:56", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dismalscientist/will-there-be-a-debate-between-pote", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-12 04:01:42+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-12 04:01:42+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-12 04:01:42+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-02 19:28:56+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-06 00:54:34+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-there-be-a-debate-between-pote", "market_prob": 0.010000000000000009, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there is a debate between potential Democratic nominees (e.g. Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Biden etc.) prior to the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "ef25f092-b555-445f-a354-390ae296192d", "title": "Will at least 30% of Manifold respondents agree that weak AGI had been achieved before July 23, 2024?", "body": "[image]Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask \"has weak AGI been achieved,\" rather than providing a definition of the term. The goal is that given that the term is so broad, the only way to characterize AI progress is also to allow respondents to vote based upon their own understanding.\n\nProgress has been steady.  The previous polls are referenced here:\n\n@/SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp  (Answer: 15)\n\n@/SteveSokolowski/june-2024-has-weak-agi-been-achieve  (Answer: 27)\n\nThe previous markets on this topic, which significantly understimated Manifold's belief in AI progress, were:\n\n@/SteveSokolowski/what-percentage-of-manifold-poll-re \n\n@/SteveSokolowski/will-at-least-20-of-manifold-respon \n\nThe polls will not reference any specific model, and will not define \"AGI\" except to state that the poll does not require that the software system be able to manipulate the physical world. The polls open on the 23rd of each month and close on the 30th.\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if the July 2024 poll results in a ratio of YES/(NO + YES) greater than or equal to 0.3. The \"no opinion\" respondents will be ignored. Otherwise, this question will resolve to NO.\n\nSee also:\n\n@/SteveSokolowski/will-one-of-the-monthly-has-weak-ag", "resolution_date": "2024-07-31 10:45:57", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-02 11:42:56", "url": "https://manifold.markets/stevesokolowski/will-at-least-30-of-manifold-respon", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-31 03:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-31 10:45:57+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-23 17:30:09+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-02 11:42:56+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-31 00:49:14+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-at-least-30-of-manifold-respon", "market_prob": 0.09225813891013784, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fcd_w_FpjaI.png?alt=media&token=1fcfcfb5-af35-46f7-a73b-48f7d31c53e6", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every month, a Manifold poll is being posted to gain the consensus view of progress towards AGI. Unlike many of the markets and questions on Manifold, these polls will simply ask \"has weak AGI been achieved,\" rather than providing a definition of the term. The goal is that given that the term is so broad, the only way to characterize AI progress is also to allow respondents to vote based upon their own understanding.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Progress has been steady.  The previous polls are referenced here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "HfUm6MvM7gwfd5GFBy8h", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/did-openai-achieve-weak-agi-with-gp"}}, {"text": "  (Answer: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "15)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1ft60lrubs", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/june-2024-has-weak-agi-been-achieve"}}, {"text": "  (Answer: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "27)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The previous markets on this topic, which significantly understimated Manifold's belief in AI progress, were:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "teXTAdAjhltVnXPT0Om3", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/what-percentage-of-manifold-poll-re"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wg9fmS1fE7n8UJsrqLbO", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/will-at-least-20-of-manifold-respon"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The polls will not reference any specific model, and will not define \"AGI\" except to state that the poll does not require that the software system be able to manipulate the physical world. The polls open on the 23rd of each month and close on the 30th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the July 2024 poll results in a ratio of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "/(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO + YES) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "greater than or equal to 0.3. The \"no opinion\" respondents will be ignored. Otherwise, this question will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qrbTyNNkM0EvToS2N7Ox", "label": "/SteveSokolowski/will-one-of-the-monthly-has-weak-ag"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "3dc2ce34-ed05-4b84-bf49-62176dfbb6aa", "title": "[Metaculus] Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democra...nomination for President?", "body": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25755/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.\n\nTo qualify for a Yes resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.\n\nIf such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as No.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-15 10:11:26", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-02 10:27:38", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-joe-biden-announce-b", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-15 10:11:26+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-15 10:11:26+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-15 10:11:26+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-02 10:27:38+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-14 16:35:24+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/metaculus-will-joe-biden-announce-b", "market_prob": 0.01000000000000004, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25755/biden-announces-drop-out-before-july-15-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25755/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To qualify for a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25755/biden-announces-drop-out-before-july-15-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "a747caba-a0ac-4f6d-97f4-e1c20440f7b4", "title": "Will \"Twisters\" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 75%? (\"Certified Fresh\")", "body": "\"Twisters\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page\n\nThis resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 75% or higher, one week after release (July 26th). \n\nDetails \n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).\n\nFor example, the original \"Twister\" (1996) currently has a Tomatometer of 63%. This is the equivalent score I will use.\n\n\"Certified Fresh\" is just used for illustrative purposes (AFAIK, it requires >=75% Tomatometer, but there might be other restrictions\u2014the market resolves solely based on the displayed score).\n\n\"Twisters\" (2024) is a standalone sequel to the 1996 original, directed by Lee Isaac Chung (\"Minari\"), starring Glen Powell (\"Top Gun: Maverick\") and Daisy Edgar Jones (\"Normal People\").", "resolution_date": "2024-07-27 19:23:51", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-01 17:32:51", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ziddletwix/will-twisters-2024-have-a-rotten-to", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-27 19:23:51+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-27 19:23:51+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-27 19:25:08+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-01 17:32:51+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-27 19:23:38+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-twisters-2024-have-a-rotten-to", "market_prob": 0.9899999999999999, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Twisters\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/twisters", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 75% or higher, one week after release (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "July 26th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example, the original \"Twister\" (1996) currently has a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomatometer of 63%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1071167-twister", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". This is the equivalent score I will use.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Certified Fresh\" is just used for illustrative purposes (AFAIK, it requires >=75% Tomatometer, but there might be other restrictions\u2014the market resolves solely based on the displayed score).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Twisters\" (2024) is a standalone sequel to the 1996 original, directed by Lee Isaac Chung (\"Minari\"), starring Glen Powell (\"Top Gun: Maverick\") and Daisy Edgar Jones (\"Normal People\"). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": true}
{"id": "702e0be5-7e59-47f0-b29c-990767974497", "title": "Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal during Euro 2024?", "body": "He has yet to score a goal during the European Cup. Will he end up goalless or will he score?\n\nWill resolve YES if he scores according to https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/ *\n\nWill resolve NO if he doesn't. \n\n*Penalties scored during penalty shoot-outs are not counted towards goals scored by individual players in their goal records. Own goals also do not count. \n\n[link preview]", "resolution_date": "2024-07-05 21:43:26", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-01 13:35:53", "url": "https://manifold.markets/sindre/will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-a-goal-2u4gnjta5a", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-05 21:43:26+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-05 21:43:26+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-05 21:43:29+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-01 13:35:53+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-05 21:43:26+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-a-goal-2u4gnjta5a", "market_prob": 0.04199926299328528, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He has yet to score a goal during the European Cup. Will he end up goalless or will he score?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if he scores according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " *", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if he doesn't. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Penalties scored during penalty shoot-outs are not counted towards goals scored by individual players in their goal records. Own goals also do not count. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "4cfdf48d-17d1-4c06-9e57-aaa6cfd6a9e8", "url": "https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/", "image": "https://img.uefa.com/imgml/uefacom/euro2024/rebrand/og-image.png", "title": "Player Goals Stats | UEFA EURO 2024", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Visit UEFA.com for comprehensive Player Goals Stats for EURO 2024.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "492f11a9-effa-45fb-9c59-98d57e1583a6", "title": "Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21?", "body": "Clone of (and resolves identically to) https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151\n\nThe Boeing Starliner spacecraft, which arrived at the ISS on June 6, 2024, with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, must depart within 45 days due to the Harmony module's limited fuel.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Boeing Starliner spacecraft departs the International Space Station (ISS) with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore by 11:59 PM ET on July 21, 2024. \n\nThe Starliner will be considered to have departed if it has undocked from the ISS and begun its return journey to Earth.\n\nThe resolution source will be official announcements from NASA and/or Boeing, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-21 21:42:14", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-07-01 03:40:11", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jim/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boein", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-21 11:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-21 21:42:14+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-21 11:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-07-01 03:40:11+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-21 08:49:00+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boein", "market_prob": 0.010150701783479684, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clone of (and resolves identically to) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Boeing Starliner spacecraft, which arrived at the ISS on June 6, 2024, with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, must depart within 45 days due to the Harmony module's limited fuel.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Boeing Starliner spacecraft departs the International Space Station (ISS) with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore by 11:59 PM ET on July 21, 2024. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Starliner will be considered to have departed if it has undocked from the ISS and begun its return journey to Earth.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The resolution source will be official announcements from NASA and/or Boeing, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "e2b7b20f-b16c-4027-a263-810930e3dc39", "title": "Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 40 and 41?", "body": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.\n\n\u201cYES\u201d = \u201cYes, there will be a break after chapter 40\u201d\n\n\u201cNO\u201d = \u201cNo, there will not be a break after chapter 40\u201d\n\nPlan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-08 14:23:59", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-06-30 22:01:11", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dwax/will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-7uerbr4ctw", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-08 06:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-08 14:23:59+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-08 06:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-06-30 22:01:11+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-07 16:36:46+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-7uerbr4ctw", "market_prob": 0.4754897000558285, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cYES\u201d = \u201cYes, there will be a break after chapter 40\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cNO\u201d = \u201cNo, there will not be a break after chapter 40\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "09234a88-8407-4f43-9ad4-5843f2b686c8", "title": "Will Uruguay rotate four or more starters (from the Panama match) in their Copa America match against the US?", "body": "Resolves YES if four or more players who started against Panama do not start against the US.", "resolution_date": "2024-07-05 18:48:51", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-06-29 08:04:24", "url": "https://manifold.markets/charlie/will-uruguay-rotate-four-or-more-st", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-07-05 18:48:51+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-07-05 18:48:51+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-07-05 18:48:51+00:00", "created_time": "2024-06-29 08:04:24+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-07-05 00:03:00+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-uruguay-rotate-four-or-more-st", "market_prob": 0.01000000000000002, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if four or more players who started against Panama do not start against the US. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}
{"id": "322a1442-af9b-4d07-8915-38f7e9a4c497", "title": "Will Disney announce a new version of Peoplemover for Disneyland at D23 2024?", "body": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces that they are working on a new version of the Peoplemover at D23 in the Disney Experiences Showcase on August 10, 2024.\n\nTo be considered a new version of the Peoplemover, this attraction would need to be a ride that has portions with views above Tomorrowland AND has at least two of the following characteristics:\n\n1) includes \"Peoplemover\" or \"WEDway\" in the name\n\n2) uses existing Peoplemover track structure for a portion of the ride\n\n3) rebuilds portions of the Peoplemover track on the same alignment for the new ride\n\n4) has a station in the old peoplemover station building\n\n5) rebuilds the old peoplemover station with approximately similar characteristics and location \n\nThis can resolve to YES if a new ride was announced that uses portions of the Peoplemover track and station as a part of an Incredibles ride, but would resolve to NO if an attraction called Peoplemover was announced that took place entirely inside of a show building, offering no aerial views of Tomorrowland.", "resolution_date": "2024-08-12 13:16:54", "question_type": "binary", "data_source": "manifold", "created_date": "2024-06-28 11:47:57", "url": "https://manifold.markets/twirlnhurl/will-disney-announce-a-new-version", "metadata": {"topics": [], "close_time": "2024-08-11 03:59:00+00:00", "resolve_time": "2024-08-12 13:16:54+00:00", "last_updated_time": "2024-08-11 03:59:00+00:00", "created_time": "2024-06-28 11:47:57+00:00", "last_bet_time": "2024-08-11 00:40:43+00:00", "api_url": "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/will-disney-announce-a-new-version", "market_prob": 0.3976147264329224, "full_description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Disney announces that they are working on a new version of the Peoplemover at D23 in the Disney Experiences Showcase on August 10, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be considered a new version of the Peoplemover, this attraction would need to be a ride that has portions with views above Tomorrowland AND has at least two of the following characteristics:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1) includes \"Peoplemover\" or \"WEDway\" in the name", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2) uses existing Peoplemover track structure for a portion of the ride", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3) rebuilds portions of the Peoplemover track on the same alignment for the new ride", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4) has a station in the old peoplemover station building", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5) rebuilds the old peoplemover station with approximately similar characteristics and location ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This can resolve to YES if a new ride was announced that uses portions of the Peoplemover track and station as a part of an Incredibles ride, but would resolve to NO if an attraction called Peoplemover was announced that took place entirely inside of a show building, offering no aerial views of Tomorrowland. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "background_info": ""}, "resolution": false}